The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

Does Fumigation of Durum Wheat and Semolina with Sulfuryl Fluoride affect Quality of the Grain, Semolina and derived Spaghetti and Bread?

There is no information on the effect of sulfuryl fluoride (SF) on durum wheat technological properties and products made from fumigated durum wheat. Durum wheat and semolina were exposed to a range of SF applications under conditions that might be typically encountered in bulk storage facilities used in many countries. SF greatly reduced the germination percentage of fumigated durum wheat with increasing impact under higher SF concentration, grain moisture content, and fumigation temperature. SF greatly reduced seed germination percentage impacting more the higher the SF concentration. SF had little to no effects on grain test weight, 1000 grain weight, hardness, protein content, semolina ash content and mixograph properties. At the highest SF concentration (31.25 mg/L for 48 h) there was a tendency for pasta cooking loss to be increased but still acceptable while other pasta properties were largely unaffected. Fumigation with SF did not have any impact on the baking properties of a wholemeal durum flour-commercial flour mix. Therefore, SF is not recommended if the grains are to be used as seeds for agricultural production but for the production of semolina, pasta and bread, SF used under typical fumigation conditions has little to no impact on technological properties of durum wheat.

Does Fumigation of Durum Wheat and Semolina with Sulfuryl Fluoride affect Quality of the Grain, Semolina and derived Spaghetti and Bread?

There is no information on the effect of sulfuryl fluoride (SF) on durum wheat technological properties and products made from fumigated durum wheat. Durum wheat and semolina were exposed to a range of SF applications under conditions that might be typically encountered in bulk storage facilities used in many countries. SF greatly reduced the germination percentage of fumigated durum wheat with increasing impact under higher SF concentration, grain moisture content, and fumigation temperature. SF greatly reduced seed germination percentage impacting more the higher the SF concentration. SF had little to no effects on grain test weight, 1000 grain weight, hardness, protein content, semolina ash content and mixograph properties. At the highest SF concentration (31.25 mg/L for 48 h) there was a tendency for pasta cooking loss to be increased but still acceptable while other pasta properties were largely unaffected. Fumigation with SF did not have any impact on the baking properties of a wholemeal durum flour-commercial flour mix. Therefore, SF is not recommended if the grains are to be used as seeds for agricultural production but for the production of semolina, pasta and bread, SF used under typical fumigation conditions has little to no impact on technological properties of durum wheat.

Sorghum Crop Modeling and Its Utility in Agronomy and Breeding

Crop models are simplified mathematical representations of the interacting biological and environmental components of the dynamic soil–plant–environment system. Sorghum crop modeling has evolved in parallel with crop modeling capability in general, since its origins in the 1960s and 1970s. Here we briefly review the trajectory in sorghum crop modeling leading to the development of advanced models. We then (i) overview the structure and function of the sorghum model in the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) to exemplify advanced modeling concepts that suit both agronomic and breeding applications, (ii) review an example of use of sorghum modeling in supporting agronomic management decisions, (iii) review an example of the use of sorghum modeling in plant breeding, and (iv) consider implications for future roles of sorghum crop modeling. Modeling and simulation provide an avenue to explore consequences of crop management decision options in situations confronted with risks associated with seasonal climate uncertainties. Here we consider the possibility of manipulating planting configuration and density in sorghum as a means to manipulate the productivity–risk trade-off. A simulation analysis of decision options is presented and avenues for its use with decision-makers discussed. Modeling and simulation also provide opportunities to improve breeding efficiency by either dissecting complex traits to more amenable targets for genetics and breeding, or by trait evaluation via phenotypic prediction in target production regions to help prioritize effort and assess breeding strategies. Here we consider studies on the stay-green trait in sorghum, which confers yield advantage in water-limited situations, to exemplify both aspects. The possible future roles of sorghum modeling in agronomy and breeding are discussed as are opportunities related to their synergistic interaction. The potential to add significant value to the revolution in plant breeding associated with genomic technologies is identified as the new modeling frontier.

Does fumigation of durum wheat and semolina with sulfuryl fluoride affect quality of the grain, semolina, and derived spaghetti and bread?

There is no information on the effect of sulfuryl fluoride (SF) on durum wheat technological properties and products made from fumigated durum wheat. Durum wheat and semolina were exposed to a range of SF applications under conditions that might be typically encountered in bulk storage facilities used in many countries. SF greatly reduced the germination percentage of fumigated durum wheat, with increasing impact under higher SF concentration, grain moisture content, and fumigation temperature. SF greatly reduced seed germination percentage, impacting more the higher the SF concentration. SF had little to no effect on grain test weight, 1,000-grain weight, hardness, protein content, semolina ash content, and mixograph properties. At the highest SF concentration (31.25 mg/L for 48 h) there was a tendency for pasta cooking loss to be increased but still acceptable, and other pasta properties were largely unaffected. Fumigation with SF did not have any impact on the baking properties of a wholemeal durum flour-commercial flour mix. Therefore, SF is not recommended if the grains are to be used as seeds for agricultural production, but for the production of semolina, pasta, and bread, SF used under typical fumigation conditions has little to no impact on technological properties of durum wheat. © 2016 AACC International, Inc.

