High subsoil chloride concentrations reduce soil water extraction and crop yield on Vertosols in north-eastern Australia

Salinity, sodicity, acidity, and phytotoxic levels of chloride (Cl) in subsoils are major constraints to crop production in many soils of north-eastern Australia because they reduce the ability of crop roots to extract water and nutrients from the soil. The complex interactions and correlations among soil properties result in multi-colinearity between soil properties and crop yield that makes it difficult to determine which constraint is the major limitation. We used ridge-regression analysis to overcome colinearity to evaluate the contribution of soil factors and water supply to the variation in the yields of 5 winter crops on soils with various levels and combinations of subsoil constraints in the region. Subsoil constraints measured were soil Cl, electrical conductivity of the saturation extract (ECse), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The ridge regression procedure selected several of the variables used in a descriptive model, which included in-crop rainfall, plant-available soil water at sowing in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and soil Cl in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and accounted for 77-85% of the variation in the grain yields of the 5 winter crops. Inclusion of ESP of the top soil (0.0-0.10 m soil layer) marginally increased the descriptive capability of the models for bread wheat, barley and durum wheat. Subsoil Cl concentration was found to be an effective substitute for subsoil water extraction. The estimates of the critical levels of subsoil Cl for a 10% reduction in the grain yield were 492 mg cl/kg for chickpea, 662 mg Cl/kg for durum wheat, 854 mg Cl/kg for bread wheat, 980 mg Cl/kg for canola, and 1012 mg Cl/kg for barley, thus suggesting that chickpea and durum wheat were more sensitive to subsoil Cl than bread wheat, barley, and canola.

Architectural modelling of maize under water stress

Two field experiments using maize (Pioneer 31H50) and three watering regimes [(i) irrigated for the whole crop cycle, until anthesis, (ii) not at all (experiment 1) and (iii) fully irrigated and rain grown for the whole crop cycle (experiment 2)] were conducted at Gatton, Australia, during the 2003-04 season. Data on crop ontogeny, leaf, sheath and internode lengths and leaf width, and senescence were collected at 1- to 3-day intervals. A glasshouse experiment during 2003 quantified the responses of leaf shape and leaf presentation to various levels of water stress. Data from experiment 1 were used to modify and parameterise an architectural model of maize (ADEL-Maize) to incorporate the impact of water stress on maize canopy characteristics. The modified model produced accurate fitted values for experiment 1 for final leaf area and plant height, but values during development for leaf area were lower than observed data. Crop duration was reasonably well fitted and differences between the fully irrigated and rain-grown crops were accurately predicted. Final representations of maize crop canopies were realistic. Possible explanations for low values of leaf area are provided. The model requires further development using data from the glasshouse study and before being validated using data from experiment 2 and other independent data. It will then be used to extend functionality in architectural models of maize. With further research and development, the model should be particularly useful in examining the response of maize production to water stress including improved prediction of total biomass and grain yield. This will facilitate improved simulation of plant growth and development processes allowing investigation of genotype by environment interactions under conditions of suboptimal water supply.

Subsoil constraints in Vertosols: Crop water use nutrient concentration, and grain yields of bread wheat, durum wheat, barley, chickpea and canola

