Biology and host range of Ophiomyia camarae Spencer (Diptera: Agromyzidae), a potential biocontrol agent for Lantana spp. (Verbenaceae) in Australia

The life history and host range of the herringbone leaf-mining fly Ophiomyia camarae, a potential biological control agent for Lantana spp., were investigated. Eggs were deposited singly on the underside of leaves. Although several eggs can be laid on a single leaf and a maximum of three individual mines were seen on a single leaf, only one pupa per leaf ever developed. The generation time (egg to adult) was about 38 days. Females (mean 14 days) lived longer than males (mean 9 days) and produced about 61 mines. Oviposition and larval development occurred on all five lantana phenotypes tested. Eleven plant species representing six families were tested to determine the host range. Oviposition and larval development occurred on only lantana and another nonnative plant Lippia alba (Verbenaceae), with both species supporting populations over several generations. A CLIMEX model showed that most of the coastal areas of eastern Australia south to 30°16' S (Coffs Harbour) would be suitable for O. camarae. O. camarae was approved for release in Australia in October 2007 and mines have been observed on plants at numerous field sites along the coast following releases.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

Towards better management of Australia’s shark fishery: genetic analyses reveal unexpected ratios of cryptic blacktip species Carcharhinus tilstoni and C. limbatus

The common blacktip shark (Carcharhinus limbatus) and the Australian blacktip shark (C. tilstoni) are morphologically similar species that co-occur in subtropical and tropical Australia. In striking contrast to what has been previously reported, we demonstrate that the common blacktip shark is not rare in northern Australia but occurs in approximately equal frequencies with the Australian blacktip shark. Management of shark resources in northern Australia needs to take account of this new information. Species identification was performed using nucleotide sequences of the control, NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI) regions in the mitochondrial genome. The proportion of overall genetic variation (FST) between the two species was small (0.042, P < 0.01) based on allele frequencies at five microsatellite loci. We confirm that a third blacktip species (C. amblyrhynchoides, graceful shark) is closely related to C. tilstoni and C. limbatus and can be distinguished from them on the basis of mtDNA sequences from two gene regions. The Australian blacktip shark (C. tilstoni) was not encountered among 20 samples from central Indonesia that were later confirmed to be common blacktip and graceful sharks. Fisheries regulators urgently need new information on life history, population structure and morphological characters for species identification of blacktip shark species in Australia.

Spatial subdivision among assemblages of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson (Pisces: Scombridae) across northern Australia: implications for fisheries management

Aim: This study investigated the use of stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of narrow-barred Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, as indicators of population structure across Australia. Location: Samples were collected from 25 locations extending from the lower west coast of Western Australia (30°), across northern Australian waters, and to the east coast of Australia (18°) covering a coastline length of approximately 9500 km, including samples from Indonesia. Methods: The stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of S. commerson were analysed using standard mass spectrometric techniques. The isotope ratios across northern Australian subregions were subjected to an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to define subregions. Isotope ratios within each of the subregions were compared to assess population structure across Australia. Results: Cluster analysis separated samples into four subregions: central Western Australia, north Western Australia, northern Australia and the Gulf of Carpentaria and eastern Australia. Isotope signatures for fish from a number of sampling sites from across Australia and Indonesia were significantly different, indicating population separation. No significant differences were found in otolith isotope ratios between sampling times (no temporal variation). Main conclusions: Significant differences in the isotopic signatures of S. commerson demonstrate that there is unlikely to be any substantial movement of fish among these spatially discrete adult assemblages. The lack of temporal variation among otolith isotope ratios indicates that S. commerson populations do not undergo longshore spatial shifts in distribution during their life history. The temporal persistence of spatially explicit stable isotopic signatures indicates that, at these spatial scales, the population units sampled comprise functionally distinct management units or separate ‘stocks’ for many of the purposes of fisheries management. The spatial subdivision evident among populations of S. commerson across northern and western Australia indicates that it may be advantageous to consider S. commerson population dynamics and fisheries management from a metapopulation perspective (at least at the regional level).

