Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

Classical Biological Control for the Protection of Natural Ecosystems.

Of the 70 cases of classical biological control for the protection of nature found in our review, there were fewer projects against insect targets (21) than against invasive plants (49), in part, because many insect biological control projects were carried out against agricultural pests, while nearly all projects against plants targeted invasive plants in natural ecosystems. Of 21 insect projects, 81% (17) provided benefits to protection of biodiversity, while 48% (10) protected products harvested from natural systems, and 5% (1) preserved ecosystem services, with many projects contributing to more than one goal. In contrast, of the 49 projects against invasive plants, 98% (48) provided benefits to protection of biodiversity, while 47% (23) protected products, and 25% (12) preserved ecosystem services, again with many projects contributing to several goals. We classified projects into complete control (pest generally no longer important), partial control (control in some areas but not others), and "in progress," for projects in development for which outcomes do not yet exist. For insects, of the 21 projects discussed, 59% (13) achieved complete control of the target pest, 18% (4) provided partial control, and 41% (9) are still in progress. By comparison, of the 49 invasive plant projects considered, 27% (13) achieved complete control, while 33% (16) provided partial control, and 47% (24) are still in progress. For both categories of pests, some projects' success ratings were scored twice when results varied by region. We found approximately twice as many projects directed against invasive plants than insects and that protection of biodiversity was the most frequent benefit of both insect and plant projects. Ecosystem service protection was provided in the fewest cases by either insect or plant biological control agents, but was more likely to be provided by projects directed against invasive plants, likely because of the strong effects plants exert on landscapes. Rates of complete success appeared to be higher for insect than plant targets (59% vs 27%), perhaps because most often herbivores gradually weaken, rather than outright kill, their hosts, which is not the case for natural enemies directed against pest insects. For both insect and plant biological control, nearly half of all projects reviewed were listed as currently in progress, suggesting that the use of biological control for the protection of wildlands is currently very active.

Cynodon dactylon, Green Couch Grass, Bermuda Grass 'Grand Prix'

‘Grand Prix’ is a selection from a cross between ‘Wintergreen’ and ‘Couch 5’ (also designated C5). ‘Couch 5’ was a selection from an earlier series of crosses by the breeder between ‘Wintergreen’ and a number of Cynodon dactylon accessions, which were collected by the breeder from the Mornington Peninsula area of Victoria between 1986 and 1990. C5 was an experimental breeding line, and was not subsequently reserved as vegetative germplasm. Living material of C5 is no longer in existence. Following the crossing of ‘Couch 5’ and ‘Wintergreen’ in 1998, the resultant seed was germinated on moist blotting paper. Individual seedlings, a total of 150 in number, were planted into 150mm pots and these plants observed during 1998 and 1999. During the summer of 1999-2000, the majority of the seedling plants were culled on the basis of their shoot density, leaf texture, internode length, and colour. In the spring of 2000, the remaining 20 potted seedlings were planted individually into 4m2 plots at the Evergreen Turf farm at Pakenham (Victoria), and allowed to expand fully across these plots. The final selection of Seedling 12 (later designated DN12) in late 2002 was based on shoot density, leaf colour, turf quality, and reduced thatch accumulation as expressed in these plots. Propagation: the original plant has been multiplied through four (4) vegetative expansions prior to PBR application without showing any discernible off types. Breeder: David Nickson, Frankston, VIC. PBR Certificate Number 3133, Application Number 2005/291, granted 12 September 2006.

Cynodon dactylon, Green Couch Grass, Bermuda Grass 'Winter Gem'

‘Winter Gem’ is a selection from a cross between ‘Wintergreen’ and Couch 5 (also designated C5). Couch 5 was a selection from an earlier series of crosses by the breeder between ‘Wintergreen’ and a number of Cynodon dactylon accessions, which were collected by the breeder from the Mornington Peninsula area of Victoria between 1986 and 1990. C5 was an experimental breeding line, and was not subsequently reserved as vegetative germplasm. Living material of C5 is no longer in existence. Following the crossing of Couch 5 and ‘Wintergreen’ in 1998, the resultant seed was germinated on moist blotting paper. Individual seedlings, a total of 150 in number, were planted into 150mm pots and these plants observed during 1998 and 1999. During the summer of 1999-2000, the majority of the seedling plants were culled on the basis of their shoot density, leaf texture, internode length, and colour. In the spring of 2000, the remaining 20 potted seedlings were planted individually into 4m2 plots at the Evergreen Turf farm at Pakenham (Victoria), and allowed to expand fully across these plots. The final selection of Seedling 9 (later designated DN9) in late 2002 was based on shoot density, leaf texture, and retention of winter colour as expressed in these plots. Propagation: The original plant had been multiplied through four (4) vegetative expansions prior to PBR application without showing any discernible off types. Breeder: David Nickson, Frankston, VIC. PBR Certificate Number 3132, Application Number 2005/290, granted 11 September 2006.

