Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

Analysis and Modelling of the Effects of Water Stress on Maize Growth and Yield in Dryland Conditions.

It is essential to provide experimental evidence and reliable predictions of the effects of water stress on crop production in the drier, less predictable environments. A field experiment undertaken in southeast Queensland, Australia with three water regimes (fully irrigated, rainfed and irrigated until late canopy expansion followed by rainfed) was used to compare effects of water stress on crop production in two maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars (Pioneer 34N43 and Pioneer 31H50). Water stress affected growth and yield more in Pioneer 34N43 than in Pioneer 31H50. A crop model APSIM-Maize, after having been calibrated for the two cultivars, was used to simulate maize growth and development under water stress. The predictions on leaf area index (LAI) dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield under rain fed and irrigated followed by rain fed treatments was reasonable, indicating that stress indices used by APSIM-Maize produced appropriate adjustments to crop growth and development in response to water stress. This study shows that Pioneer 31H50 is less sensitive to water stress and thus a preferred cultivar in dryland conditions, and that it is feasible to provide sound predictions and risk assessment for crop production in drier, more variable conditions using the APSIM-Maize model.

Modelling the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern Australia.

The nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency (yield per unit nitrogen uptake) and water use efficiency (yield per unit evapotranspiration) is widespread and results from well established, multiple effects of nitrogen availability on the water, carbon and nitrogen economy of crops. Here we used a crop model (APSIM) to simulate the yield, evapotranspiration, soil evaporation and nitrogen uptake of wheat, and analysed yield responses to water, nitrogen and climate using a framework analogous to the rate-duration model of determinate growth. The relationship between modelled grain yield (Y) and evapotranspiration (ET) was fitted to a linear-plateau function to derive three parameters: maximum yield (Ymax), the ET break-point when yield reaches its maximum (ET#), and the rate of yield response in the linear phase ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET). Against this framework, we tested the hypothesis that nitrogen deficit reduces maximum yield by reducing both the rate ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET) and the range of yield response to evapotranspiration, i.e. ET# - Es, where Es is modelled median soil evaporation. Modelled data reproduced the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency in a transect from Horsham (36°S) to Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Increasing nitrogen supply from 50 to 250 kg N ha-1 reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 29 to 12 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 15 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Emerald. The same increment in nitrogen supply reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 30 to 25 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 25 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Horsham. Maximum yield ranged from 0.9 to 6.4 t ha-1. Consistent with our working hypothesis, reductions in maximum yield with nitrogen deficit were associated with both reduction in the rate of yield response to ET and compression of the range of yield response to ET. Against the notion of managing crops to maximise water use efficiency in low rainfall environments, we emphasise the trade-off between water use efficiency and nitrogen utilisation efficiency, particularly under conditions of high nitrogen-to-grain price ratio. The rate-range framework to characterise the relationship between yield and evapotranspiration is useful to capture this trade-off as the parameters were responsive to both nitrogen supply and climatic factors.

Germination, emergence, and persistence of Sonchus oleraceus, a major crop weed in subtropical Australia.

Sonchus oleraceus (common sowthistle) is a dominant weed and has increased in prevalence in conservation cropping systems of the subtropical grain region of Australia. Four experiments were undertaken to define the environmental factors that favor its germination, emergence, and seed persistence. Seeds were germinated at constant temperatures between 5 and 35C and water potentials between 0 and -1.4 MPa. The maximum germination rate of 86-100% occurred at 0 and -0.2 MPa, irrespective of the temperature when exposed to light (12 h photoperiod light/dark), but the germination rate was reduced by 72% without light. At water potentials of -0.6 to -0.8 MPa, the germination rate was reduced substantially by higher temperatures; no seed germinated at a water potential >-1.0 MPa. Emergence and seed persistence were measured over 30 months following seed burial at 0 (surface), 1, 2, 5, and 10 cm depths in large pots that were buried in a south-eastern Queensland field. Seedlings emerged readily from the surface and 1 cm depth, with no emergence from below the 2 cm depth. The seedlings emerged during any season following rain but, predominantly, within 6 months of planting. Seed persistence was short-term on the soil surface, with 2% of seeds remaining after 6 months, but it increased with the burial depth, with 12% remaining after 30 months at 10 cm. Thus, a minimal seed burial depth with reduced tillage and increased surface soil water with stubble retention has favored the proliferation of this weed in any season in a subtropical environment. However, diligent management without seed replenishment will greatly reduce this weed problem within a short period.