Effect of irrigation amounts applied with subsurface drip irrigation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency, and dry matter production in a semiarid climate

Quantifying the local crop response to irrigation is important for establishing adequate irrigation management strategies. This study evaluated the effect of irrigation applied with subsurface drip irrigation on field corn (Zea mays L.) evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiencies (WUE = yield/ETc, and IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry matter production in the semiarid climate of west central Nebraska. Eight treatments were imposed with irrigation amounts ranging from 53 to 356 mm in 2005 and from 22 to 226 mm in 2006. A soil water balance approach (based on FAO-56) was used to estimate daily soil water and ETc. Treatments resulted in seasonal ETc of 580-663 mm and 466-656 mm in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yields among treatments differed by as much as 22% in 2005 and 52% in 2006. In both seasons, irrigation significantly affected yields, which increased with irrigation up to a point where irrigation became excessive. Distinct relationships were obtained each season. Yields increased linearly with seasonal ETc (R 2 = 0.89) and ETc/ETp (R 2 = 0.87) (ETp = ETc with no water stress). The yield response factor (ky), which indicates the relative reduction in yield to relative reduction in ETc, averaged 1.58 over the two seasons. WUE increased non-linearly with seasonal ETc and with yield. WUE was more sensitive to irrigation during the drier 2006 season, compared with 2005. Both seasons, IWUE decreased sharply with irrigation. Irrigation significantly affected dry matter production and partitioning into the different plant components (grain, cob, and stover). On average, the grain accounted for the majority of the above-ground plant dry mass (≈59%), followed by the stover (≈33%) and the cob (≈8%). The dry mass of the plant and that of each plant component tended to increase with seasonal ETc. The good relationships obtained in the study between crop performance indicators and seasonal ETc demonstrate that accurate estimates of ETc on a daily and seasonal basis can be valuable for making tactical in-season irrigation management decisions and for strategic irrigation planning and management.

Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Subsoil constraints to grain production in the cropping soils of the north-eastern region of Australia: an overview

In dryland agricultural systems of the subtropical, semi-arid region of north-eastern Australia, water is the most limiting resource. Crop productivity depends on the efficient use of rainfall and available water stored in the soil during fallow. Agronomic management practices including a period of fallow, stubble retention, and reduced tillage enhance reserves of soil water. However, access to stored water in these soils may be restricted by the presence of growth-limiting conditions in the rooting zone of the crop. These have been termed as subsoil constraints. Subsoil constraints may include compacted or gravel layers (physical), sodicity, salinity, acidity, nutrient deficiencies, presence of toxic elements (chemical) and low microbial activity (biological). Several of these constraints may occur together in some soils. Farmers have often not been able to obtain the potential yield determined by their prevailing climatic conditions in the marginal rainfall areas of the northern grains region. In the past, the adoption of soil management practices had been largely restricted to the top 100 mm soil layer. Exploitation of the subsoil as a source of water and nutrients has largely been overlooked. The key towards realising potential yields would be to gain better understanding of subsoils and their limitations, then develop options to manage them practically and economically. Due to the complex nature of the causal factors of these constraints, efforts are required for a combination of management approaches rather than individual options, with the aim to combat these constraints for sustainable crop production, managing natural resources and avoiding environmental damage.

Development of key soil health indicators for the Australian banana industry

To improve the sustainability and environmental accountability of the banana industry there is a need to develop a set of soil health indicators that integrate physical, chemical and biological soil properties. These indicators would allow banana growers, extension and research workers to improve soil health management practices. To determine changes in soil properties due to the cultivation of bananas, a paired site survey was conducted comparing soil properties under conventional banana systems to less intensively managed vegetation systems, such as pastures and forest. Measurements were made on physical, chemical and biological soil properties at seven locations in tropical and sub-tropical banana producing areas. Soil nematode community composition was used as a bioindicator of the biological properties of the soil. Soils under conventional banana production tended to have a greater soil bulk density, with less soil organic carbon (C) (both total C and labile C), greater exchangeable cations, higher extractable P, greater numbers of plant-parasitic nematodes and less nematode diversity, relative to less intensively managed plant systems. The organic banana production systems at two locations had greater labile C, relative to conventional banana systems, but there was no significant change in nematode community composition. There were significant interactions between physical, chemical and nematode community measurements in the soil, particularly with soil C measurements, confirming the need for a holistic set of indicators to aid soil management. There was no single indicator of soil health for the Australian banana industry, but a set of soil health indicators, which would allow the measurement of soil improvements should include: bulk density, soil C, pH, EC, total N, extractable P, ECEC and soil nematode community structure.

