From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Estimation in a multiplicative mixed model involving a genetic relationship matrix.

Genetic models partitioning additive and non-additive genetic effects for populations tested in replicated multi-environment trials (METs) in a plant breeding program have recently been presented in the literature. For these data, the variance model involves the direct product of a large numerator relationship matrix A, and a complex structure for the genotype by environment interaction effects, generally of a factor analytic (FA) form. With MET data, we expect a high correlation in genotype rankings between environments, leading to non-positive definite covariance matrices. Estimation methods for reduced rank models have been derived for the FA formulation with independent genotypes, and we employ these estimation methods for the more complex case involving the numerator relationship matrix. We examine the performance of differing genetic models for MET data with an embedded pedigree structure, and consider the magnitude of the non-additive variance. The capacity of existing software packages to fit these complex models is largely due to the use of the sparse matrix methodology and the average information algorithm. Here, we present an extension to the standard formulation necessary for estimation with a factor analytic structure across multiple environments.

What drives plant biodiversity in the clay floodplain grasslands of NSW?

An assessment of the relative influences of management and environment on the composition of floodplain grasslands of north-western New South Wales was made using a regional vegetation survey sampling a range of land tenures (e. g. private property, travelling stock routes and nature reserves). A total of 364 taxa belonging to 55 different plant families was recorded. Partitioning of variance with redundancy analysis determined that environmental variables accounted for a greater proportion (61.3%) of the explained variance in species composition than disturbance-related variables (37.6%). Soil type (and fertility), sampling time and rainfall had a strong influence on species composition and there were also east-west variations in composition across the region. Of the disturbance-related variables, cultivation, stocking rate and flooding frequency were all influential. Total, native, forb, shrub and subshrub richness were positively correlated with increasing time since cultivation. Flood frequency was positively correlated with graminoid species richness and was negatively correlated with total and forb species richness. Site species richness was also influenced by environmental variables (e. g. soil type and rainfall). Despite the resilience of these grasslands, some forms of severe disturbance (e. g. several years of cultivation) can result in removal of some dominant perennial grasses (e. g. Astrebla spp.) and an increase in disturbance specialists. A simple heuristic transitional model is proposed that has conceptual thresholds for plant biodiversity status. This knowledge representation may be used to assist in the management of these grasslands by defining four broad levels of community richness and the drivers that change this status.

Comparative performance of Corymbia hybrids and parental species in subtropical Queensland and implications for breeding and deployment.

Eighty six full-sib Corymbia F1 hybrid families (crosses between C. torelliana and four spotted gum taxa: C. citriodora subsp. variegata, C. citriodora subsp. citriodora, C. henryi and C. maculata), were planted in six trials across six disparate sites in south-eastern Queensland to evaluate their productivity and determine their potential utility for plantation forestry. In each trial, the best-growing 20% of hybrid families grew significantly faster (P=0.05) than open-pollinated seedlots of the parent species Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata, ranging from 107% to 181% and 127% to 287% of the height and diameter respectively. Relative performance of hybrid families growing on more than one site displayed consistency in ranking for growth across sites and analysis showed low genotype-by-environment interaction. Heritability estimates based on female and male parents across two sites at age six years for height and diameter at breast height, were high (0.62±0.28 to 0.64±0.35 and 0.31±0.21 to 0.69±0.37 respectively), and low to moderate (0.03±0.04 to 0.33±0.22) for stem straightness, branch size, incidence of ramicorns, and frost and disease resistance traits at ages one to three years. The proportion of dominance variance for height and diameter had reduced to zero by age six years. Based on these promising results, further breeding and pilot-scale family forestry and clonal forestry deployment is being undertaken. These results have also provided insights regarding the choice of a future hybrid breeding strategy.

Inheritance of resistance to root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) in wheat landraces and cultivars from the West Asia and North Africa (WANA) region.

The root-lesion nematode Pratylenchus thornei causes substantial loss to bread wheat production in the northern grain region of Australia and other parts of the world. West Asia and North Africa (WANA) wheat accessions with partial resistance to P. thornei were analysed for mode of inheritance in a half-diallel crossing design of F1 hybrids (10 parents) and F2 populations (7 parents). General combining ability was more important than specific combining ability as indicated by components of variance ratios of 0.93 and 0.95 in diallel ANOVA of the F1 and F2 generations, respectively. General combining ability values of the 'resistant' parents were predictive of the mean nematode numbers of their progeny in crosses with the susceptible Australian cv. Janz at the F1 (R populations showed relatively continuous distributions. Heritability was 0.68 for F2 populations in the half-diallel of resistant parents and 0.82-0.92 for 5 'resistant' parent/Janz doubled-haploid populations (narrow-sense heritability on a line mean basis). The results indicate polygenic inheritance of P. thornei resistance with a minimum of from 2 to 6 genes involved in individual F populations of 5 resistant parents crossed with Janz. Morocco 426 and Iraq 43 appear to be the best of the parents tested for breeding for resistance to P. thornei. None of the P. thornei-resistant WANA accessions was resistant to Pratylenchus neglectus.