Environment characterization as an aid to wheat improvement: interpreting genotype-environment interactions by modelling water-deficit patterns in North-Eastern Australia.

Genotype-environment interactions (GEI) limit genetic gain for complex traits such as tolerance to drought. Characterization of the crop environment is an important step in understanding GEI. A modelling approach is proposed here to characterize broadly (large geographic area, long-term period) and locally (field experiment) drought-related environmental stresses, which enables breeders to analyse their experimental trials with regard to the broad population of environments that they target. Water-deficit patterns experienced by wheat crops were determined for drought-prone north-eastern Australia, using the APSIM crop model to account for the interactions of crops with their environment (e.g. feedback of plant growth on water depletion). Simulations based on more than 100 years of historical climate data were conducted for representative locations, soils, and management systems, for a check cultivar, Hartog. The three main environment types identified differed in their patterns of simulated water stress around flowering and during grain-filling. Over the entire region, the terminal drought-stress pattern was most common (50% of production environments) followed by a flowering stress (24%), although the frequencies of occurrence of the three types varied greatly across regions, years, and management. This environment classification was applied to 16 trials relevant to late stages testing of a breeding programme. The incorporation of the independently-determined environment types in a statistical analysis assisted interpretation of the GEI for yield among the 18 representative genotypes by reducing the relative effect of GEI compared with genotypic variance, and helped to identify opportunities to improve breeding and germplasm-testing strategies for this region.

Relocation of intensive crop production systems to northern Australia

To adapt to climate variability and a lack of irrigation water, businesses and growers in southern Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland are, or are considering, migrating their businesses to northern Australia.

Optimising crop and economic performance of precision overhead irrigation

This project aims to develop integrated irrigation and nutrition management strategies under limited water for irrigators currently investing in overhead irrigation systems (CPLM) to minimize the learning lag in their use and optimize crop and economic performance.

Isohydric and anisohydric characterisation of vegetable crops. The classification of vegetables by their physiological responses to water stress

Research on the physiological response of crop plants to drying soils and subsequent water stress has grouped plant behaviours as isohydric and anisohydric. Drying soil conditions, and hence declining soil and root water potentials, cause chemical signals—the most studied being abscisic acid (ABA)—and hydraulic signals to be transmitted to the leaf via xylem pathways. Researchers have attempted to allocate crops as isohydric or anisohydric. However, different cultivars within crops, and even the same cultivars grown in different environments/climates, can exhibit both response types. Nevertheless, understanding which behaviours predominate in which crops and circumstances may be beneficial. This paper describes different physiological water stress responses, attempts to classify vegetable crops according to reported water stress responses, and also discusses implications for irrigation decision-making.

The role of tillage, fertiliser and forage species in sustaining dairying based on crops in southern Queensland 2. Double-crop and summer sole-crop systems.

