A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

Integrating pest population models with biophysical crop models to better represent the farming system

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Integrating Rapid Phenotyping and Speed Breeding to Improve Stay-Green and Root Adaptation of Wheat in Changing, Water-Limited, Australian Environments

Temperatures have increased and in-crop rainfall decreased over recent decades in many parts of the Australian wheat cropping region. With these trends set to continue or intensify, improving crop adaptation in the face of climate change is particularly urgent in this, already drought-prone, cropping region. Importantly, improved performance under water-limitation must be achieved while retaining yield potential during more favourable seasons. A multi-trait-based approach to improve wheat yield and yield stability in the face of water-limitation and heat has been instigated in northern Australia using novel phenotyping techniques and a nested association mapping (NAM) approach. An innovative laboratory technique allows rapid root trait screening of hundreds of lines. Using soil grown seedlings, the method offers significant advantages over many other lab-based techniques. Another recently developed method allows novel stay-green traits to be quantified objectively for hundreds of genotypes in standard field trial plots. Field trials in multiple locations and seasons allow evaluation of targeted trait values and identification of superior germplasm. Traits, including yield and yield components are measured for hundreds of NAM lines in rain fed environments under various levels of water-limitation. To rapidly generate lines of interest, the University of Queensland “speed breeding” method is being employed, allowing up to 7 plant generations per annum. A NAM population of over 1000 wheat recombinant inbred lines has been progressed to the F5 generation within 18 months. Genotyping the NAM lines with the genome-wide DArTseq molecular marker system provides up to 40,000 markers. They are now being used for association mapping to validate QTL previously identified in bi-parental populations and to identify novel QTL for stay-green and root traits. We believe that combining the latest techniques in physiology, phenotyping, genetics and breeding will increase genetic progress toward improved adaptation to water-limited environments.

Small-scale capture, transport and tank adaptation of live, medium-sized Scombrids using "Tuna Tubes"

The transport of live fish is a crucial step to establish fish culture in captivity, and is especially challenging for species that have not been commonly cultured before, therefore transport and handling methods need to be optimized and tailored. This study describes the use of tuna tubes for small-scale transport of medium-sized pelagic fish from the Scombridae family. Tuna tubes are an array of vertical tubes that hold the fish, while fresh seawater is pumped up the tubes and through the fish mouth and gills, providing oxygen and removing wastes. In this study, 19 fish were captured using rod and line and 42% of the captured fish were transported alive in the custom-designed tuna tubes to an on-shore holding tank: five mackerel tuna (Euthynnus affinis) and three leaping bonito (Cybiosarda elegans). Out of these, just three (15.8% of total fish) acclimatized to the tank's condition. Based on these results, we discuss an improved design of the tuna tubes that has the potential to increase survival rates and enable a simple and low cost method of transporting of live pelagic fish.