20 resultados para uncertain polynomials


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A case study was undertaken to determine the economic impact of a change in management class as detailed in the A, B, C and D management class framework. This document focuses on the implications of changing from D to C, C to B and B to A class management in the Burdekin Delta region and if the change is worthwhile from an economic perspective. This report provides a guide to the economic impact that may be expected when undertaking a particular change in farming practices and will ultimately lead to more informed decisions being made by key industry stakeholders. It is recognised that these management classes have certain limitations and in many cases the grouping of practices may not be reflective of the real situation. The economic case study is based on the A, B, C and D management class framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 for the Burdekin natural resource management region. The framework for the Burdekin is currently being updated to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics. As part of the project specification, sugarcane crop production data for the Burdekin Delta region was provided by the APSIM model. The information obtained from the APSIM crop modelling programme included sugarcane yields and legume grain yield (legume grain yield only applies to A class management practice). Because of the complexity involved in the economic calculations, a combination of the FEAT, PiRisk and a custom made spreadsheet was used for the economic analysis. Figures calculated in the FEAT program were transferred to the custom made spreadsheet to develop a discounted cash flow analysis. The marginal cash flow differences for each farming system were simulated over a 5-year and 10-year planning horizon to determine the Net Present Value of changing across different management practices. PiRisk was used to test uncertain parameters in the economic analysis and the potential risk associated with a change in value.

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A case study was undertaken to determine the economic impact of a change in management class as detailed in the A, B, C and D management class framework. This document focuses on the implications of changing from D to C, C to B and B to A class management in the Tully region and if the change is worthwhile from an economic perspective. This report provides a guide to the economic impact that may be expected when undertaking a particular change in farming practices and will ultimately lead to more informed decisions being made by key industry stakeholders. It is recognised that these management classes have certain limitations and in many cases the grouping of practices may not be reflective of the real situation. The economic case study is based on the A, B, C and D management class framework for water quality improvement developed in 2007/2008 by the wet tropics natural resource management region. The framework for wet tropics is currently being updated to clarify some issues and incorporate new knowledge since the earlier version of the framework. However, this updated version is not yet complete and so the Paddock to Reef project has used the most current available version of the framework for the modelling and economics. As part of the project specification, sugarcane crop production data for the Tully region was provided by the APSIM model. Because of the complexity involved in the economic calculations, a combination of the FEAT, PiRisk and a custom made spreadsheet was used for the economic analysis. Figures calculated in the FEAT program were transferred to the custom made spreadsheet to develop a discounted cash flow analysis. The marginal cash flow differences for each farming system were simulated over a 5-year and 10-year planning horizon to determine the Net Present Value of changing across different management practices. PiRisk was used to test uncertain parameters in the economic analysis and the potential risk associated with a change in value.

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The Australian African mahogany estate comprises over 12,000 ha of industrial plantations, farm-forestry plots and trials, virtually all derived from Africa-sourced wild seed. However, the better trees have given high-value products such as veneers, high-grade boards and award-winning furniture. Collaborative conservation and improvement by the Northern Territory (NT) and Queensland governments since 2000 realised seed orchards, hedge gardens and genetic tests revealing promising clones and families. Private sector R&D since the mid 2000s includes silvicultural-management and wood studies, participatory testing of government material and establishing over 90 African provenances and many single-tree seedlots in multisite provenance and family trials. Recent, mainly public sector research included a 5-agency project of 2009-12 resulting in advanced propagation technologies and greater knowledge of biology, wood properties and processing. Operational priority in the short term should focus on developing seed production areas and ‘rolling front’ clonal seed orchards. R&D priorities should include: developing and implementing a collaborative improvement strategy based on pooled resources; developing non-destructive evaluation of select-tree wood properties, micropropagation (including field testing of material from this source) to ‘industry ready’ and a select-tree index; optimising seed production in orchards; advancing controlled pollination techniques; and maximising benefits from the progeny, clone and provenance trials. Australia leads the world in improvement and ex situ conservation of African mahogany based on the governments’ 13-year program and more recent industry inputs such that accumulated genetic resources total over 120 provenances and many families from 15 of the 19 African countries of its range. Having built valuable genetic resources, expertise, technologies and knowledge, the species is almost ‘industry ready’. The industry will benefit if it exploits the comparative advantage these assets provide. However the status of much of the diverse germplasm introduced since the mid 2000s is uncertain due to changes in ownership. Further, recent reductions of government investment in forestry R&D will be detrimental unless the industry fills the funding gaps. Expansion and sustainability of the embryonic industry must capitalise on past and current R&D, while initiating and sustaining critical new work through all-stakeholder collaboration.

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The Mobulidae are zooplanktivorous elasmobranchs comprising two recognized species of manta rays (Manta spp.) and nine recognized species of devil rays (Mobula spp.). They are found circumglobally in tropical, subtropical and temperate coastal waters. Although mobulids have been recorded for over 400 years, critical knowledge gaps still compromise the ability to assess the status of these species. On the basis of a review of 263 publications, a comparative synthesis of the biology and ecology of mobulids was conducted to examine their evolution, taxonomy, distribution, population trends, movements and aggregation, reproduction, growth and longevity, feeding, natural mortality and direct and indirect anthropogenic threats. There has been a marked increase in the number of published studies on mobulids since c. 1990, particularly for the genus Manta, although the genus Mobula remains poorly understood. Mobulid species have many common biological characteristics although their ecologies appear to be species-specific, and sometimes region-specific. Movement studies suggest that mobulids are highly mobile and have the potential to rapidly travel large distances. Fishing pressure is the major threat to many mobulid populations, with current levels of exploitation in target fisheries unlikely to be sustainable. Advances in the fields of population genetics, acoustic and satellite tracking, and stable-isotope and fatty-acid analyses will provide new insights into the biology and ecology of these species. Future research should focus on the uncertain taxonomy of mobulid species, the degree of overlap between their large-scale movement and human activities such as fisheries and pollution, and the need for management of inter-jurisdictional fisheries in developing nations to ensure their long-term sustainability. Closer collaboration among researchers worldwide is necessary to ensure standardized sampling and modelling methodologies to underpin global population estimates and status.

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Management of cucumber fly (Bactrocera cucumis) has relied heavily on cover sprays of broad spectrum insecticides such as dimethoate and fenthion. Long term access to these insecticides is uncertain, and their use can disrupt integrated pest management programs for other pests such as whitefly, aphids and mites. Application of a protein bait spray for fruit fly control is common practice in tree crops. However, vegetable crops present different challenges as fruit flies are thought to enter these crops only to oviposit, spending the majority of their time in roosting sites outside of the cropping area. Perimeter baiting of non-crop vegetation was developed overseas as a technique for control of melon fly (B. cucurbitae) in cucurbits in Hawaii. More recent work has refined the technique further, with certain types of perimeter vegetation proving more attractive to melon fly than the sorghum or corn crops which are commonly utilised. Trials were performed to investigate the potential of developing a similar system for cucumber fly. Commercially available fruit fly baits were compared for attractiveness to cucumber fly. Eight plant species were evaluated for their relative attractiveness to cucumber flies as roosting sites. Differences were observed in the number of flies feeding at protein bait applied to each of the plants. Results are discussed in the context of the development of a perimeter baiting system for cucumber fly in cucurbit crops.