Morphological and developmental comparisons of seven greens quality hybrid bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon (L.)Pers.x C transvaalensis Burtt-Davy

Fine-textured hybrid bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers. x C. transvaalensis Burtt-Davy] cultivars have been widely used for golf putting greens and lawn bowls greens in warm-climate areas for more than 40 years. During the past decade, the choice of cultivar for professional turfgrass managers has been expanded by a range of secondgeneration hybrid bermudagrasses, which differ from the first-generation cultivars ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf ’ in their management requirements. In this paper, we present comparative morphological and developmental data for seven cultivars (Champion Dwarf, FloraDwarf, MS-Supreme, Novotek, Tifdwarf, TifEagle, Tifgreen) grown in spaced plant and sward experiments at Cleveland, Australia (27º32’S lat, 153º15’E long, 25 masl). The four ‘ultradwarf ’ cultivars (Champion Dwarf, MS-Supreme, FloraDwarf, TifEagle) showed slower vertical extension and produced fewer inflorescences than Tifdwarf, Tifgreen, and Novotek. However, in terms of the length of stolon internodes and their overall rate of lateral spread, Champion Dwarf, FloraDwarf, and TifEagle were comparable to Tifdwarf; MS-Supreme (with longer internodes) spread faster laterally, though slower than Tifgreen (which had the longest stolon internodes). In unmown swards, the four ultradwarfs produced shorter leaves than Tifgreen, Tifdwarf, and Novotek, but only Champion Dwarf produced significantly narrower leaves than Tifgreen, Tifdwarf, and Novotek, with TifEagle leaves also significantly narrower than those of Tifgreen and Novotek. Minimum threshold temperatures for growth were approximately 9° to 10°C (air temperature) and 15° to 16°C at 10 cm soil depth.

New Modified Dipping Method Using 4-hexylresorcinol for Preventing Blackspot Formation in Prawns.

Industry acceptance of alternative sulphite treatments for preventing blackspot in prawns is limited. This study demonstrated that dipping prawns (Penaeus monodon and Fenneropenaeus merguiensis) in a less concentrated solution for longer times provides better control of blackspot formation than the recommended 2 minute dip in 50 mg/L 4-hexylresorcinol. Protection improved as modified dipping times and solution concentrations increased. Blackspot protection provided by most of the modified dip methods was more effective than a 1 minute dip in 1% sodium metabisulphite. The recommended 2 minute dip method should be limited to 125 kg when used on consecutive 25-kg batches of prawns. Yields increased by less than 10% even after 72-hour exposure in the modified dip. The new dipping method meets most international residue standards when applying the modified treatments evaluated.

Reproductive Biology of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata and Effective Pollination across its Native Range.

The spotted gum species complex represents a group of four eucalypt hardwood taxa that have a native range that spans the east coast of Australia, with a morphological cline from Victoria to northern Queensland. Of this group, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV) is widespread in south-eastern Queensland and northern New South Wales. It is currently the most commonly harvested native hardwood in Queensland. However, little basic knowledge of the reproductive biology of the species is available to inform genetic improvement and resource management programmes. Here we take an integrative approach, using both field and molecular data, to identify ecological factors important to mating patterns in native populations of CCV. Field observation of pollinator visitation and flowering phenology of 20 trees showed that foraging behaviour of pollinator guilds varies depending on flowering phenology and canopy structure. A positive effect of tree mean flowering effort was found on insect visitation, while bat visitation was predicted by tree height and by the number of trees simultaneously bearing flowers. Moreover, introduced honeybees were observed frequently, performing 73% of detected flower visits. Conversely, nectar-feeding birds and mammals were observed sporadically with lorikeets and honeyeaters each contributing to 11% of visits. Fruit bats, represented solely by the grey-headed flying fox, performed less than 2% of visits. Genotyping at six microsatellite markers in 301 seeds from 17 families sampled from four of Queensland's native forests showed that CCV displays a mixed-mating system that is mostly outcrossing (tm = 0.899 ± 0.021). Preferential effective pollination from near-neighbours was detected by means of maximum-likelihood paternity analysis with up to 16% of reproduction events resulting from selfing. Forty to 48% of fertilising pollen was also carried from longer distance (>60 m). Marked differences in foraging behaviour and visitation frequency between observed pollinator guilds suggests that the observed dichotomy of effective pollen movement in spotted gums may be due to frequent visit from introduced honeybees favouring geitonogamy and sporadic visits from honeyeaters and fruit bats resulting in potential long-distance pollinations.