Single or multiple factors implicated in subsoil constraints including salinity, sodicity, and phytotoxic concentrations of chloride (Cl) are present in many Vertosols including those occurring in Queensland, Australia. The variable distribution and the complex interactions that exist between these constraints limit the agronomic or management options available to manage the soil with these subsoil constraints. The identification of crops and cultivars adapted to these adverse subsoil conditions and/or able to exploit subsoil water may be an option to maintain productivity of these soils. We evaluated relative performance of 5 winter crop species, in terms of grain yields, nutrient concentration, and ability to extract soil water, grown on soils with various levels and combinations of subsoil constraints in 19 field experiments over 2 years. Subsoil constraints were measured by levels of soil Cl, electrical conductivity of the saturation extract (ECse), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). Increasing levels of subsoil constraints significantly decreased maximum depth of water extraction, grain yield, and plant-available water capacity for all the 5 crops and more so for chickpea and durum wheat than bread wheat, barley, or canola. Increasing soil Cl levels had a greater restricting effect on water availability than did ECse and ESP. We developed empirical relationships between soil Cl, ECse, and ESP and crop lower limit (CLL) for estimating subsoil water extraction by 5 winter crops. However, the presence of gypsum influenced the ability to predict CLL based on the levels of ECse. Stronger relationships between apparent unused plant-available water (CLL - LL15; LL15 is lower limit at -1.5 MPa) and soil Cl concentrations than ESP or ECse suggested that the presence of high Cl in these soils most likely inhibited the subsoil water extraction by the crops. This was supported by increased sodium (Na) and Cl concentration with a corresponding decrease in calcium (Ca) and potassium (K) in young mature leaf of bread wheat, durum wheat, and chickpea with increasing levels of subsoil constraints. Of the 2 ions, Na and Cl, the latter appears to be more damaging than the former, resulting in plant dieback and reduced grain yields.

The role of root architectural traits in adaptation of wheat to water-limited environments

Better understanding of root system structure and function is critical to crop improvement in water-limited environments. The aims of this study were to examine root system characteristics of two wheat genotypes contrasting in tolerance to water limitation and to assess the functional implications on adaptation to water-limited environments of any differences found. The drought tolerant barley variety, Mackay, was also included to allow inter-species comparison. Single plants were grown in large, soil-filled root-observation chambers. Root growth was monitored by digital imaging and water extraction was measured. Root architecture differed markedly among the genotypes. The drought-tolerant wheat (cv. SeriM82) had a compact root system, while roots of barley cv. Mackay occupied the largest soil volume. Relative to the standard wheat variety (Hartog), SeriM82 had a more uniform rooting pattern and greater root length at depth. Despite the more compact root architecture of SeriM82, total water extracted did not differ between wheat genotypes. To quantify the value of these adaptive traits, a simulation analysis was conducted with the cropping system model APSIM, for a wide range of environments in southern Queensland, Australia. The analysis indicated a mean relative yield benefit of 14.5% in water-deficit seasons. Each additional millimetre of water extracted during grain filling generated an extra 55 kg ha-1 of grain yield. The functional implications of root traits on temporal patterns and total amount of water capture, and their importance in crop adaptation to specific water-limited environments, are discussed.

Response of tropical turfgrasses to recycled water in southern Queensland

The effects of recycled water (effluent) on 8 tropical grasses growing in 100-L bags of sand were studied in Murrumba Downs, just north of Brisbane in southern Queensland (27.4°S, 153.1°E). The species used were: Axonopus compressus (broad-leaf carpetgrass), Cynodon dactylon (bermudagrass 'Winter Green') and C. dactylon x C. transvaalensis hybrid ('Tifgreen'), Digitaria didactyla (Queensland blue couch), Paspalum notatum (bahiagrass '38824'), Stenotaphrum secundatum (buffalograss 'Palmetto'), Eremochloa ophiuroides (centipedegrass 'Centec') and Zoysia japonica (zoysiagrass 'ZT-11'). From May 2002 to June 2003, control plots were irrigated with potable water and fertilised monthly. Plots irrigated with effluent received no fertiliser from May to August 2002 (deficient phase), complete fertilisers at control rates from September to December 2002 (recovery phase) and nitrogen (N) only at control rates from January to June 2003 (supplementary phase). In October 2002, the average shoot weight of plants from the effluent plots was 4% of that from potable plots, with centipedegrass less affected than the other species (relative growth of 20%). Shoot N concentrations declined by 40% in the effluent plots from May to August 2002 (1.8 ± 0.1%) along with phosphorus (P, 0.46 ± 0.02%), potassium (K, 1.6 ± 0.2%), sulfur (S, 0.28 ± 0.02%) and manganese (Mn, 19 ± 2 mg/kg) concentrations. Only the N and Mn concentrations were below the optimum for grasses. The grasses grew satisfactorily when irrigated with effluent if it was supplemented with N. Between January and June 2003 the average weight of shoots from the effluent plots was 116% of the weight of shoots from the control plots. Shoot nutrient concentrations were also similar in the 2 regimes at this time. The recycled water supplied 23% of the N required for maximum shoot growth, 80-100% of the P and K, and 500-880% of the S, calcium and magnesium. The use of recycled water represents savings in irrigation and fertiliser costs, and reductions in the discharge of N and P to local waterways. Effluent is currently about 50% of the cost of potable water with a saving of about AU$8000/ha.year for a typical sporting field.

