Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest

Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km(2) region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.

Does lethal control of top-predators release mesopredators? A re-evaluation of three Australian case studies

Top-predators can sometimes be important for structuring fauna assemblages in terrestrial ecosystems. Through a complex trophic cascade, the lethal control of top-predators has been predicted to elicit positive population responses from mesopredators that may in turn increase predation pressure on prey species of concern. In support of this hypothesis, many relevant research papers, opinion pieces and literature reviews identify three particular case studies as supporting evidence for top-predator control-induced release of mesopredators in Australia. However, many fundamental details essential for supporting this hypothesis are missing from these case studies, which were each designed to investigate alternative aims. Here, we re-evaluate the strength of evidence for top-predator control-induced mesopredator release from these three studies after comprehensive analyses of associated unpublished correlative and experimental data. Circumstantial evidence alluded to mesopredator releases of either the European Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) or feral Cat (Felis catus) coinciding with Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) control in each case. Importantly, however, substantial limitations in predator population sampling techniques and/or experimental designs preclude strong assertions about the effect of lethal control on mesopredator populations from these studies. In all cases, multiple confounding factors and plausible alternative explanations for observed changes in predator populations exist. In accord with several critical reviews and a growing body of demonstrated experimental evidence on the subject, we conclude that there is an absence of reliable evidence for top-predator control-induced mesopredator release from these three case studies. Well-designed and executed studies are critical for investigating potential top-predator control-induced mesopredator release.

Influence of dingoes on sheep distribution in Australia

Objective To describe the influence of the dingo (Canis lupus dingo) on the past, present and future distributions of sheep in Australia. Design The role of the dingo in the rise and fall of sheep numbers is reviewed, revised data are provided on the present distribution and density of sheep and dingoes, and historical patterns of sheep distribution are used to explore the future of rangeland sheep grazing. Results Dingoes are a critical causal factor in the distribution of sheep at the national, regional and local levels. Dingo predation contributed substantially to the historical contraction of the sheep industry to its present-day distribution, which is almost exclusively confined to areas within fenced dingo exclusion zones. Dingo populations and/or their influence are now present and increasing in all sheep production zones of Australia, inclusive of areas that were once dingo free'. Conclusions Rangeland production of wool and sheep meat is predicted to disappear within 30-40 years if the present rate of contraction of the industry continues unabated. Understanding the influence of dingoes on sheep production may help refine disease response strategies and help predict the future distribution of sheep and their diseases.

Demographic and functional responses of wild dogs to poison baiting

Lethal control of wild dogs - that is Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) and Dingo/Dog (Canis lupus familiaris) hybrids - to reduce livestock predation in Australian rangelands is claimed to cause continental-scale impacts on biodiversity. Although top predator populations may recover numerically after baiting, they are predicted to be functionally different and incapable of fulfilling critical ecological roles. This study reports the impact of baiting programmes on wild dog abundance, age structures and the prey of wild dogs during large-scale manipulative experiments. Wild dog relative abundance almost always decreased after baiting, but reductions were variable and short-lived unless the prior baiting programme was particularly effective or there were follow-up baiting programmes within a few months. However, age structures of wild dogs in baited and nil-treatment areas were demonstrably different, and prey populations did diverge relative to nil-treatment areas. Re-analysed observations of wild dogs preying on kangaroos from a separate study show that successful chases that result in attacks of kangaroos by wild dogs occurred when mean wild dog ages were higher and mean group size was larger. It is likely that the impact of lethal control on wild dog numbers, group sizes and age structures compromise their ability to handle large difficult-to-catch prey. Under certain circumstances, these changes sometimes lead to increased calf loss (Bos indicus/B. taurus genotypes) and kangaroo numbers. Rangeland beef producers could consider controlling wild dogs in high-risk periods when predation is more likely and avoid baiting at other times.

