Applications of CLIMEX modelling leading to improved biological control

Wilmot Senaratne, Bill Palmer and Bob Sutherst recently published their paper 'Applications of CLIMEX modelling leading to improved biological control' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. They looked at three examples where modern climate matching techniques using computer software produces decisions and results than might happen using previous techniques such as climadiagrams. Assessment of climatic suitability is important at various stages of a biological control project; from initial foreign exploration, to risk assessment in preparation for the release of a particular agent, through to selection of release sites that maximise the agent´s chances of initial establishment. It is now also necessary to predict potential future distributions of both target weeds and agents under climate change.

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.

Improving the agent selection, release and evaluation process: the role of bioclimatic modelling

The value of CLIMEX models to inform biocontrol programs was assessed, including predicting the potential distribution of biocontrol agents and their subsequent population dynamics, using bioclimatic models for the weed Parkinsonia aculeata, two Lantana camara biocontrol agents, and five Mimosa pigra biocontrol agents. The results showed the contribution of data types to CLIMEX models and the capacity of these models to inform and improve the selection, release and post release evaluation of biocontrol agents. Foremost among these was the quality of spatial and temporal information as well as the extent to which overseas range data samples the species’ climatic envelope. Post hoc evaluation and refinement of these models requires improved long-term monitoring of introduced agents and their dynamics at well selected study sites. The authors described the findings of these case studies, highlighted their implications, and considered how to incorporate models effectively into biocontrol programs.

Modelling management options for management of feral camels in central Australia

Camels (Camelus dromedarius) were introduced into Australia from the 1840s to the early 1900s for transport and hauling cargo in arid regions. Feral populations remained small until the 1930s when many were released after they were superseded for transport by trucks and rail. Although camels have a relatively slow population growth (<10% per annum), the population has not reached carrying capacity and therefore, requires control to reduce the increasing impacts on central Australia. The model developed for the Northern Territory suggested that currently there are insufficient numbers being removed. The model also investigated which control options would have greatest impacts and found harvesting to be most important. The extent to which commercial harvesting can feasibly reduce camel populations requires further analysis. Due to the wide dispersal of camels in Australia, fertility control, even if technically feasible, will not target adults, the most important age class of the population. Habitat preferences were also investigated in the model but more validation is required as the population is still under range expansion. Immediate action is suggested to alleviate future costs as camel populations and their impacts rise.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Use of CLIMEX modelling to identify prospective areas for exploration to find new biological control agents for prickly acacia

Selection of biocontrol agents that are adapted to the climates in areas of intended release demands a thorough analysis of the climates of the source and release sites. We present a case study that demonstrates how use of the CLIMEX software can improve decision making in relation to the identification of prospective areas for exploration for agents to control the woody weed, prickly acacia Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in the arid areas of north Queensland.

Analysis and Modelling of the Effects of Water Stress on Maize Growth and Yield in Dryland Conditions.

It is essential to provide experimental evidence and reliable predictions of the effects of water stress on crop production in the drier, less predictable environments. A field experiment undertaken in southeast Queensland, Australia with three water regimes (fully irrigated, rainfed and irrigated until late canopy expansion followed by rainfed) was used to compare effects of water stress on crop production in two maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars (Pioneer 34N43 and Pioneer 31H50). Water stress affected growth and yield more in Pioneer 34N43 than in Pioneer 31H50. A crop model APSIM-Maize, after having been calibrated for the two cultivars, was used to simulate maize growth and development under water stress. The predictions on leaf area index (LAI) dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield under rain fed and irrigated followed by rain fed treatments was reasonable, indicating that stress indices used by APSIM-Maize produced appropriate adjustments to crop growth and development in response to water stress. This study shows that Pioneer 31H50 is less sensitive to water stress and thus a preferred cultivar in dryland conditions, and that it is feasible to provide sound predictions and risk assessment for crop production in drier, more variable conditions using the APSIM-Maize model.

