36 resultados para range uncertainty


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In collaboration with the New South Wales Department of Primary Industries we compared the effectiveness of the spanner crab monitoring systems used by New South Wales and Queensland and developed a fishery-independent survey protocol acceptable to both states. The objectives of this project were to: 1. Determine the age at which spanner crabs (Ranina ranina) recruit to the fishery 2. Develop a common methodology for monitoring and assessing the Australian spanner crab stock 3. Investigate sources of variability in apparent population density.

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Background: Understanding the long-distance movement of bats has direct relevance to studies of population dynamics, ecology, disease emergence, and conservation. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed and trialed several collar and platform terminal transmitter (PTT) combinations on both free-living and captive fruit bats (Family Pteropodidae: Genus Pteropus). We examined transmitter weight, size, profile and comfort as key determinants of maximized transmitter activity. We then tested the importance of bat-related variables (species size/weight, roosting habitat and behavior) and environmental variables (day-length, rainfall pattern) in determining optimal collar/PTT configuration. We compared battery- and solar-powered PTT performance in various field situations, and found the latter more successful in maintaining voltage on species that roosted higher in the tree canopy, and at lower density, than those that roost more densely and lower in trees. Finally, we trialed transmitter accuracy, and found that actual distance errors and Argos location class error estimates were in broad agreement. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that no single collar or transmitter design is optimal for all bat species, and that species size/weight, species ecology and study objectives are key design considerations. Our study provides a strategy for collar and platform choice that will be applicable to a larger number of bat species as transmitter size and weight continue to decrease in the future.

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To evaluate the role of using forage, shade and shelterbelts in attracting birds into the range, three trials were undertaken with free range layers both on a research facility and on commercial farms. Each of the trials on the free range research facility in South Australia used a total of 120 laying hens (Hyline Brown). Birds were housed in an eco-shelter which had 6 internal pens of equal size with a free range area adjoining the shelter. The on-farm trials were undertaken on commercial free range layer farms in the Darling Downs in Southeast Queensland with bird numbers on farms ranging from 2,000-6,800 hens. The first research trial examined the role of shaded areas in the range; the second trial examined the role of forage and the third trial examined the influence of shelterbelts in the range. These treatments were compared to a free range area with no enrichment. Aggressive feather pecking was only observed on a few occasions in all of the trials due to the low bird numbers housed. Enriching the free range environment attracted more birds into the range. Shaded areas were used by 18% of the hens with a tendency (p = 0.07) for more hens to be in the paddock. When forage was provided in paddocks more control birds (55%) were observed in the range in morning than in the afternoon (30%) while for the forage treatments 45% of the birds were in the range both during the morning and afternoon. When shelterbelts were provided there was a significantly (p<0.05) higher % of birds in the range (43% vs. 24%) and greater numbers of birds were observed in areas further away from the poultry house. The results from the on-farm trials mirrored the research trials. Overall 3 times more hens used the shaded areas than the non shaded areas, with slightly more using the shade in the morning than in the afternoon. As the environmental temperature increased the number of birds using the outdoor shade also increased. Overall 17 times more hens used the shelterbelt areas than the control areas, with slightly more using the shelterbelts in the afternoon than in the morning. Approximately 17 times more birds used the forage areas compared to the control area in the corresponding range. There were 8 times more birds using a hay bale enriched area compared to the area with no hay bales. The use of forage sources (including hay bales) were the most successful method on-farm to attract birds into the range followed by shelterbelts and artificial shade. Free range egg farmers are encouraged to provide pasture, shaded areas and shelterbelts to attract birds into the free range.

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Parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus L.), a major weed causing economic, environmental, and human and animal health problems in Australia and several countries in Asia, Africa, and the Pacific, has been a target for biological control in Australia since the mid-1970s. Nine species of insects and two rust fungi have been introduced as biological control agents into Australia. These include Carmenta sp. nr ithacae, a root feeding agent from Mexico. The larvae of C. sp. nr ithacae bore through the stem-base into the root where they feed on the cortical tissue of the taproot. During 1998-2002, 2,816 larval-infested plants and 387 adults were released at 31 sites across Queensland, Australia. Evidence of field establishment was first observed in two of the release sites in central Queensland in 2004. Annual surveys at these sites and nonrelease sites during 2006-2011 showed wide variations in the incidence and abundance of C. sp. nr ithacae between years and sites. Surveys at three of the nine release sites in northern Queensland and 16 of the 22 release sites in central Queensland confirmed the field establishment of C. sp. nr ithacae in four release sites and four nonrelease sites, all in central Queensland. No field establishment was evident in the inland region or in northern Queensland. A CLIMEX model based on the native range distribution of C. sp. nr ithacae predicts that areas east of the dividing range along the coast are more suitable for field establishment than inland areas. Future efforts to redistribute this agent should be restricted to areas identified as climatically favorable by the CLIMEX model.