Consumption of crops by feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in a fragmented agricultural landscape

Feral pigs (Sus scrofa) consume and damage crops and impact the environment through predation, competition and habitat disturbance, although supporting dietary data are lacking in agricultural landscapes. This study was undertaken to determine the relative importance of food items in the diet of feral pigs in a fragmented agricultural landscape, particularly to assist in predicting the breadth of likely impacts. Diet composition was assessed from the stomach contents of 196 feral pigs from agricultural properties in southern Queensland. Feral pigs were herbivorous, with plant matter comprising >99% of biomass consumed. Crops were consumed more frequently than non-crop species, and comprised >60% of dietary biomass, indicating a clear potential for direct economic losses. Consumption of pasture and forage species also suggests potential competition for pasture with domestic stock. There is little evidence of direct predation on native fauna, but feral pig feeding activities may impact environmental values. Seasonal differences in consumption of crop, pasture or animal food groups probably reflect the changing availability of food items. We recommend that future dietary studies examine food availability to determine any dietary preferences to assist in determining the foods most susceptible to damage. The outcomes of this study are important for developing techniques for monitoring the impacts of feral pigs, essential for developing management options to reduce feral pig damage on agricultural lands.

Developmental biology and prey preference of Diomus notescens Blackburn (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): A predator of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

The minute two-spotted ladybeetle, Diomus notescens Blackburn is a common predator of aphids and other pests in Australian agricultural crops, however little is known about the biology of D. notescens. The aim of this study was to provide information on the life cycle of this predator and improve our understanding of its biological control potential, particularly against one of the major pests of cotton, Aphis gossypii Glover. In laboratory experiments, juvenile development, prey consumption, as well as adult lifespan and fecundity were studied. Results from this study revealed that D. notescens could successfully complete development on A. gossypii, which at 25 °C required 21 days and during this period they each consume 129 ± 5.2 aphids. At 25 °C adult lifespan was 77 ± 9.6 days, with a mean daily prey consumption of 28 ± 1.8 aphids and a mean daily fecundity of 8 ± 0.5 eggs. Net reproductive rate was estimated as 187 ± 25.1 females and the intrinsic rate of increase was estimated as 0.14. Juvenile development was recorded at four constant temperatures (15, 21, 26 and 27 °C) and using a linear model, the lower threshold for D. notescens development was estimated to be 10 ± 0.6 °C with 285 ± 4.7 degree days required to complete development. A prey choice experiment studying predation rates revealed a strong preference for A. gossypii nymphs compared to Bemisia tabaci Gennadius eggs.

The role of spiders as predators of two lepidopteran Brassica pests

Spiders are thought to play a significant role in limiting pest outbreaks in agroecosystems such as vineyards, orchards and cotton. The diversity and impact of spiders in vegetable crops are less well understood, although there is evidence that predators may be important for suppression of lepidopteran pests in Brassica crops, particularly early in the season before parasitoids become established. Sampling was conducted in early season plantings of Brassicas in the Lockyer Valley (South East Queensland, Australia) in order to determine the most commonly occurring spider families. The most numerous were Theridiidae, which were more strongly associated with cauliflower and poorly associated with cabbage. The Lycosidae and Clubionidae/Miturgidae (formerly in the ‘catch-all’ family Clubionidae) also occurred commonly. Lycosidae (and to a lesser extent Salticidae) had above average abundance in Chinese cabbage and below average abundance in broccoli compared with average abundance for these spider families; Clubionidae/Miturgidae had above average abundance in cauliflower. Laboratory studies were then conducted to explore the predatory capacity of these three most commonly occurring spider families. All three were capable of feeding on larvae of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus), and cabbage cluster caterpillar, Crocidolomia pavonana (Fabricius), under laboratory conditions. Theridiidae, which are thought to prey on small pests such as leafhoppers and aphids, were able to successfully attack larvae up to five times their body size. Predation rates varied from an average of 1.7 (SE = 0.47) (1.6 control corrected) larvae consumed over a 24 h period in the case of the Theridiidae, to 3.3 (SE = 0.60) larvae for the Clubionidae/Miturgidae.