Dairy farms located in the subtropical cereal belt of Australia rely on winter and summer cereal crops, rather than pastures, for their forage base. Crops are mostly established in tilled seedbeds and the system is vulnerable to fertility decline and water erosion, particularly over summer fallows. Field studies were conducted over 5 years on contrasting soil types, a Vertosol and Sodosol, in the 650-mm annual-rainfall zone to evaluate the benefits of a modified cropping program on forage productivity and the soil-resource base. Growing forage sorghum as a double-crop with oats increased total mean annual production over that of winter sole-crop systems by 40% and 100% on the Vertosol and Sodosol sites respectively. However, mean annual winter crop yield was halved and overall forage quality was lower. Ninety per cent of the variation in winter crop yield was attributable to fallow and in-crop rainfall. Replacing forage sorghum with the annual legume lablab reduced fertiliser nitrogen (N) requirements and increased forage N concentration, but reduced overall annual yield. Compared with sole-cropped oats, double-cropping reduced the risk of erosion by extending the duration of soil water deficits and increasing the time ground was under plant cover. When grown as a sole-crop, well fertilised forage sorghum achieved a mean annual cumulative yield of 9.64 and 6.05 t DM/ha on the Vertosol and Sodosol, respectively, being about twice that of sole-cropped oats. Forage sorghum established using zero-tillage practices and fertilised at 175 kg N/ha. crop achieved a significantly higher yield and forage N concentration than did the industry-standard forage sorghum (conventional tillage and 55 kg N/ha. crop) on the Vertosol but not on the Sodosol. On the Vertosol, mean annual yield increased from 5.65 to 9.64 t DM/ha (33 kg DM/kg N fertiliser applied above the base rate); the difference in the response between the two sites was attributed to soil type and fertiliser history. Changing both tillage practices and N-fertiliser rate had no affect on fallow water-storage efficiency but did improve fallow ground cover. When forage sorghum, grown as a sole crop, was replaced with lablab in 3 of the 5 years, overall forage N concentration increased significantly, and on the Vertosol, yield and soil nitrate-N reserves also increased significantly relative to industry-standard sorghum. All forage systems maintained or increased the concentration of soil nitrate-N (0-1.2-m soil layer) over the course of the study. Relative to sole-crop oats, alternative forage systems were generally beneficial to the concentration of surface-soil (0-0.1 m) organic carbon and systems that included sorghum showed most promise for increasing soil organic carbon concentration. We conclude that an emphasis on double-or summer sole-cropping rather than winter sole-cropping will advantage both farm productivity and the soil-resource base.

Water and thermal regimes for field pea in Australia and their implications for breeding.

There is a large gap between the refined approaches to characterise genotypes and the common use of location and season as a coarse surrogate for environmental characterisation of breeding trials. As a framework for breeding, the aim of this paper is quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and water stress for field pea in Australia. We compiled a dataset for yield of the cv. Kaspa measured in 185 environments, and investigated the associations between yield and seasonal patterns of actual temperature and modelled water stress. Correlations between yield and temperature indicated two distinct stages. In the first stage, during crop establishment and canopy expansion before flowering, yield was positively associated with minimum temperature. Mean minimum temperature below similar to 7 degrees C suggests that crops were under suboptimal temperature for both canopy expansion and radiation-use efficiency during a significant part of this early growth period. In the second stage, during critical reproductive phases, grain yield was negatively associated with maximum temperature over 25 degrees C. Correlations between yield and modelled water supply/demand ratio showed a consistent pattern with three phases: no correlation at early stages of the growth cycle, a progressive increase in the association that peaked as the crop approached the flowering window, and a progressive decline at later reproductive stages. Using long-term weather records (1957-2010) and modelled water stress for 104 locations, we identified three major patterns of water deficit nation wide. Environment type 1 (ET1) represents the most favourable condition, with no stress during most of the pre-flowering phase and gradual development of mild stress after flowering. Type 2 is characterised by increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and 200 degree-days after flowering and rainfall that relieves stress late in the season. Type 3 represents the more stressful condition with increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and maturity. Across Australia, the frequency of occurrence was 24% for ET1, 32% for ET2 and 43% for ET3, highlighting the dominance of the most stressful condition. Actual yield averaged 2.2 t/ha for ET1, 1.9 t/ha for ET2 and 1.4 t/ha for ET3, and the frequency of each pattern varied substantially among locations. Shifting from a nominal (i.e. location and season) to a quantitative (i.e. stress type) characterisation of environments could help improving breeding efficiency of field pea in Australia.

