Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

Sirex woodwasp range expansion in Australia: performance and parasitism on two commercial pine species

Sirex woodwasp was detected in Queensland in 2009 and rapidly established in softwood plantations (Pinus radiata and P. taeda) in southern border regions. Biocontrol inoculations of Deladenus siricidicola began soon after, and adults were monitored to assess the success of the programme. Wasp size, sex ratios, emergence phenology and nematode parasitism rates were recorded, along with the assessment of wild-caught females. Patterns varied within and among seasons, but overall, P. taeda appeared to be a less suitable host than P. radiata, producing smaller adults, lower fat body content and fewer females. Sirex emerging from P. taeda also showed lower levels of nematode parasitism, possibly due to interactions with the more abundant blue-stain fungus in this host. Sirex adults generally emerged between November and March, with distinct peaks in January and March, separated by a marked drop in emergence in early February. Temperature provided the best correlate of seasonal emergence, with fortnights with higher mean minimum temperatures having higher numbers of Sirex emerging. This has implications for the anticipated northward spread of Sirex into sub-tropical coastal plantation regions. Following four seasons of inundative release of nematodes in Queensland, parasitism rates remain low and have resulted in only partial sterilization of infected females.