Alkaloid production by isolates of the sorghum ergot pathogen (Claviceps africana) from Australia and other countries

Isolates of Claviceps africana from Australia, Africa, Asia, and America were tested for the production of dihydroergosine (DHES), and its biogenic precursors dihydroelymoclavine (DHEL) and festuclavine (FEST), in culture. Several growth media were evaluated to optimise alkaloid production with little success. The best of these involved 2-stage culturing on high-sucrose substrate. Australian C. africana isolates varied widely and inconsistently in alkaloid production, with DHES concentrations in mycelium ranging from: <0.1 to 9 mg DHES/kg; <0.1 to 1.6 mg DHEL/kg; and <0.1 to 0.4 mg FEST/kg. In a separate experiment using similar culturing techniques, DHES was produced by 2 of 3 Australian isolates, 1 of 3 USA isolates, 1 of 4 Indian isolates, the sole Puerto Rican isolate, the sole Japanese isolate, but not the sole South African isolate. In this experiment, DHES concentrations detected in mycelium of Australian isolates (0.1-1.0 mg DHES/kg) were of similar magnitude to isolates from other countries (0.2-1.8 mg DHES/kg). Three C. africana isolates, including one that produced only traces of alkaloid in culture after 8 weeks, were inoculated onto panicles of sterile male sorghum plants. After 8 weeks, all 3 isolates produced 10-19 mg DHES/kg in the panicles, demonstrating that the growing plant favoured more consistent alkaloid production than culture medium.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

Developing sustainable banana production systems: a case study from tropical Australia

The north Queensland banana industry is under pressure from government and community expectations to exhibit good environmental stewardship. The industry is situated on the high-rainfall north Queensland coast adjacent to 2 natural icons, the Great Barrier Reef to the east and World Heritage-listed rain forest areas to the west. The main environmental concern is agricultural industry pollutants harming the Great Barrier Reef. In addition to environmental issues the banana industry also suffers financial pressure from declining margins and production loss from tropical cyclones. As part of a broader government strategy to reduce land-based pollutants affecting the Great Barrier Reef, the formation of a pilot banana producers group to address these environmental and economic pressures was facilitated. Using an integrated farming systems approach, we worked collaboratively with these producers to conduct an environmental risk assessment of their businesses and then to develop best management practices (BMP) to address environmental concerns. We also sought input from technical experts to provide increased rigour for the environmental risk assessment and BMP development. The producers' commercial experience ensured new ideas for improved sustainable practices were constantly assessed through their profit-driven 'filter' thus ensuring economic sustainability was also considered. Relying heavily on the producers' knowledge and experience meant the agreed sustainable practices were practical, relevant and financially feasible for the average-sized banana business in the region. Expert input and review also ensured that practices were technically sound. The pilot group producers then implemented and adapted selected key practices on their farms. High priority practices addressed by the producers group included optimizing nitrogen fertilizer management to reduce runoff water nitrification, developing practical ground cover management to reduce soil erosion and improving integrated pest management systems to reduce pesticide use. To facilitate wider banana industry understanding and adoption of the BMP's developed by the pilot group, we conducted field days at the farms of the pilot group members. Information generated by the pilot group has had wider application to Australian horticulture and the process has been subsequently used with the north Queensland sugar industry. Our experiences have shown that integrated farming systems methodologies are useful in addressing complex issues like environmental and economic sustainability. We have also found that individual horticulture businesses need on-going technical support for change to more sustainable practices. One-off interventions have little impact, as farm improvement is usually an on-going incremental process. A key lesson from this project has been the need to develop practical, farm scale economic tools to clarify and demonstrate the financial impact of alternative management practices. Demonstrating continued profitability is critical to encourage widespread industry adoption of environmentally sustainable practices

Potential economic benefit of intensification of beef production in Australian rangelands: an operational case study perspective.

In Australia, the development of rangelands has led to steady gains in pastoral productivity through more intensive and widespread land use (Stokes et al., 2006). Opportunities to benefit from intensification exist on large properties with relatively poor water and fencing infrastructure development, resulting in uneven utilisation of available forage (Ash et al.,2006). The objective of this study is to value expected economic gains from carrying out property improvements on a beef property located in Northern Australia.