The physiological and metabolic impacts on sheep and cattle of feed and water deprivation before and during transport

Sheep and cattle are frequently subjected to feed and water deprivation (FWD) for about 12 h before, and then during, transport to reduce digesta load in the gastrointestinal tract. This FWD is marked by weight loss as urine and faeces mainly in the first 24 h but continuing at a reduced rate subsequently. The weight of rumen contents falls although water loss is to some extent masked by saliva inflow. FWD is associated with some stress, particularly when transportation is added. This is indicated by increased levels of plasma cortisol that may be partly responsible for an observed increase in the output of water and N in urine and faeces. Loss of body water induces dehydration that may induce feelings of thirst by effects on the hypothalamus structures through the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. There are suggestions that elevated cortisol levels depress angiotensin activity and prevent sensations of thirst in dehydrated animals, but further research in this area is needed. Dehydration coupled with the discharge of Na in urine challenges the maintenance of homeostasis. In FWD, Na excretion in urine is reduced and, with the reduction in digesta load, Na is gradually returned from the digestive tract to the extracellular fluid space. Control of enteropathogenic bacteria by normal rumen microbes is weakened by FWD and resulting infections may threaten animal health and meat safety. Recovery time is required after transport to restore full feed intake and to ensure that adequate glycogen is present in muscle pre-slaughter to maintain meat quality.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

Rice responses to soil management in a rice-based cropping system in the semi-arid tropics of southern Lombok, Eastern Indonesia

This paper is the first of a series that investigates whether new cropping systems with permanent raised beds (PRBs) or Flat land could be successfully used to increase farmers' incomes from rainfed crops in Lombok in Eastern Indonesia. This paper discusses the rice phase of the cropping system. Low grain yields of dry-seeded rice (Oryza sativa) grown on Flat land on Vertisols in the rainfed region of southern Lombok, Eastern Indonesia, are probably mainly due to (a) erratic rainfall (870-1220 mm/yr), with water often limiting at sensitive growth stages, (b) consistently high temperatures (average maximum - 31 C), and (c) low solar radiation. Farmers are therefore poor, and labour is hard and costly, as all operations are manual. Two replicated field experiments were run at Wakan (annual rainfall = 868 mm) and Kawo (1215 mm) for 3 years (2001/2002 to 2003/2004) on Vertisols in southern Lombok. Dry-seeded rice was grown in 4 treatments with or without manual tillage on (a) PRBs, 1.2 m wide, 200 mm high, separated by furrows 300 mm wide, 200 mill deep, with no rice sown in the well-graded furrows, and (b) well-graded Flat land. Excess surface water was harvested from each treatment and used for irrigation after the vegetative stage of the rice. All operations were manual. There were no differences between treatments in grain yield of rice (mean grain yield = 681 g/m(2)) which could be partly explained by total number of tillers/hill and mean panicle length, but not number of productive tillers/hill, plant height or weight of 1000 grains. When the data from both treatments on PRBs and from both treatments on Flat land, each year at each site were analysed, there were also no differences in grain yield of rice (g/m(2)). When rainfall in the wet season up to harvest was over 1000 mm (Year 2; Wakan, Kawo), or plants were water-stressed during crop establishment (Year 1; Wakan) or during grain-fill (Year 3: Kawo), there were significant differences in grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) between treatments; generally the grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) on PRBs with or without tillage was less than that on Flat land with or without tillage. However, when the data from both treatments on PRBs and from both treatments on Flat land, each year at each site, were analysed, the greater grain yield of dry-seeded rice on Flat land (mean yield 1 092 g/1.5 m(2)) than that on PRBs (mean 815 g/1.5 m(2)) was mainly because there were 25% more plants on Flat land. Overall when the data in the 2 outer rows and the 2 inner rows on PRBs were each combined, there was a higher number of productive tillers in the combined outer rows (mean 20.7 tillers/hill) compared with that in the combined inner rows on each PRB (mean 18.2 tillers/hill). However, there were no differences in grain yield between combined rows (mean 142 g/m row). Hence with a gap of 500 mm (the distance between the outer rows of plants on adjacent raised beds), plants did not compensate in grain yield for missing plants in furrows. This suggests that rice (a) also sown in furrows, or (b) sown in 7 rows with narrower row-spacing, or (c) sown in 6 rows with slightly wider row-spacing, and narrower gap between outer rows on adjacent beds, may further increase grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) in this system of PRBs. The growth and the grain yield (y in g/m(2)) of rainfed rice (with rainfall on-site the only source of water for irrigation) depended mainly on the rainfall (x in mm) in the wet season up to harvest (due either to site or year) with y = 1. 1x -308; r(2) = 0.54; p < 0.005. However, 280 mm (i.e. 32%) of the rainfall was not directly used to produce grain (i.e. when y = 0 g/m(2)). Manual tillage did not affect growth and grain yield of rice (g/m(2); g/1.5 m(2)), either on PRB or on Flat land.