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

Development of a DNA based aging technique for use in fisheries assessments. Final report, Australian Fisheries Research and Development Corporation Project 2007/033.

The productivity of a fisheries resource can be quantified from estimates of recruitment, individual growth and natural and fisheries-related mortality, assuming the spatial extent of the resource has been quantified and there is minimal immigration or emigration. The sustainability of a fisheries resource is facilitated by management controls such as minimum and maximum size limits and total allowable catch. Minimum size limits are often set to allow individuals the opportunity to reproduce at least once before the chance of capture. Total allowable catches are a proportion of the population biomass, which is estimated based on known reproduction, recruitment, mortality and growth rates. In some fisheries, however, management actions are put in place without quantification of the resource through the stock assessment process. This occurs because species-specific information, for example individual growth, may not be available. In these circumstances, management actions need to be precautionary to protect against future resource collapse, but this often means that the resource is lightly exploited. Consequently, the productivity of the resource is not fully realised. Australia’s most valuable fisheries are invertebrate fisheries (Australian Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, 2008). For example, Australian fisheries (i.e. excluding aquaculture) production of crustaceans (largely prawns, rock lobster and crab) was 41,000 tonnes in 2006/7, worth $778 million. Production from mollusc (largely abalone, scallops, oysters and squid) fisheries was 39,000 tonnes, worth $502 million. Together, in 2006/7 crustacean and mollusc fisheries represented 58% of the total value of Australian wild fisheries production. Sustainable management of Australia’s invertebrate fisheries is frustrated by the lack of data on species-specific growth rates. This project investigated a new method to estimate age, and hence individual growth rates, in invertebrate fisheries species. The principle behind the new aging method was that telomeres (i.e. DNA end-caps of chromosomes) get shorter as an individual gets older. We studied commercial crustacean and molluscan species. A vertebrate fish species (silver perch, Bidyanus bidyanus) was used as a control to standardise our work against the literature. We found a clear relationship between telomere length and shell size for temperate abalone (Haliotis rubra). Further research is recommended before the method can be implemented to assist management of wildharvested abalone populations. Age needs to be substituted for shell size in the relationship and it needs to be studied for abalone from several regions. This project showed that telomere length declined with increasing age in Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) and was affected by regional variation. A relationship was not apparent between telomere length and age (or size as a surrogate for age) for crustacean species (school prawns, Metapenaeus macleayi; eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi; southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii; and spanner crabs, Ranina ranina). For school prawns, there was no difference between telomere length in males and females. Further research is recommended, however, as telomeric DNA from crustaceans was difficult to analyse using the terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. Telomere lengths of spanner crabs and lobsters were at the upper limit of resolution of the assay used and results were affected by degradation and possible contamination of telomeric DNA. It is possible that telomere length is an indicator of remaining lifespan in molluscan and crustacean individuals, as suggested for some vertebrate species (e.g. Monaghan, 2010). Among abalone of similar shell size and among lobster pueruli, there was evidence of individuals having significantly longer or shorter telomeres than the group average. At a population level, this may be a surrogate for estimates of future natural mortality, which may have usefulness in the management of those populations. The method used to assay telomere length (terminal restriction fragment assay) performed adequately for most species, but it was too expensive and time-consuming to be considered a useful tool for gathering information for fisheries management. Research on alternative methods is strongly recommended.

Effect of sorghum ergot (Claviceps africana) on the performance of steers (Bos taurus) in a feedlot.