Determination of management units for grey mackerel fisheries in northern Australia.

The requirement for Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australian jurisdictions to ensure sustainable harvest of fish resources and their optimal use relies on robust information on the resource status. For grey mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus) fisheries, each of these jurisdictions has their own management regime in their corresponding waters. The lack of information on stock structure of grey mackerel, however, means that the appropriate spatial scale of management is not known. As well, fishers require assurance of future sustainability to encourage investment and long-term involvement in a fishery that supplies lucrative overseas markets. These management and fisher-unfriendly circumstances must be viewed in the context of recent 3-fold increases in catches of grey mackerel along the Queensland east coast, combined with significant and increasing catches in other parts of the species' northern Australian range. Establishing the stock structure of grey mackerel would also immensely improve the relevance of resource assessments for fishery management of grey mackerel across northern Australia. This highlighted the urgent need for stock structure information for this species. The impetus for this project came from the strategic recommendations of the FRDC review by Ward and Rogers (2003), "Northern mackerel (Scombridae: Scomberomorus): current and future research needs" (Project No. 2002/096), which promoted the urgency for information on the stock structure of grey mackerel. In following these recommendations this project adopted a multi-technique and phased sampling approach as carried out by Buckworth et al (2007), who examined the stock structure of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, across northern Australia. The project objectives were to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel across their northern Australian range, and use this information to define management units and their appropriate spatial scales. We used multiple techniques concurrently to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel. These techniques were: genetic analyses (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite DNA), otolith (ear bones) isotope ratios, parasite abundances, and growth parameters. The advantage of using this type of multi-technique approach was that each of the different methods is informative about the fish’s life history at different spatial and temporal scales. Genetics can inform about the evolutionary patterns as well as rates of mixing of fish from adjacent areas, while parasites and otolith microchemistry are directly influenced by the environment and so will inform about the patterns of movement during the fishes lifetime. Growth patterns are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Due to these differences the use of these techniques concurrently increases the likelihood of detecting different stocks where they exist. We adopted a phased sampling approach whereby sampling was carried out at broad spatial scales in the first year: east coast, eastern Gulf of Carpentaria (GoC), western GoC, and the NW Northern Territory (NW NT). By comparing the fish samples from each of these locations, and using each of the techniques, we tested the null hypothesis that grey mackerel were comprised of a single homogeneous population across northern Australia. Having rejected the null hypothesis we re-sampled the 1st year locations to test for temporal stability in stock structure, and to assess stock structure at finer spatial scales. This included increased spatial coverage on the east coast, the GoC, and WA. From genetic approaches we determined that there at least four genetic stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia: WA, NW NT (Timor/Arafura), the GoC and the east Grey mackerel management units in northern Australia ix coast. All markers revealed concordant patterns showing WA and NW NT to be clearly divergent stocks. The mtDNA D-loop fragment appeared to have more power to resolve stock boundaries because it was able to show that the GoC and east coast QLD stocks were genetically differentiated. Patterns of stock structure on a finer scale, or where stock boundaries are located, were less clear. From otolith stable isotope analyses four major groups of S. semifasciatus were identified: WA, NT/GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Differences in the isotopic composition of whole otoliths indicate that these groups must have spent their life history in different locations. The magnitude of the difference between the groups suggests a prolonged separation period at least equal to the fish’s life span. The parasite abundance analyses, although did not include samples from WA, suggest the existence of at least four stocks of grey mackerel in northern Australia: NW NT, the GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Grey mackerel parasite fauna on the east coast suggests a separation somewhere between Townsville and Mackay. The NW NT region also appears to comprise a separate stock while within the GoC there exists a high degree of variability in parasite faunas among the regions sampled. This may be due to 1. natural variation within the GoC and there is one grey mackerel stock, or 2. the existence of multiple localised adult sub-stocks (metapopulations) within the GoC. Growth parameter comparisons were only possible from four major locations and identified the NW NT, the GoC, and the east coast as having different population growth characteristics. Through the use of multiple techniques, and by integrating the results from each, we were able to determine that there exist at least five stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia, with some likelihood of additional stock structuring within the GoC. The major management units determined from this study therefore were Western Australia, NW Northern Territory (Timor/Arafura), the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern east Queensland coast and central east Queensland coast. The management implications of these results indicate the possible need for management of grey mackerel fisheries in Australia to be carried out on regional scales finer than are currently in place. In some regions the spatial scales of management might continue as is currently (e.g. WA), while in other regions, such as the GoC and the east coast, managers should at least monitor fisheries on a more local scale dictated by fishing effort and assess accordingly. Stock assessments should also consider the stock divisions identified, particularly on the east coast and for the GoC, and use life history parameters particular to each stock. We also emphasise that where we have not identified different stocks does not preclude the possibility of the occurrence of further stock division. Further, this study did not, nor did it set out to, assess the status of each of the stocks identified. This we identify as a high priority action for research and development of grey mackerel fisheries, as well as a management strategy evaluation that incorporates the conclusions of this work. Until such time that these priorities are addressed, management of grey mackerel fisheries should be cognisant of these uncertainties, particularly for the GoC and the Queensland east coast.