Temporal genetic structure patterns in tropical maize populations under reciprocal recurrent selection.

In order to investigate the effect of long term recurrent selection on the pattern of gene diversity, thirty randomly-selected individuals from the progenitors (p) and four selection cycles (C0, C3, C6 and C11) were sampled for DNA analysis from the tropical maize (Zea mays L.) breeding populations, Atherton 1 (AT1) and Atherton 2 (AT2). Fifteen polymorphic Simple Sequence Repeat markers amplified a total of 284 and 257 alleles in AT1 and AT2 populations, respectively. Reductions in the number of alleles were observed at advanced selection cycles. About 11 and 12% of the alleles in AT1 and AT2 populations respectively, were near to fixation. However, a higher number of alleles (37% in AT1 and 33% in AT2) were close to extinction. Fisher's exact test and analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed significant population differentiations. Gene diversity estimates and AMOVA revealed increased genetic differentiations at the expense of loss of heterozygosity. Population differentiations were mainly due to fixation of complementary alleles at a locus in the two breeding populations. The estimates of effective population at an advanced selection cycle were close to the population size predicted by the breeding method.

Environment characterization as an aid to wheat improvement: interpreting genotype-environment interactions by modelling water-deficit patterns in North-Eastern Australia.

Genotype-environment interactions (GEI) limit genetic gain for complex traits such as tolerance to drought. Characterization of the crop environment is an important step in understanding GEI. A modelling approach is proposed here to characterize broadly (large geographic area, long-term period) and locally (field experiment) drought-related environmental stresses, which enables breeders to analyse their experimental trials with regard to the broad population of environments that they target. Water-deficit patterns experienced by wheat crops were determined for drought-prone north-eastern Australia, using the APSIM crop model to account for the interactions of crops with their environment (e.g. feedback of plant growth on water depletion). Simulations based on more than 100 years of historical climate data were conducted for representative locations, soils, and management systems, for a check cultivar, Hartog. The three main environment types identified differed in their patterns of simulated water stress around flowering and during grain-filling. Over the entire region, the terminal drought-stress pattern was most common (50% of production environments) followed by a flowering stress (24%), although the frequencies of occurrence of the three types varied greatly across regions, years, and management. This environment classification was applied to 16 trials relevant to late stages testing of a breeding programme. The incorporation of the independently-determined environment types in a statistical analysis assisted interpretation of the GEI for yield among the 18 representative genotypes by reducing the relative effect of GEI compared with genotypic variance, and helped to identify opportunities to improve breeding and germplasm-testing strategies for this region.

QTL for nodal root angle in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) co-locate with QTL for traits associated with drought adaptation.

Nodal root angle in sorghum influences vertical and horizontal root distribution in the soil profile and is thus relevant to drought adaptation. In this study, we report for the first time on the mapping of four QTL for nodal root angle (qRA) in sorghum, in addition to three QTL for root dry weight, two for shoot dry weight, and three for plant leaf area. Phenotyping was done at the six leaf stage for a mapping population (n = 141) developed by crossing two inbred sorghum lines with contrasting root angle. Nodal root angle QTL explained 58.2% of the phenotypic variance and were validated across a range of diverse inbred lines. Three of the four nodal root angle QTL showed homology to previously identified root angle QTL in rice and maize, whereas all four QTL co-located with previously identified QTL for stay-green in sorghum. A putative association between nodal root angle QTL and grain yield was identified through single marker analysis on field testing data from a subset of the mapping population grown in hybrid combination with three different tester lines. Furthermore, a putative association between nodal root angle QTL and stay-green was identified using data sets from selected sorghum nested association mapping populations segregating for root angle. The identification of nodal root angle QTL presents new opportunities for improving drought adaptation mechanisms via molecular breeding to manipulate a trait for which selection has previously been very difficult.

Finding genes for economically important traits: Brahman cattle puberty.