The effect of ergot (Claviceps africana) in naturally infected sorghum was assessed in feedlot rations. Thirty-two Hereford steers (Bos taurus) in individual pens with access to shade were adapted to feedlot conditions and then offered one of four rations containing 0, 4.4, 8.8 or 17.6 mg/kg of ergot alkaloids (84% dihydroergosine, 10% dihydroelymoclavine and 6% festuclavine), equivalent to ~0, 10, 20 or 40 g/kg ergot (sclerotia/sphacelia) in the rations. These rations were withdrawn at noon on the second day because of severe hyperthermia and almost complete feed refusal in ergot-fed steers. After recovery on ergot-free rations for 5 days, treatment groups were incrementally introduced, over a further 3–12 days, to rations containing 0, 1.1, 2.2 or 4.4 mg/kg of alkaloids (~0, 2.5, 5 or 10 g/kg ergot, respectively). Relative exposure to ergot was maintained, so that the zero- (control), low-, medium- and high-ergot groups remained so. Steers were individually fed ad libitum, and water was freely available. Steers in all ergot-fed groups had significantly elevated rectal temperatures at 0800–1000 hours, even when the temperature–humidity index was only moderate (~70), and displayed other signs of hyperthermia (increased respiration rate, mouth breathing, excessive salivation and urination), as the temperature–humidity index increased to 73–79 during the day. Plasma prolactin was significantly reduced in ergot-fed groups. Voluntary feed intakes (liveweight basis) of the ergot-fed groups were significantly reduced, averaging 94, 86 and 86%, respectively, of the feed intakes of the control group. Hair coats were rough. While the control steers grew from a mean initial liveweight of 275 kg to a suitable slaughter weight of 455 kg in 17 weeks (growth rate 1.45 kg/day), ergot-fed groups gained only 0.77–1.10 kg/day and took at least 5 weeks longer to reach the slaughter weight, despite removal of ergot at the same time as control steers were sent to slaughter. Sorghum ergot, even at low concentrations (1.1 mg alkaloids/kg feed) is severely detrimental to the performance of steers in the feedlot.

Impact of tillage and residues from rotation crops on the nematode community in soil and surface mulch during the following sugarcane crop.

The impact of three cropping histories (sugarcane, maize and soybean) and two tillage practices (conventional tillage and direct drill) on plant-parasitic and free-living nematodes in the following sugarcane crop was examined in a field trial at Bundaberg. Soybean reduced populations of lesion nematode (Pratylenchus zeae) and root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne javanica) in comparison to previous crops of sugarcane or maize but increased populations of spiral nematode (Helicotylenchus dihystera) and maintained populations of dagger nematode (Xiphinema elongatum). However the effect of soybean on P zeae and M. javanica was no longer apparent 15 weeks after planting sugarcane, while later in the season, populations of these nematodes following soybean were as high as or higher than maize or sugarcane. Populations of P zeae were initially reduced by cultivation but due to strong resurgence tended to be higher in conventionally tilled than direct drill plots at the end of the plant crop. Even greater tillage effects were observed with M. javanica and X. elongatum, as nematode populations were significantly higher in conventionally tilled than direct drill plots late in the season. Populations of free-living nematodes in the upper 10 cm of soil were initially highest following soybean, but after 15, 35 and 59 weeks were lower than after sugarcane and contained fewer omnivorous and predatory nematodes. Conventional tillage increased populations of free-living nematodes in soil in comparison to direct drill and was also detrimental to omnivorous and predatory nematodes. These results suggest that crop rotation and tillage not only affect plant-parasitic nematodes directly, but also have indirect effects by impacting on natural enemies that regulate nematode populations. More than 2 million nematodes/m(2) were often present in crop residues on the surface of direct drill plots. Bacterial-feeding nematodes were predominant in residues early in the decomposition process but fungal-feeding nematodes predominated after 15 weeks. This indicates that fungi become an increasingly important component of the detritus food web as decomposition proceeds, and that that the rate of nutrient cycling decreases with time. Correlations between total numbers of free-living nematodes and mineral N concentrations in crop residues and surface soil suggested that the free-living nematode community may provide an indication of the rate of mineralisation of N from organic matter.

