Management Guidelines for New Warm-Season Grasses in Australia

After more than 30 years in which ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf’ were the only greens-quality varieties available, the choice for golf courses and bowls clubs in northern Australia has been expanded to include six new Cynodon hybrids [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers x Cynodon transvaalensis Burtt-Davy]. Five of these – ‘Champion Dwarf’ (Texas), ‘MS-Supreme’ (Mississippi), FloraDwarf™ (Florida), ‘TifEagle’ (Georgia), MiniVerde™ (Arizona) - are from US breeding programs, while the sixth, ‘TL2’ (marketed as Novotek™) was selected in north Queensland. The finer, denser and lower growing habit of the “ultradwarf” cultivars allows very low mowing heights (e.g. 2.5 mm) to be imposed, resulting in denser and smoother putting and bowls surfaces. In addition to the Cynodon hybrids, four new greens quality seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum O. Swartz) cultivars including ‘Sea Isle 2000’, Sea Isle Supreme™, Velvetene™ and Sea Dwarf™ (where tolerance of salty water is required) expands the range of choices for greens in difficult environments. The project was developed to determine (a) the appropriate choice of cultivar for different environments and budgets, and (b) best management practices for the new cultivars which differ from the Cynodon hybrid industry standards ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf’. Management practices, particularly fertilising, mowing heights and frequency, and thatch control were investigated to determine optimum management inputs and provide high quality playing surfaces with the new grasses. To enable effective trialling of these new and old cultivars it was essential to have a number of regional sites participating in the study. Drought and financial hardship of many clubs presented an initial setback with numerous clubs wanting to be involved in the study but were unable to commit due to their financial position at the time. The study was fortunate to have seven regional sites from Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia volunteer to be involved in the study which would add to the results being collected at the centralised test facility being constructed at DEEDI’s Redlands Research Station. The major research findings acquired from the eight trial sites included: • All of the new second generation “ultradwarf” couchgrasses tend to produce a large amount of thatch with MiniVerde™ being the greatest thatch producer, particularly compared to ‘Tifdwarf’ and ‘Tifgreen’. The maintenance of the new Cynodon hybrids will require a program of regular dethatching/grooming as well as regular light dustings of sand. Thatch prevention should begin 3 to 4 weeks after planting a new “ultradwarf” couchgrass green, with an emphasis on prevention rather than control. • The “ultradwarfs” produced faster green speeds than the current industry standards ‘Tifgreen’ and ‘Tifdwarf’. However, all Cynodon hybrids were considerably faster than the seashore paspalums (e.g. comparable to the speed diference of Bentgrass and couchgrass) under trial conditions. Green speed was fastest being cut at 3.5 mm and rolled (compared to 3.5 mm cut, no roll and 2.7 mm cut, no roll). • All trial sites reported the occurrence of disease in the Cynodon hybrids with the main incidence of disease occurring during the dormancy period (autumn and winter). The main disease issue reported was “patch diseases” which includes both Gaumannomyces and Rhizoctonia species. There was differences in the severity of the disease between cultivars, however, the severity of the disease was not consistent between cultivars and is largely attributed to an environment (location) effect. In terms of managing the occurrence of disease, the incidence of disease is less severe where there is a higher fertility rate (about 3 kgN/100m2/year) or a preventitatve fungicide program is adopted. • Cynodon hybrid and seashore paspalum cultivars maintained an acceptable to ideal surface being cut between 2.7 mm and 5.0 mm. “Ultradwarf” cultivars can tolerate mowing heights as low as 2.5 mm for short periods but places the plant under high levels of stress. Greens being maintained at a continually lower cutting height (e.g. 2.7 mm) of both species is achievable, but would need to be cut daily for best results. Seashore paspalums performed best when cut at a height of between 2.7 mm and 3.0 mm. If a lower cutting height is adopted, regular and repeated mowings are required to reduce scalping and produce a smooth surface. • At this point in time the optimum rate of nitrogen (N) for the Cynodon hybrids is 3 kg/100m2/year and while the seashore paspalums is 2 to 3 kg/100m2/year. • Dormancy occurred for all Cynodon and seashore paspalum culitvars from north in Brisbane (QLD) to south in Mornington Peninsula (VIC) and west to Novar Gardens (SA). Cynodon and Paspalum growth in both Victoria and South Australia was less favourable as a result of the cooler climates. • After combining the data collected from all eight sites, the results indicated that there can be variation (e.g. turfgrass quality, colour, disease resistance, performace) depending on the site and climatic conditions. Such evidence highlights the need to undertake genotype by environment (G x E) studies on new and old cultivars prior to conversion or establishment. • For a club looking to select either a Cynodon hybrid or seashore paspalum cultivar for use at their club they need to: - Review the research data. - Look at trial plots. - Inspect greens in play that have the new grasses. - Select 2 to 3 cultivars that are considered to be the better types. - Establish them in large (large enough to putt on) plots/nursery/practice putter. Ideally the area should be subjected to wear. - Maintain them exactly as they would be on the golf course/lawn bowls green. This is a critical aspect. Regular mowing, fertilising etc. is essential. - Assess them over at least 2 to 3 years. - Make a selection and establish it in a playing green so that it is subjected to typical wear.