Stock structure of exploited shark species in north-eastern Australia

The project has provided management and other stakeholders with information necessary to make informed decisions about the management of four of the key exploited shark species caught in the Queensland inshore net fishery and northern New South Wales line fishery. The project has determined that spatial management of milk sharks within Queensland, and scalloped hammerhead, common black tip and Australian black tip sharks within Queensland and New South Wales is appropriate. The project has determined that both black tip shark species are likely to require co-operative management arrangements between Queensland and New South Wales. For scalloped hammerheads separate stocks between the two jurisdictions were identified from the fisheriesdependent samples, however genetic exchange across borders is likely to be facilitated by movement of adult females and perhaps larger males to a lesser extent. This information will greatly assist compliance with the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) for shark fisheries in north-eastern Australia by providing the necessary basis for robust assessment of the status of stocks of the study species, thereby helping to deliver their sustainable harvest. It also helps to achieve objectives of the Australian National Shark Plan. The project provides the appropriate spatial framework for future monitoring and assessment of the study species. This is at a time when shark fisheries are receiving close attention from all sectors and when monitoring programs are being implemented, aimed at better assessment of stock status. This project has provided the crucial information for developing an appropriate monitoring design as well as the necessary basis for making statements about stock status. The project has addressed research priorities identified by the Queensland Fisheries Research Advisory Board, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Queensland Fisheries. Previously management has assumed a single stock for each species on the east coast of Queensland, and management of shark fisheries in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland has been independent of one another. The project has been able to enhance and develop links between research, management and industry. Strong positive relationships with commercial fishers were crucial in the collection of samples throughout the study area and fisheries managers were part of the project team throughout the study period. During the project the study area was extended to include both Queensland and NSW waters, creating mutualistic and positive links between the States’ research and management agencies. Extension of project results included management representatives from NSW and Queensland, as well as the Northern Territory where similar shark fisheries operate and similar species are targeted. The project was able to provide significant human capital development opportunities providing considerable value to the project outcomes. Use of vertebral microchemistry and life history characteristics as stock determination methods provided material for two PhD students based at James Cook University: Ron Schroeder, vertebral chemistry; and Alastair Harry, life history characteristic. The project has developed novel research methods that have great capacity for future application, including: • Development of a simple and rapid genetic diagnostic tool (RT-HRM-PCR assay) for differentiating among the black tip shark species, for which no simple morphological identifier exists; and • Development of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) methods for analysing and interpreting microchemical composition of shark vertebrae. The study has provided further confirmation of the effectiveness of using a holistic approach in stock structure studies and justifies investment into such studies.