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The research undertaken here was in response to a decision by a major food producer in about 2009 to consider establishing processing tomato production in northern Australia. This was in response to a lack of water availability in the Goulburn Valley region following the extensive drought that continued until 2011. The high price of water and the uncertainty that went with it was important in making the decision to look at sites within Queensland. This presented an opportunity to develop a tomato production model for the varieties used in the processing industry and to use this as a case study along with rice and cotton production. Following some unsuccessful early trials and difficulties associated with the Global Financial Crisis, large scale studies by the food producer were abandoned. This report uses the data that was collected prior to this decision and contrasts the use of crop modelling with simpler climatic analyses that can be undertaken to investigate the impact of climate change on production systems. Crop modelling can make a significant contribution to our understanding of the impacts of climate variability and climate change because it harnesses the detailed understanding of physiology of the crop in a way that statistical or other analytical approaches cannot do. There is a high overhead, but given that trials are being conducted for a wide range of crops for a variety of purposes, breeding, fertiliser trials etc., it would appear to be profitable to link researchers with modelling expertise with those undertaking field trials. There are few more cost-effective approaches than modelling that can provide a pathway to understanding future climates and their impact on food production.

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Three experiments were conducted to determine liveweight (W) gain and feed and water intake of weaned Bali cattle offered a range of feed types. In each experiment, 18 weaned entire male Bali cattle were allocated to three treatment groups in a completely randomised block design, with six replicates (animals) per treatment. The dietary treatments were: Experiment 1, native grass fed ad libitum, native grass supplemented with rice bran at 10 g dry matter (DM)/kg W.day and native grass supplemented with a mixture of rice bran and copra meal in equal proportions fed at 10 g DM/kg W.day; Experiment 2, elephant grass hay fed ad libitum, elephant grass supplemented with gliricidia at 10 g DM/kg W.day, and gliricidia fed ad libitum; and Experiment 3, corn stover fed ad libitum, corn stover supplemented with gliricidia at 10 g DM/kg W.day, and corn stover supplemented with rice bran/copra meal in equal amounts (w/w) at 10 g DM/kg W.day. Each experiment was 10 weeks in duration, consisting of a 2-week preliminary period for adaptation to diets and an 8-week experimental period for the measurement of W change, feed and water intake and digestibility of the diet. Growth rates of 6-12-month-old, entire male Bali cattle fed a range of local diets ranged from 0.10 and 0.40 kg/day. Lowest growth rates occurred when the cattle were given the basal diets of native grass (0.104 kg/day), elephant grass (0.174 kg/day) and corn stover (0.232 kg/day). With the addition of supplements such as rice bran, rice bran/copra meal or gliricidia to these basal diets liveweight gains increased to between 0.225 and 0.402 kg/day. Forage DM intake was reduced with these supplements by on average 22.6% while total DM intake was increased by an average of 10.5%. The growth rate on gliricidia alone was 0.269 kg/day and feed DM intake was 28.0 g/kg W.day. Water intake was not affected by supplement type or intake. In conclusion, inclusion of small quantities of locally available, high quality feed supplements provide small-holder farmers with the potential to increase growth rates of Bali calves from 0.1 to 0.2 kg/day, under prevailing feeding scenarios, to over 0.4 kg/day.