Strawberry: best soil, water and nutrient management practices

A guide to better soil, water and nutrient management practices for the south east Queensland strawberry industry.

Buoyancy and germination of pond apple (Annona glabra L.) propagules in fresh and salt water

Stephen Setter, Melissa Setter, Michael Graham and Joe Vitelli recently published their paper 'Buoyancy and germination of pond apple (Annona glabra L.) propagules in fresh and salt water' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. Stephen also presented this paper at the conference. Pond apple is an aggressive woody weed which has invaded many wetlands, drainage lines and riparian systems across the Wet Tropics bioregion of Far North Queensland. Most fruit and seed produced by pond apple during the summer wet season fall directly into creeks, river banks, flood plains and swamps from where they are dispersed. They reported that pond apple seeds can float for up to 12 months in either fresh or salt water, with approximately 38% of these seeds germinating in a soil medium once removed from the experimental water tanks at South Johnstone. Their study suggested that the removal of reproductive trees from areas adjacent to creeks and rivers will have an immediate impact on potential spread of pond apple by limiting seed input into flowing water bodies.

Effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency and dry mass

Water regulations have decreased irrigation water supplies in Nebraska and some other areas of the USA Great Plains. When available water is not enough to meet crop water requirements during the entire growing cycle, it becomes critical to know the proper irrigation timing that would maximize yields and profits. This study evaluated the effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation (150 mm) on crop evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiency (WUE = yield/ETc), irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry mass (DM) of corn (Zea mays L.) irrigated with subsurface drip irrigation in the semiarid climate of North Platte, NE. During 2005 and 2006, a total of sixteen irrigation treatments (eight each year) were evaluated, which received different percentages of the water allocation during July, August, and September. During both years, all treatments resulted in no crop stress during the vegetative period and stress during the reproductive stages, which affected ETc, DM, yield, WUE and IWUE. Among treatments, ETc varied by 7.2 and 18.8%; yield by 17 and 33%; WUE by 12 and 22%, and IWUE by 18 and 33% in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yield and WUE both increased linearly with ETc and with ETc/ETp (ETp = seasonal ETc with no water stress), and WUE increased linearly with yield. The yield response factor (ky) averaged 1.50 over the two seasons. Irrigation timing affected the DM of the plant, grain, and cob, but not that of the stover. It also affected the percent of DM partitioned to the grain (harvest index), which increased linearly with ETc and averaged 56.2% over the two seasons, but did not affect the percent allocated to the cob or stover. Irrigation applied in July had the highest positive coefficient of determination (R2) with yield. This high positive correlation decreased considerably for irrigation applied in August, and became negative for irrigation applied in September. The best positive correlation between the soil water deficit factor (Ks) and yield occurred during weeks 12-14 from crop emergence, during the "milk" and "dough" growth stages. Yield was poorly correlated to stress during weeks 15 and 16, and the correlation became negative after week 17. Dividing the 150 mm allocation about evenly among July, August and September was a good strategy resulting in the highest yields in 2005, but not in 2006. Applying a larger proportion of the allocation in July was a good strategy during both years, and the opposite resulted when applying a large proportion of the allocation in September. The different results obtained between years indicate that flexible irrigation scheduling techniques should be adopted, rather than relying on fixed timing strategies.