Biology, Management and Genetic Stock Structure of Mangrove Jack, (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) in Australia.

This project has contributed to the ecologically sustainable management of mangrove jack in Australia by providing comprehensive information on its biology, habitat requirements, population parameters and stock structure. Specifically, the project has resulted in an enhanced understanding of the life history of Australian mangrove jack, the levels of exploitation in its local fishery and the likely existence of a single genetic stock throughout Queensland.

Reproductive strategies of two invasive tilapia species Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae in northern Australia

The reproductive biology of two invasive tilapia species, Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae, resident in freshwater habitats in north-eastern Australia was investigated. Oreochromis mossambicus exhibited plasticity in some of its life-history characteristics that enhanced its ability to occupy a range of habitats. These included a shallow, weed-choked, freshwater coastal drain that was subject to temperature and dissolved oxygen extremes and water-level fluctuations to cooler, relatively high-altitude impoundments. Adaptations to harsher conditions included a decreased total length (LT) and age ( A) at 50% maturity (m50), short somatic growth intervals, early maturation and higher relative fecundities. Potential fecundity in both species was relatively low, but parental care ensured high survival rates of both eggs and larvae. No significant difference in the relative fecundity of T. mariae populations in a large impoundment and a coastal river was found, but there were significant differences in relative fecundities between several of the O. mossambicus populations sampled. Total length ( LT) and age at 50% maturity of O. mossambicus populations varied considerably depending on habitat. The LTm50 and Am50 values for male and female O. mossambicus in a large impoundment were considerably greater than for those resident in a small coastal drain. Monthly gonad developmental stages and gonado-somatic indices suggested that in coastal areas, spawning of O. mossambicus and T. mariae occurred throughout most of the year while in cooler, high-altitude impoundments, spawning peaked in the warmer, summer months. The contribution these reproductive characteristics make to the success of both species as colonizers is discussed in the context of future control and management options for tilapia incursions in Australia.

Modeling population growth and site specific control of the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) under differing fire regimes

It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.

Parasites as indicators of movement and population connectivity of a non-diadromous, tropical estuarine teleost: king threadfin Polydactylus macrochir

Temporal and spatial patterns in parasite assemblages were examined to evaluate the degree of movement and connectivity of post-recruitment life-history stages of a large, non-diadromous tropical estuarine teleost, king threadfin Polydactylus macrochir, collected from 18 locations across northern Australia. Ten parasites types (juvenile stages of two nematodes and seven cestodes, and adults of an acanthocephalan) were deemed to be suitable for use as biological tags, in that they were considered to have a long residence time in the fish, were relatively easy to find and were morphologically very different to each other which aided discrimination. Univariate and discriminant function analysis of these parasites revealed little difference in temporal replicates collected from five locations, suggesting that the parasite communities were stable over the timeframes explored. Univariate, discriminant function, and BrayCurtis similarity analyses indicated significant spatial heterogeneity, with BrayCurtis classification accuracies ranging from 55 to 100% for locations in north-western and northern Australia, 24 to 88% in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and 39 to 88% on the east coast of Queensland. Few differences were observed among locations separated by <200 km. The observed patterns of parasite infection are in agreement with concurrent studies of movement and connectivity of P. macrochir in that they indicate a complex population structure across northern Australia. These results should be considered when reviewing the management arrangements for this species.