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Aim: Decision-making in weed management involves consideration of limited budgets, long time horizons, conflicting priorities, and as a result, trade-offs. Economics provides tools that allow these issues to be addressed and is thus integral to management of the risks posed by weeds. One of the critical issues in weed risk management during the early stages of an invasion concerns feasibility of eradication. We briefly review how economics may be used in weed risk management, concentrating on this management strategy. Location: Australia. Methods: A range of innovative studies that investigate aspects of weed risk management are reviewed. We show how these could be applied to newly invading weeds, focussing on methods for investigating eradication feasibility. In particular, eradication feasibility is analysed in terms of cost and duration of an eradication programme, using a simulation model based on field-derived parameter values for chromolaena, Chromolaena odorata. Results: The duration of an eradication programme can be reduced by investing in progressively higher amounts of search effort per hectare, but increasing search area will become relatively more expensive as search effort increases. When variation in survey and control success is taken into account, increasing search effort also reduces uncertainty around the required duration of the eradication programme. Main conclusions: Economics is integral to the management of the risks posed by weeds. Decision analysis, based on economic principles, is now commonly used to tackle key issues that confront weed managers. For eradication feasibility, duration and cost of a weed eradication programme are critical components; the dimensions of both factors can usefully be estimated through simulation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Tribolium castaneum Herbst (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) is a common stored grain pest for which a wide range of suitable resources has been recorded. These beetles are facultatively fungivorous and their resource range may extend to fungi associated with non-grain resources (e.g. cotton seed) and other decaying plant matter. Little is known with respect to fungi in terms of resource location by these beetles in the field. We, therefore, conducted a series of experiments in laboratory arenas, glasshouse cages and the field to determine how beetles respond to grain resources in relation to cotton seed (together with its lint stubble and associated fungal flora). Results from the tests conducted in relatively small arenas and cages in the laboratory and glasshouse reveal that the responses of T. castaneum adults to food resources were twice as strong when walking as when flying (as measured by the proportion of the released beetles that were trapped). Also, a clear preference for linted cotton seeds was evident in walking T. castaneum, especially in small-scale arenas in the laboratory, where at least 60% of beetles released preferred linted cotton seeds over wheat and sorghum. Similarly, in cages (1 m3) they responded five times more strongly to linted cotton seed than to conventional grain resources. However, this pattern was not consistent with those obtained from field trapping over 20 m and the beetles did not show any particular preference to any of the resources tested above. Our results suggest a focus on walking beetles in trapping studies for population estimations and, for developing effective food-based trapping lures, the potential use of active volatiles from the fungi associated with linted cotton seed. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

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Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

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The stay-green drought adaptation mechanism has been widely promoted as a way of improving grain yield and lodging resistance in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and as a result has been the subject of many physiological and genetic studies. The relevance of these studies to elite sorghum hybrids is not clear given that they sample a limited number of environments and were conducted using inbred lines or relatively small numbers of experimental F-1 hybrids. In this study we investigated the relationship between stay-green and yield using data from breeding trials that sampled 1668 unique hybrid combinations and 23 environments whose mean yields varied from 2.3 to 10.5 t ha(-1). The strength and direction of the association between stay-green and grain yield varied with both environment and genetic background (male tester). The majority of associations were positive, particularly in environments with yields below 6 t ha(-1). As trial mean yield increased above 6 t ha(-1) there was a trend toward an increased number of negative associations; however, the number and magnitude of the positive associations were larger. Given that post-flowering drought is very commonly experienced by sorghum crops world wide and average yields are 1.2 and 2.5 t ha(-1) for the world and Australia, respectively, our results indicate that selection for stay-green in elite sorghum hybrids may be broadly beneficial for increasing yield in a wide range of environments.

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More than 1200 wheat and 120 barley experiments conducted in Australia to examine yield responses to applied nitrogen (N) fertiliser are contained in a national database of field crops nutrient research (BFDC National Database). The yield responses are accompanied by various pre-plant soil test data to quantify plant-available N and other indicators of soil fertility status or mineralisable N. A web application (BFDC Interrogator), developed to access the database, enables construction of calibrations between relative crop yield ((Y0/Ymax) × 100) and N soil test value. In this paper we report the critical soil test values for 90% RY (CV90) and the associated critical ranges (CR90, defined as the 70% confidence interval around that CV90) derived from analysis of various subsets of these winter cereal experiments. Experimental programs were conducted throughout Australia’s main grain-production regions in different eras, starting from the 1960s in Queensland through to Victoria during 2000s. Improved management practices adopted during the period were reflected in increasing potential yields with research era, increasing from an average Ymax of 2.2 t/ha in Queensland in the 1960s and 1970s, to 3.4 t/ha in South Australia (SA) in the 1980s, to 4.3 t/ha in New South Wales (NSW) in the 1990s, and 4.2 t/ha in Victoria in the 2000s. Various sampling depths (0.1–1.2 m) and methods of quantifying available N (nitrate-N or mineral-N) from pre-planting soil samples were used and provided useful guides to the need for supplementary N. The most regionally consistent relationships were established using nitrate-N (kg/ha) in the top 0.6 m of the soil profile, with regional and seasonal variation in CV90 largely accounted for through impacts on experimental Ymax. The CV90 for nitrate-N within the top 0.6 m of the soil profile for wheat crops increased from 36 to 110 kg nitrate-N/ha as Ymax increased over the range 1 to >5 t/ha. Apparent variation in CV90 with seasonal moisture availability was entirely consistent with impacts on experimental Ymax. Further analyses of wheat trials with available grain protein (~45% of all experiments) established that grain yield and not grain N content was the major driver of crop N demand and CV90. Subsets of data explored the impact of crop management practices such as crop rotation or fallow length on both pre-planting profile mineral-N and CV90. Analyses showed that while management practices influenced profile mineral-N at planting and the likelihood and size of yield response to applied N fertiliser, they had no significant impact on CV90. A level of risk is involved with the use of pre-plant testing to determine the need for supplementary N application in all Australian dryland systems. In southern and western regions, where crop performance is based almost entirely on in-crop rainfall, this risk is offset by the management opportunity to split N applications during crop growth in response to changing crop yield potential. In northern cropping systems, where stored soil moisture at sowing is indicative of minimum yield potential, erratic winter rainfall increases uncertainty about actual yield potential as well as reducing the opportunity for effective in-season applications.