Quantifying differences between treated and untreated coir substrate

The aim of this project was to quantify differences between treated and untreated coir (coconut industrial residues) products and to identify differences in growth, yield and quality of cut flowers grown in different coir products. This has been brought about largely by the concern that some coir products, washed in low quality (saline) water may have detrimental effects on plant productivity and quality. There is concern in the flower production industry and among media suppliers, that lower quality products are favoured due to price alone, which as this project shows is a false economy. Specifically the project examined: • Differences in physical and chemical properties of treated and untreated coir along with another commonly used growing media in the flower industy; • Potential improvements in yield and quality of Gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii); • Potential differences in vase life of Gerbera as a result of the different growing media; and • Cost-benefit implications of treated (more expensive) coir substrate products versus untreated (less expensive) coir including any subsequent differences in yield and quality. By first examining the physical and some chemical properties of different coir substrates and other industry standard media, the researchers have been able to validate the concerns raised about the potential quality issues in coir based growing media. There was a great deal of variation in both the electrical conductivity and sodium contents. Physical properties were also variable as expected since manufacturers are able to target the specific physical preferences of plants through manipulation of the particle size distribution. A field trial was conducted under protected cropping practices in which three growing media were compared in terms of total productivity and also flower quality parameters such as stem length, flower diameter and vase life. The trial was a completely randomised design with the three growing media comprising treated coir discs, untreated coir discs and a pine bark coir mix. Four cultivars of Gerbera were assessed: Balance®; Carambole®; Dune® and Picobello®, all new products from Florist de Kwakel B.V., Denmark. Initial expansion from tissue culture was conducted at the Highsun Express Facility, Ormiston, Queensland. The trial included 12 replications of each cultivar in each media (a total of 144 plants) to ensure all data collected, and the derived conclusions were statistically rigorous. The coir supplied with no pre-treatment or buffering produced significantly less flowers than those grown in a pine bark coir mix or the pre-treated coir. Interestingly, the pine bark coir mix produced a greater number of flowers. However, the flowers produced in the pine bark coir mix were generally a shorter length stem. Productivity data, combined with flower quality data and component costs were all analysed through a cost/benefit economic model which showed that the greater revenue from better stem length outweighed the stem numbers, giving a cost benefit ratio of 2.58 for treated coir, 2.49 for untreated coir and 2.52 for pine bark coir mix. While this does not seem a large difference, when considering the number of plants a producer maintains can be upwards of 50,000 the difference in revenue would be, at a minimum $60,000 in this example. In conclusion, this project has found that there are significant effects on plant health, growth, yield and quality between those grown in treated and untreated coir. The outcome being growers can confidently invest in more expensive treated products with the assurance that benefits will outweigh initial cost. It is false economy to favour untreated coir products based on price alone. Producers should ensure they fully understand the production processes when purchasing growing media. Rather than targeting lower priced materials, it is recommended that quality be the highest priority in making this management decision. In making recommendations for future research and development it was important to consider conclusions from other researchers as well as those of the current project. It has been suggested that the media has greater longevity, which although not captured in this study could also lead to further cost efficiencies. Assessment of the products over a longer time period, and using a wider range of plant species are the major recommendations for further research to ensure greater understanding as to the importance in choosing the right growing media to meet specific needs.

Estimating and influencing the duration of weed eradication programmes

1. Weed eradication efforts often must be sustained for long periods owing to the existence of persistent seed banks, among other factors. Decision makers need to consider both the amount of investment required and the period over which investment must be maintained when determining whether to commit to (or continue) an eradication programme. However, a basis for estimating eradication programme duration based on simple data has been lacking. Here, we present a stochastic dynamic model that can provide such estimates. 2. The model is based upon the rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring state (i.e. no plants detected for at least 12 months), rates of reversion of infestations from monitoring to the active state and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. Isoquants that illustrate the combinations of progression and reversion parameters corresponding to eradication within different time frames are generated. 3. The model is applied to ongoing eradication programmes targeting branched broomrape Orobanche ramosa and chromolaena Chromolaena odorata. The minimum periods in which eradication could potentially be achieved were 22 and 23 years, respectively. On the basis of programme performance until 2008, however, eradication is predicted to take considerably longer for both species (on average, 62 and 248 years, respectively). Performance of the branched broomrape programme could be best improved through reducing rates of reversion to the active state; for chromolaena, boosting rates of progression to the monitoring state is more important. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our model for estimating weed eradication programme duration, which captures critical transitions between a limited number of states, is readily applicable to any weed.Aparticular strength of the method lies in its minimal data requirements. These comprise estimates of maximum seed persistence and infested area, plus consistent annual records of the detection (or otherwise) of the weed in each infestation. This work provides a framework for identifying where improvements in management are needed and a basis for testing the effectiveness of alternative tactics. If adopted, our approach should help improve decision making with regard to eradication as a management strategy.