A review of the biology, ecology, distribution and control of Mozambique tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters 1852) (Pisces: Cichlidae) with particular emphasis on invasive Australian populations

Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters 1852) are native to the eastward flowing rivers of central and southern Africa but from the early 1930s they have been widely distributed around the world for aquaculture and for biological control of weeds and insects. While O. mossambicus are now not commonly used as an aquaculture species, the biological traits that made them a popular culture species including tolerance to wide ranging ecological conditions, generalist dietary requirements and rapid reproduction with maternal care have also made them a 'model' invader. Self-sustaining populations now exist in almost every region to which they have been imported. In Australia, since their introduction in the 1970s, O. mossambicus have become established in catchments along the east and west coasts and have the potential to colonise other adjacent drainages. It is thought that intentional translocations are likely to be the most significant factor in their spread in Australia. The ecological and physical tolerances and preferences, reproductive behaviour, hybridization and the high degree of plasticity in the life history traits of O. mossambicus are reviewed. Impacts of O. mossambicus on natural ecosystems including competitive displacement of native species, habitat alteration, predation and as a vector in the spread of diseases are discussed. Potential methods for eradicating or controlling invasive populations of O. mossambicus including physical removal, piscicides, screens, environmental management and genetic technologies are outlined.

Patterns of seed bank and size asymmetry of plant growth across varying sites in the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae)

Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Australia and worldwide, but little is known about connections among components of its life history. We document over a 3-year period, the links between L. camara seed-bank dynamics and its above-ground growth, including size asymmetry in four land-use types (a farm, a hoop pine plantation and two open eucalypt forests) invaded by the weed near Brisbane, Queensland Australia. Seed-bank populations varied appreciably across sites and in response to rainfall and control measures, and they were higher (~1,000 seeds/m2) when annual rainfall was 15-30 % below the long-term yearly average. Fire reduced seed-bank populations but not the proportion germinating (6-8 %). Nearly a quarter of fresh seeds remain germinable after 3 years of soil burial. For small seedlings (<10 cm high), the expected trade-offs in two life-history traits-survival and growth-did not apply; rather the observed positive association between these two traits, coupled with a persistent seed-bank population could contribute to the invasiveness of the plant. Relationships between absolute growth rate and initial plant size (crown volume) were positively linear, suggesting that most populations are still at varying stages of the exponential phase of the sigmoid growth; this trend also suggests that at most sites and despite increasing stand density and limiting environmental resources of light and soil moisture, lantana growth is inversely size asymmetric. From the observed changes in measures of plant size inequality, asymmetric competition appeared limited in all the infestations surveyed. © 2013 Crown Copyright as represented by: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australia.

Inheritance and relative dominance, expressed as toxicity response and delayed development, of phosphine resistance in immature stages of Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae)

Fumigation of stored grain with phosphine (PH 3) is used widely to control the lesser grain borer Rhyzopertha dominica. However, development of high level resistance to phosphine in this species threatens control. Effective resistance management relies on knowledge of the expression of resistance in relation to dosage at all life stages. Therefore, we determined the mode of inheritance of phosphine resistance and strength of the resistance phenotype at each developmental stage. We achieved this by comparing mortality and developmental delay between a strongly resistant strain (R-strain), a susceptible strain (S-strain) and their F 1 progenies. Resistance was a maternally inherited, semi-dominant trait in the egg stage but was inherited as an autosomal, incompletely recessive trait in larvae and pupae. The rank order of developmental tolerance in both the sensitive and resistant strains was eggs > pupae > larvae. Comparison of published values for the response of adult R. dominica relative to our results from immature stages reveals that the adult stage of the S-strain is more sensitive to phosphine than are larvae. This situation is reversed in the R-strain as the adult stage is much more resistant to phosphine than even the most tolerant immature stage. Phosphine resistance factors at LC 50 were eggs 400×, larvae 87× and pupae 181× with respect to reference susceptible strain (S-strain) adults indicating that tolerance conferred by a particular immature stage neither strongly nor reliably interacts with the genetic resistance element. Developmental delay relative to unfumigated control insects was observed in 93% of resistant pupae, 86% of resistant larvae and 41% of resistant eggs. Increased delay in development and the toxicity response to phosphine exposure were both incompletely recessive. We show that resistance to phosphine has pleiotropic effects and that the expression of these effects varies with genotype and throughout the life history of the insect. © 2012.

Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia

Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.