Modelling the distribution and relative abundance of feral camels in the Northern Territory using count data

The objectives of this study were to predict the potential distribution, relative abundance and probability of habitat use by feral camels in southern Northern Territory. Aerial survey data were used to model habitat association. The characteristics of ‘used’ (where camels were observed) v. ‘unused’ (pseudo-absence) sites were compared. Habitat association and abundance were modelled using generalised additive model (GAM) methods. The models predicted habitat suitability and the relative abundance of camels in southern Northern Territory. The habitat suitability maps derived in the present study indicate that camels have suitable habitat in most areas of southern Northern Territory. The index of abundance model identified areas of relatively high camel abundance. Identifying preferred habitats and areas of high abundance can help focus control efforts.

Best use modelling for sustainable Australia sports field surfaces

The Best Use Modelling for Sustainable Australian Sports Field Surfaces project has achieved significant success. The project has attracted participation from councils throughout Australia, with in excess of 300 sports fields evaluated from 18 councils to date. An important project component is the derivation of a recommended standard procedure for specifying the performance of playing surfaces. An associated step has been to establish recommended playing surface performance standards for community level sports fields. The derived modelling also provides information on the expected usage and associated costs of different sports surface development options. This is expected to assist the Australian turf production industry through demonstrating to councils that cost effective natural turf options exist that can meet higher usage expectation (as a viable alternative to synthetic turf). A web-accessed data base system will be made available to councils from January 2010 on (reference to www.passturf.com). This system will enable participating councils to record and analyse field performance over time. The system is considered world-leading, and will help keep the Australian parks industry to the international forefront. Tools developed as part of the project offer councils the opportunity to internally assess the performance of their current sports field provision, to identify any deficiencies and to determine the best corrective measure if any deficiency is identified. This is expected to offer community benefits to both sports facility providers and facility user groups. In turn this will aid the provision of affordable community access to safe and good quality playing surfaces. Tools and associated information material will be made available to councils throughout Australia by the end of this year, via the Parks and Leisure Aust. web site. The Best Use Modelling Project is work in progress. On-going input will be needed to ensure the web-accessed database software is as user friendly as possible, new performance testing data will need to be inputted, and tools provided to participating councils updated. Through the support of HAL there is now a well-structured, nationally-supported system in place for benchmarking playing surfaces and for assisting councils to optimise their resource allocation to sports field upgrade or maintenance work.

Modelling the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern Australia.

The nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency (yield per unit nitrogen uptake) and water use efficiency (yield per unit evapotranspiration) is widespread and results from well established, multiple effects of nitrogen availability on the water, carbon and nitrogen economy of crops. Here we used a crop model (APSIM) to simulate the yield, evapotranspiration, soil evaporation and nitrogen uptake of wheat, and analysed yield responses to water, nitrogen and climate using a framework analogous to the rate-duration model of determinate growth. The relationship between modelled grain yield (Y) and evapotranspiration (ET) was fitted to a linear-plateau function to derive three parameters: maximum yield (Ymax), the ET break-point when yield reaches its maximum (ET#), and the rate of yield response in the linear phase ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET). Against this framework, we tested the hypothesis that nitrogen deficit reduces maximum yield by reducing both the rate ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET) and the range of yield response to evapotranspiration, i.e. ET# - Es, where Es is modelled median soil evaporation. Modelled data reproduced the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency in a transect from Horsham (36°S) to Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Increasing nitrogen supply from 50 to 250 kg N ha-1 reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 29 to 12 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 15 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Emerald. The same increment in nitrogen supply reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 30 to 25 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 25 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Horsham. Maximum yield ranged from 0.9 to 6.4 t ha-1. Consistent with our working hypothesis, reductions in maximum yield with nitrogen deficit were associated with both reduction in the rate of yield response to ET and compression of the range of yield response to ET. Against the notion of managing crops to maximise water use efficiency in low rainfall environments, we emphasise the trade-off between water use efficiency and nitrogen utilisation efficiency, particularly under conditions of high nitrogen-to-grain price ratio. The rate-range framework to characterise the relationship between yield and evapotranspiration is useful to capture this trade-off as the parameters were responsive to both nitrogen supply and climatic factors.