Background to the approved beneficial Cynodon spp. vegetative cultivars within Australia

The growth of the Australian turfgrass industry has significantly expanded over recent decades. One reason for this occurring has been with development of better suited or higher quality turfgrass cultivars for Australia’s harsh climatic conditions. In recent years drought has widely affected the turfgrass industry and as such, greater drought tolerant C4 grasses such as Cynodon spp. have been used. In 2008, as part of the 24th Australian Turfgrass Conference Proceedings, Peter McMaugh wrote an extensive article on the couch grass breeding history in Australia. This paper contains an extension to his work detailing the current (1950s to 2010) Cynodon species found in Australia. Detailed information has been sourced in relation to the origin and development of the grasses which are suitable for turfgrass use. Such detail provides an interesting picture of the source of proliferation of newer cultivars and how the Australian industry has evolved with the introduction of overseas and Australian selected cultivars. The information adds to the preceding work, including morphological and agronomic attributes and how closely each selection or cultivar is related. The cultivars discussed in this article (listed alphabetically) are derived from one of the four classifications identified by the breeder/author, being (i) Cynodon sp. (although the cultivar contained within the taxa fits best being classified as a Cynodon hybrid), (ii) Cynodon dactylon x C. transvaalensis (Cynodon hybrid), (iii) Cynodon dactylon (green couch) and (iv) Cynodon dactylon x C. magenissii.

Agricultural intensification, priming for persistence and the emergence of Nipah virus: a lethal bat-borne zoonosis

Emerging zoonoses threaten global health, yet the processes by which they emerge are complex and poorly understood. Nipah virus (NiV) is an important threat owing to its broad host and geographical range, high case fatality, potential for human-to-human transmission and lack of effective prevention or therapies. Here, we investigate the origin of the first identified outbreak of NiV encephalitis in Malaysia and Singapore. We analyse data on livestock production from the index site (a commercial pig farm in Malaysia) prior to and during the outbreak, on Malaysian agricultural production, and from surveys of NiV's wildlife reservoir (flying foxes). Our analyses suggest that repeated introduction of NiV from wildlife changed infection dynamics in pigs. Initial viral introduction produced an explosive epizootic that drove itself to extinction but primed the population for enzootic persistence upon reintroduction of the virus. The resultant within-farm persistence permitted regional spread and increased the number of human infections. This study refutes an earlier hypothesis that anomalous El Nino Southern Oscillation-related climatic conditions drove emergence and suggests that priming for persistence drove the emergence of a novel zoonotic pathogen. Thus, we provide empirical evidence for a causative mechanism previously proposed as a precursor to widespread infection with H5N1 avian influenza and other emerging pathogens.

