Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.

Gene flow from Corymbia hybrids in northern New South Wales

Some of the most productive taxa for forestry are interspecific F1 hybrids grown as exotics in the tropics and subtropics. Attributes of resilience, adaptability and vigour which engender the hybrids for wood production, may also exacerbate the risk they present from gene flow to native species gene pools or to local ecologies as weeds. To determine the biological and genetic factors that influence the extent of hybridisation, we examine the distribution and genealogy of wildlings surrounding plantings of locally-exotic Corymbia torelliana (Section Cadageria) near native C. henryi (Section Maculatae) in northern New South Wales. Our study showed pre-mating and pre- and post-zygotic barriers were incomplete, with in situ generation and natural establishment of both F1 hybrids (n = 3) and advanced generation hybrids under the disturbed conditions bordering native forest. As hybrids were located on alluvial flats exposed to frost, they also likely have an extended ecological range relative to native C. henryi. Despite the likely generation of large viable seed crops on F1 trees at the site over many years, establishment success and survival of advanced generation hybrids may be low, as only 5 immature and no mature advanced generation hybrids were identified. Propagation and genetic analysis of a seed crop from one F1 wildling showed early survival and vigour of seedlings in cultivation was high, and that at least for some F1 in some seasons, backcrossing to the recurrent native C. henryi parent is favoured (60%), whereas selfing (10%) and crossing with other F1 (30%) was less frequent. Transport of seed by stingless bees probably accounted for long distance dispersal from C. torelliana, but this mechanism does not appear to supplement gravity-dispersal of seed from the F1. Coupled with other evidence from studies of bee behaviour, controlled pollination in Corymbia sp., and long-term fitness in second generation eucalypt hybrids, we anticipate gene flow via pollen rather than seed will be the greater challenge for managing the risk of introgression of C. torelliana ancestry into native species from the planted F1 hybrid. If large sources of F1 pollen become available to compete with native pollen, gene flow will probably be frequent and hybrids may establish in disturbed conditions and in habitats beyond the ecological range of their native parent. Further study is needed to determine the degree to which outbreeding depression and poor survival inhibits on-going gene flow.