Characterisation of wood properties and transverse anatomy for vacuum drying modelling of commercially important Australian hardwood species.

Characterisation and investigation of a number of key wood properties, critical for further modelling work, has been achieved. The key results were: • Morphological characterisation, in terms of fibre cell wall thickness and porosity, was completed. A clear difference in fibre porosity, size, wall thickness and orientation was evident between species. Results were consistent with published data for other species. • Viscoelastic properties of wood were shown to differ greatly between species and in the radial and tangential directions, largely due to anatomical and chemical variations. Consistent with published data, the radial direction shows higher stiffness, internal friction and glass transition temperature than the tangential directions. The loss of stiffness over the measured temperature range was greater in the tangential direction than the radial direction. Due to time dependant molecular relaxation, the storage modulus and glass transition temperature decreased with decreasing test frequency, approaching an asymptotic limit. Thus the viscoelastic properties measured at lower frequencies are more representative of static material. • Dynamic interactions between relative humidity, moisture content and shrinkage of four Australian hardwood timbers can be accurately monitored on micro-samples using a specialised experimental device developed by AgroParisTech – ENGREF. The device generated shrinkage data that varied between species but were consistent (repeatable) within a species. Collapse shrinkage was clearly evident with this method for Eucalyptus obliqua, but not with other species, consistent with industrial seasoning experience. To characterise the wood-water relations of this species, free of collapse, thinner sample sections (in the R-T plane) should be used.

Environment characterization as an aid to wheat improvement: interpreting genotype-environment interactions by modelling water-deficit patterns in North-Eastern Australia.

Genotype-environment interactions (GEI) limit genetic gain for complex traits such as tolerance to drought. Characterization of the crop environment is an important step in understanding GEI. A modelling approach is proposed here to characterize broadly (large geographic area, long-term period) and locally (field experiment) drought-related environmental stresses, which enables breeders to analyse their experimental trials with regard to the broad population of environments that they target. Water-deficit patterns experienced by wheat crops were determined for drought-prone north-eastern Australia, using the APSIM crop model to account for the interactions of crops with their environment (e.g. feedback of plant growth on water depletion). Simulations based on more than 100 years of historical climate data were conducted for representative locations, soils, and management systems, for a check cultivar, Hartog. The three main environment types identified differed in their patterns of simulated water stress around flowering and during grain-filling. Over the entire region, the terminal drought-stress pattern was most common (50% of production environments) followed by a flowering stress (24%), although the frequencies of occurrence of the three types varied greatly across regions, years, and management. This environment classification was applied to 16 trials relevant to late stages testing of a breeding programme. The incorporation of the independently-determined environment types in a statistical analysis assisted interpretation of the GEI for yield among the 18 representative genotypes by reducing the relative effect of GEI compared with genotypic variance, and helped to identify opportunities to improve breeding and germplasm-testing strategies for this region.

DEEDI Paddock Modelling Program

The project objective is to undertake paddock modelling across the Great Barrier Reef catchments to determine magnitude of sediment and particulate nutrient reductions from agricultural lands to GBR lagoon achieved over 5 years. Discussions, development and design of a plan (including a monitoring, evaluation, reporting and improvement plan) for GRASP paddock modelling will be undertaken to determine changes in water quality as a result of land management practices adopted by pastoralists. Biophysical outputs will be derived from range of land types, starting conditions and grazing management strategies. GRASP derived outputs will then be incorporated into water models to determine sediment and nutrient estimates for the catchments.

Macadamia Modelling Scoping Study

Investigate the feasibility and utility of a macadamia physiological model.

Developing Queensland 3D Tropical Fruits and Nuts modelling capabilities

Development of 3D functional structural plant models for macadamias and other tropical fruit and nuts.