Screening Corymbia populations for resistance to Puccinia psidii

The exotic rust pathogen Puccinia psidii is now widespread along the east coast of Australia from temperate Victoria to tropical far north Queensland, with a current host range exceeding 200 species from 37 myrtaceous genera. To determine the threat P. psidii poses to plantation and native eucalypts, artificial inoculation was used to screen germplasm of spotted gum (Corymbia spp.) for resistance to the biotype of P. psidii that has become established in Australia. The objective was to characterize resistance to P. psidii within the Corymbia species complex so that management strategies for the deployment of germplasm from existing breeding programmes of these spotted gum species could be developed. Symptom development initiated 7 days after inoculation, with resistant and susceptible seedlings identified within all species, provenances and families. Inter- and intraspecific variability in rust resistance was observed among spotted gum species. There was no apparent relationship between climatic conditions at the provenance origin and disease resistance. The heritability estimates for all assessments are moderate to high and indicate a significant level of additive genetic variance for rust resistance within the populations. The results of this study clearly identify potential to select for resistance at the family level within the tested populations. While the potential for P. psidii to detrimentally impact upon Corymbia in the nursery and in young plantations was demonstrated, estimations of the heritability of resistance suggest that efforts to enhance this trait through breeding have reasonable prospects for success.

Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90 ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90 ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

Risk assessment for Puccinia psidii becoming established in South Africa

Puccinia psidii, the causal agent of myrtle rust, was first recorded from Latin America more than 100 years ago. It occurs on many native species of Myrtaceae in Latin America and also infects non-native plantation-grown Eucalyptus species in the region. The pathogen has gradually spread to new areas including Australia and most recently South Africa. The aim of this study was to consider the susceptibility of selected Eucalyptus genotypes, particularly those of interest to South African forestry, to infection by P. psidii. In addition, risk maps were compiled based on suitable climatic conditions and the occurrence of potential susceptible tree species. This made it possible to identify the season when P. psidii would be most likely to infect and to define the geographic areas where the rust disease would be most likely to establish in South Africa. As expected, variation in susceptibility was observed between eucalypt genotypes tested. Importantly, species commonly planted in South Africa show good potential for yielding disease-tolerant material for future planting. Myrtle rust is predicted to be more common in spring and summer. Coastal areas, as well as areas in South Africa with subtropical climates, are more conducive to outbreaks of the pathogen.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90% ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90% ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

Halosulfuron-methyl: A selective herbicide option for the control of the invasive 'Cyperus aromaticus' (Ridley) Mattf. and Kukenth (Navua sedge)

There are currently limited options for the control of the invasive tropical perennial sedge 'Cyperus aromaticus' (Ridley) Mattf. and Kukenth (Navua sedge). The potential for halosulfuron-methyl as a selective herbicide for Navua sedge control in tropical pastures was investigated by undertaking successive field and shade house experiments in North Queensland, Australia. Halosulfuron-methyl and adjuvant rates, and combinations with other herbicides, were examined to identify a herbicide regime that most effectively reduced Navua sedge. Our research indicated that combining halosulfuron- methyl with other herbicides did not improve efficacy for Navua sedge control. We also identified that low rates of halosulfuron-methyl (25 g ha-1 a.i.) were just as effective as higher rates (73 g ha-1 a.i.) at controlling the sedge, and that this control relied on the addition of the adjuvant Bonza at the recommended concentration (1% of the spray volume). Pot trials in the controlled environment of the shade house achieved total mortality under these regimes. Field trials demonstrated more variable results with reductions in Navua sedge ranging between 40-95% at 8-10 weeks after treatment. After this period (16-24 weeks after treatment), regrowth of sedge, either from newly germinated seed, or of small plants protected from initial treatment, indicated sedge populations can rapidly increase to levels similar to pre-application, depending on the location and climatic conditions. Such variable results highlight the need for concerted monitoring of pastures to identify optimal treatment times. Ideally, initial treatment should be done when the sedge is healthy and actively growing, with follow up-treatments applied when new seed heads are produced from regrowth.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

Previous land use and climate influence differences in soil organic carbon following reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species plantings

