Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

Sugarcane productivity response to different fallow and soybean residue management practices in the Bundaberg district

GRAIN LEGUME ROTATIONS underpin the sustainability of the Australian sugarcane farming system, offering a number of soil health and environmental benefits. Recent studies have highlighted the potential for these breaks to exacerbate nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. An experiment was implemented in 2012 to evaluate the impact of two fallow management options (bare fallow and soybean break crop) and different soybean residue management practices on N2O emissions and sugarcane productivity. The bare fallow plots were conventionally tilled, whereas the soybean treatments were either tilled, not tilled, residue sprayed with nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) prior to tillage or had a triticale ‘catch crop’ sown between the soybean and sugarcane crops. The fallow plots received either no nitrogen (N0) or fully fertilised (N145) whereas the soybean treatments received 25 kg N/ha at planting only. The Fallow N145 treatment yielded 8% more cane than the soybean tilled treatment. However there was no statistical difference in sugar productivity. Cane yield was correlated with stalk number that was correlated to soil mineral nitrogen status in January. There was only 30% more N/ha in the above-ground biomass between the Fallow N145 and the Fallow N0 treatment; highlighting poor fertiliser nitrogen use efficiency. Supplying adequate nitrogen to meet productivity requirements without causing environmental harm remains a challenge for the Australian sugar industry. The soybean direct drill treatment significantly reduced N2O emissions and produced similar yields and profitability to the soybean tilled treatment (outlined in a companion paper by Wang et.al. in these proceedings). Furthermore, this study has highlighted that the soybean direct drill technique provides an opportunity to enable grain legume cropping in the sugarcane farming system to capture all of the soil health/environmental benefits without exacerbating N2O emissions from Australian sugarcane soils.