AQUAMAN: a web-based decision support system for irrigation scheduling in peanuts

Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is an economically important legume crop in irrigated production areas of northern Australia. Although the potential pod yield of the crop in these areas is about 8 t ha(-1), most growers generally obtain around 5 t ha(-1), partly due to poor irrigation management. Better information and tools that are easy to use, accurate, and cost-effective are therefore needed to help local peanut growers improve irrigation management. This paper introduces a new web-based decision support system called AQUAMAN that was developed to assist Australian peanut growers schedule irrigations. It simulates the timing and depth of future irrigations by combining procedures from the food and agriculture organization (FAO) guidelines for irrigation scheduling (FAO-56) with those of the agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM) modeling framework. Here, we present a description of AQUAMAN and results of a series of activities (i.e., extension activities, case studies, and a survey) that were conducted to assess its level of acceptance among Australian peanut growers, obtain feedback for future improvements, and evaluate its performance. Application of the tool for scheduling irrigations of commercial peanut farms since its release in 2004-2005 has shown good acceptance by local peanuts growers and potential for significantly improving yield. Limited comparison with the farmer practice of matching the pan evaporation demand during rain-free periods in 2006-2007 and 2008-2009 suggested that AQUAMAN enabled irrigation water savings of up to 50% and the realization of enhanced water and irrigation use efficiencies.

Developmental and growth controls of tillering and water-soluble carbohydrate accumulation in contrasting wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes: can we dissect them?

In wheat, tillering and water-soluble carbohydrates (WSCs) in the stem are potential traits for adaptation to different environments and are of interest as targets for selective breeding. This study investigated the observation that a high stem WSC concentration (WSCc) is often related to low tillering. The proposition tested was that stem WSC accumulation is plant density dependent and could be an emergent property of tillering, whether driven by genotype or by environment. A small subset of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) contrasting for tillering was grown at different plant densities or on different sowing dates in multiple field experiments. Both tillering and WSCc were highly influenced by the environment, with a smaller, distinct genotypic component; the genotypeenvironment range covered 350750 stems m(2) and 25210mg g(1) WSCc. Stem WSCc was inversely related to stem number m(2), but genotypic rankings for stem WSCc persisted when RILs were compared at similar stem density. Low tilleringhigh WSCc RILs had similar leaf area index, larger individual leaves, and stems with larger internode cross-section and wall area when compared with high tilleringlow WSCc RILs. The maximum number of stems per plant was positively associated with growth and relative growth rate per plant, tillering rate and duration, and also, in some treatments, with leaf appearance rate and final leaf number. A common threshold of the red:far red ratio (0.390.44; standard error of the difference0.055) coincided with the maximum stem number per plant across genotypes and plant densities, and could be effectively used in crop simulation modelling as a ocut-off' rule for tillering. The relationship between tillering, WSCc, and their component traits, as well as the possible implications for crop simulation and breeding, is discussed.

Benefits of oxygation of subsurface drip-irrigation water for cotton in a Vertosol

Australian cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is predominantly grown on heavy clay soils (Vertosols). Cotton grown on Vertosols often experiences episodes of low oxygen concentration in the root-zone, particularly after irrigation events. In subsurface drip-irrigation (SDI), cotton receives frequent irrigation and sustained wetting fronts are developed in the rhizosphere. This can lead to poor soil diffusion of oxygen, causing temporal and spatial hypoxia. As cotton is sensitive to waterlogging, exposure to this condition can result in a significant yield penalty. Use of aerated water for drip irrigation (‘oxygation’) can ameliorate hypoxia in the wetting front and, therefore, overcome the negative effects of poor soil aeration. The efficacy of oxygation, delivered via SDI to broadacre cotton, was evaluated over seven seasons (2005–06 to 2012–13). Oxygation of irrigation water by Mazzei air-injector produced significantly (P < 0.001) higher yields (200.3 v. 182.7 g m–2) and water-use efficiencies. Averaged over seven years, the yield and gross production water-use index of oxygated cotton exceeded that of the control by 10% and 7%, respectively. The improvements in yields and water-use efficiency in response to oxygation could be ascribed to greater root development and increased light interception by the crop canopies, contributing to enhanced crop physiological performance by ameliorating exposure to hypoxia. Oxygation of SDI contributed to improvements in both yields and water-use efficiency, which may contribute to greater economic feasibility of SDI for broadacre cotton production in Vertosols.