Reforestation of agricultural land with mixed-species environmental plantings (native trees and shrubs) can contribute to mitigation of climate change through sequestration of carbon. Although soil carbon sequestration following reforestation has been investigated at site- and regional-scales, there are few studies across regions where the impact of a broad range of site conditions and management practices can be assessed. We collated new and existing data on soil organic carbon (SOC, 0–30 cm depth, N = 117 sites) and litter (N = 106 sites) under mixed-species plantings and an agricultural pair or baseline across southern and eastern Australia. Sites covered a range of previous land uses, initial SOC stocks, climatic conditions and management types. Differences in total SOC stocks following reforestation were significant at 52% of sites, with a mean rate of increase of 0.57 ± 0.06 Mg C ha−1 y−1. Increases were largely in the particulate fraction, which increased significantly at 46% of sites compared with increases at 27% of sites for the humus fraction. Although relative increase was highest in the particulate fraction, the humus fraction was the largest proportion of total SOC and so absolute differences in both fractions were similar. Accumulation rates of carbon in litter were 0.39 ± 0.02 Mg C ha−1 y−1, increasing the total (soil + litter) annual rate of carbon sequestration by 68%. Previously-cropped sites accumulated more SOC than previously-grazed sites. The explained variance differed widely among empirical models of differences in SOC stocks following reforestation according to SOC fraction and depth for previously-grazed (R2 = 0.18–0.51) and previously-cropped (R2 = 0.14–0.60) sites. For previously-grazed sites, differences in SOC following reforestation were negatively related to total SOC in the pasture. By comparison, for previously-cropped sites, differences in SOC were positively related to mean annual rainfall. This improved broad-scale understanding of the magnitude and predictors of changes in stocks of soil and litter C following reforestation is valuable for the development of policy on carbon markets and the establishment of future mixed-species environmental plantings.

Use of business analysis in beef businesses to direct management practice change for climate adaptation outcomes

Beef businesses in northern Australia are facing increased pressure to be productive and profitable with challenges such as climate variability and poor financial performance over the past decade. Declining terms of trade, limited recent gains in on-farm productivity, low profit margins under current management systems and current climatic conditions will leave little capacity for businesses to absorb climate change-induced losses. In order to generate a whole-of-business focus towards management change, the Climate Clever Beef project in the Maranoa-Balonne region of Queensland trialled the use of business analysis with beef producers to improve financial literacy, provide a greater understanding of current business performance and initiate changes to current management practices. Demonstration properties were engaged and a systematic approach was used to assess current business performance, evaluate impacts of management changes on the business and to trial practices and promote successful outcomes to the wider industry. Focus was concentrated on improving financial literacy skills, understanding the business’ key performance indicators and modifying practices to improve both business productivity and profitability. To best achieve the desired outcomes, several extension models were employed: the ‘group facilitation/empowerment model’, the ‘individual consultant/mentor model’ and the ‘technology development model’. Providing producers with a whole-of-business approach and using business analysis in conjunction with on-farm trials and various extension methods proved to be a successful way to encourage producers in the region to adopt new practices into their business, in the areas of greatest impact. The areas targeted for development within businesses generally led to improvements in animal performance and grazing land management further improving the prospects for climate resilience.

Effect of seasonal conditions on fleece weight and its components in merino sheep grazing Mitchell grass pasture in North West Queensland

SUMMARY Seasonal conditions in the pre to post natal period and selected periods before and during wool growth were described using climatic measures and estimates of the quality and quantity of pasture on offer derived from a validated pasture production model (GRASP). The variation in greasy and clean fleece weight, yield, staple length, fibre diameter, neck and side wrinkle score of Merinos grazing Mitchell grass in north west Queensland was explained in terms of these pasture and climatic measures and animal characteristics such as reproductive status, age and skin area. Multiple regression equations predicting clean and greasy fleece weight from the proportion of days in the wool growth period that the green pool in the pasture was less than one kg/ha, the percentage utilisation of the pasture, age, reproductive status and skin area of the ewes explained 87% and 79% of the variation respectively. Equations with similar predictors explained 58-85% of the variation of the other components. The inclusion of pasture conditions in the pre to post natal period did not significantly improve the predictions of the animal’s later performance. 22nd Biennial Conference.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.