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The Cotton Catchment Communities Cooperative Research Centre began during a period of rapid uptake of Bollgard II® cotton, which contains genes to express two Bt proteins that control the primary pests of cotton in Australia, Helicoverpa armigera and H. punctigera. The dramatic uptake of this technology presumably resulted in strong selection pressure for resistance in Helicoverpa spp. against the Bt proteins. The discovery of higher than expected levels of resistance in both species against one of the proteins in Bollgard II® cotton (Cry2Ab) led to significant re-evaluation of the resistance management plan developed for this technology, which was a core area of research for the Cotton CRC. The uptake of Bollgard II® cotton also led to a substantial decline in pesticide applications against Helicoverpa spp. (from 10–14 to 0–3 applications per season). The low spray environment allowed some pests not controlled by the Bt proteins to emerge as more significant pests, especially sucking species such as Creontiades dilutus and Nezara viridula. A range of other minor pests have also sporadically arisen as problems. Lack of knowledge and experience with these pests created uncertainty and encouraged insecticide use, which threatened to undermine the gains made with Bollgard II® cotton. Here we chronicle the achievements of the Cotton CRC in providing the industry with new knowledge and management strategies for these pests.

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Prickly acacia (Vachellia nilotica subsp. indica), a native of the Indian subcontinent, is a serious weed of the grazing areas of northern Australia and is a target for classical biological control. Native range surveys in India identified a leaf webber, Phycita sp. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) as a prospective biological control agent for prickly acacia. In this study, we report the life cycle and host-specificity test results Phycita sp. and highlight the contradictory results between the no-choice tests in India and Australia and the field host range in India. In no-choice tests in India and Australia, Phycita sp. completed development on two of 11 and 16 of 27 non-target test plant species, respectively. Although Phycita sp. fed and completed development on two non-target test plant species (Vachellia planifrons and V. leucophloea) in no-choice tests in India, there was no evidence of the insect on the two non-target test plant species in the field. Our contention is that oviposition behaviour could be the key mechanism in host selection of Phycita sp., resulting in its incidence only on prickly acacia in India. This is supported by paired oviposition choice tests involving three test plant species (Acacia baileyana, A. mearnsii and A. deanei) in quarantine in Australia, where eggs were laid only on prickly acacia. However, in paired oviposition choice trials, only few eggs were laid, making the results unreliable. Although oviposition choice tests suggest that prickly acacia is the most preferred and natural host, difficulties in conducting choice oviposition tests with fully grown trees under quarantine conditions in Australia and the logistic difficulties of conducting open-field tests with fully grown native Australian plants in India have led to rejection of Phycita sp. as a potential biological control agent for prickly acacia in Australia.

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The host range of two newly imported biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus and their potential as biological control agents of Cylindropuntia spp. were investigated. A third biotype (imbricata) of D. tomentosus previously released in Australia to control C. imbricata was also screened to determine if it will feed on other species of Cylindropuntia occurring in Australia. Efficacy trials were conducted to evaluate the ability of the biotypes to retard the growth or kill those plant species supporting development of four or more individuals in the host test trials. The host range of the three biotypes of D. tomentosus was restricted to the genus Cylindropuntia. However, the biotypes showed varying degrees of specificity within this genus. The imbricata biotype was the only biotype to develop on Australian C. rosea provenances, albeit with a range of developmental success on all C. rosea provenances tested. The Spanish provenance supported the highest development success followed by Grawin (NSW), Lorne Station (NSW) while the least preferred was the Mexican provenance. The rosea and cholla biotypes were unsuitable candidates to control C. rosea in Australia. However, the efficacy trials showed that the cholla biotype had a high impact on four of the eight naturalised Cylindropuntia species in Australia. This biotype established rapidly and the sustained feeding of one fecund female and her progeny killed potted plants of C. imbricata and C. fulgida at week 18. This biotype has the potential to be an effective agent against C. fulgida, C. imbricata, C. kleiniae and C. tunicata and, as a consequence, an application seeking its release in Australia has been lodged.