Soil type does not affect seed ageing when soil water potential and temperature are controlled

To investigate the effects of soil type on seed persistence in a manner that controlled for location and climate variables, three weed species—Gomphocarpus physocarpus (swan plant), Avena sterilis ssp. ludoviciana (wild oat) and Ligustrum lucidum (broadleaf privet)—were buried for 21 months in three contrasting soils at a single location. Soil type had a significant effect on seed persistence and seedling vigour, but soil water content and temperature varied between soils due to differences in physical and chemical properties. Warmer, wetter conditions favoured shorter persistence. A laboratory-based test was developed to accelerate the rate of seed ageing within soils, using controlled superoptimal temperature and moisture conditions (the soil-specific accelerated ageing test, SSAAT). The SSAAT demonstrated that soil type per se did not influence seed longevity. Moreover, the order in which seeds aged was the same whether aged in the field or SSAAT, with L. lucidum being shortest-lived and A. sterilis being longest-lived of the three species.

Do elasmobranch reactions to magnetic fields in water show promise for bycatch mitigation?

Elasmobranchs are under increasing pressure from targeted fisheries worldwide, but unregulated bycatch is perhaps their greatest threat. This study tested five elasmobranch bycatch species (Sphyrna lewini, Carcharhinus tilstoni, Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, Rhizoprionodon acutus, Glyphis glyphis) and one targeted teleost species (Lates calcarifer) to determine whether magnetic fields caused a reaction response and/or change in spatial use of an experimental arena. All elasmobranch species reacted to magnets at distances between 0.26 and 0.58 m at magnetic strengths between 25 and 234 gauss and avoided the area around the magnets. Contrastingly, the teleosts showed no reaction response and congregated around the magnets. The different reactions of the teleosts and elasmobranchs are presumably driven by the presence of ampullae of Lorenzini in the elasmobranchs; different reaction distances between elasmobranch species appeared to correlate with their feeding ecology. Elasmobranchs with a higher reliance on the electroreceptive sense to locate prey reacted to the magnets at the greatest distance, except G. glyphis. Notably, this is the only elasmobranch species tested with a fresh- and saltwater phase in their ecology, which may account for the decreased magnetic sensitivity. The application of magnets worldwide to mitigate the bycatch of elasmobranchs appears promising based on these results.

Analysis and Modelling of the Effects of Water Stress on Maize Growth and Yield in Dryland Conditions.

It is essential to provide experimental evidence and reliable predictions of the effects of water stress on crop production in the drier, less predictable environments. A field experiment undertaken in southeast Queensland, Australia with three water regimes (fully irrigated, rainfed and irrigated until late canopy expansion followed by rainfed) was used to compare effects of water stress on crop production in two maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars (Pioneer 34N43 and Pioneer 31H50). Water stress affected growth and yield more in Pioneer 34N43 than in Pioneer 31H50. A crop model APSIM-Maize, after having been calibrated for the two cultivars, was used to simulate maize growth and development under water stress. The predictions on leaf area index (LAI) dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield under rain fed and irrigated followed by rain fed treatments was reasonable, indicating that stress indices used by APSIM-Maize produced appropriate adjustments to crop growth and development in response to water stress. This study shows that Pioneer 31H50 is less sensitive to water stress and thus a preferred cultivar in dryland conditions, and that it is feasible to provide sound predictions and risk assessment for crop production in drier, more variable conditions using the APSIM-Maize model.