Age at puberty is an important component of reproductive performance in beef cattle production systems. Brahman cattle are typically late-pubertal relative to Bos taurus cattle and so it is of economic relevance to select for early age at puberty. To assist selection and elucidate the genes underlying puberty, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using the BovineSNP50 chip (similar to 54 000 polymorphisms) in Brahman bulls (n = 1105) and heifers (n = 843) and where the heifers were previously analysed in a different study. In a new attempt to generate unbiased estimates of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects and proportion of variance explained by each SNP, the available data were halved on the basis of year and month of birth into a calibration and validation set. The traits that defined age at puberty were, in heifers, the age at which the first corpus luteum was detected (AGECL, h(2) = 0.56 +/- 0.11) and in bulls, the age at a scrotal circumference of 26 cm (AGE26, h(2) = 0.78 +/- 0.10). At puberty, heifers were on average older (751 +/- 142 days) than bulls (555 +/- 101 days), but AGECL and AGE26 were genetically correlated (r = 0.20 +/- 0.10). There were 134 SNPs associated with AGECL and 146 SNPs associated with AGE26 (P < 0.0001). From these SNPs, 32 (similar to 22%) were associated (P < 0.0001) with both traits. These top 32 SNPs were all located on Chromosome BTA 14, between 21.95 Mb and 28.4 Mb. These results suggest that the genes located in that region of BTA 14 play a role in pubertal development in Brahman cattle. There are many annotated genes underlying this region of BTA 14 and these are the subject of current research. Further, we identified a region on Chromosome X where markers were associated (P < 1.00E-8) with AGE26, but not with AGECL. Information about specific genes and markers add value to our understanding of puberty and potentially contribute to genomic selection. Therefore, identifying these genes contributing to genetic variation in AGECL and AGE26 can assist with the selection for early onset of puberty.

Genetic effects and genetic relationships among shrunken (sh2) sweet corn lines and F1 hybrids

The objectives of this study were to quantify the components of genetic variance and the genetic effects, and to examine the genetic relationship of inbred lines extracted from various shrunken2(sh2) breeding populations. Ten diverse inbred lines developed from genetic background, were crossed in half diallel. Parents and their F1 hybrids were evaluated at three environments. The parents were genotyped using 20 polymorphic simple sequence repeats (SSR). Agronomic and quality traits were analysed by a mixed linear model according to additive-dominance genetic model. Genetic effects were estimated using an adjusted unbiased prediction method. Additive variance was more important than dominance variance in the expression of traits related to ear aspects (husk ratio and percentage of ear filled) and eating quality (flavour and total soluble solids). For agronomic traits, however, dominance variance was more important than additive variance. The additive genetic correlation between flavour and tenderness was strong (r = 0.84, P <0.01). Flavour, tenderness and kernel colour additive genetic effects were not correlated with yield related traits. Genetic distance (GD), estimated from SSR profiles on the basis of Jaccard's similarity coefficient varied from 0.10 to 0.77 with an average of 0.56. Cluster analysis classified parents according to their pedigree relationships. In most studied traits, F1 performance was not associated with GD.

Inheritance of resistance to root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus) in five doubled-haploid populations of wheat

Nematode species Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus are the two most important root-lesion nematodes affecting wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and other grain crops in Australia. For practical plant breeding, it will be valuable to know the mode of inheritance of resistance and whether the same set of genes confer resistance to both species. We evaluated reactions to P. thornei and P. neglectus of glasshouse-inoculated plants of five doubled-haploid populations derived from five resistant synthetic hexpaloid wheat lines, each crossed to the susceptible Australian wheat cultivar Janz. For each cross we determined genetic variance, heritability and minimum number of effective resistance genes for each nematode species. Distributions of nematode numbers for both species were continuous for all doubled-haploid populations. Heritabilities were high and the resistances were controlled by 4-7 genes. There was no genetic correlation between resistance to P. thornei and to P. neglectus in four of the populations and a significant but low correlation in one. Therefore, resistances to P. thornei and to P. neglectus are probably inherited quantitatively and independently in four of these synthetic hexaploid wheat populations, with the possibility of at least one genetic factor contributing to resistance to both species in one of the populations. Parents with the greatest level of resistance will be the best to use as donor parents to adapted cultivars, and selection of resistance to both species in early generations will be optimal to carry resistance through successive cycles of inbreeding to produce resistant cultivars for release.

Performance of Pinus elliottii, Pinus caribaea, their F-1, F-2 and backcross hybrids and Pinus taeda to 10 years in the Mesopotamia region, Argentina

Performances of Pinus taxa were studied to 10 years of age in two trials in each of Misiones and Entre Rios provinces across the Mesopotamia region of Argentina. Taxa comprised 22 populations from sources in Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Zimbabwe including Pinus elliottii var. elliottii (Pee), Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis (Pch), their four, inter-specific hybrids (F-1, F-2 and backcrosses from F-1 to Pch and to Pee-all as broadly based bulks); other Pee and Pinus taeda (Pt) comprised narrower or unspecified bulks. Variable numbers of taxa were missing at each site. Mean survival across sites at age 10 years ranged 53.2-91.3% averaging 74.2%. Analysis of variance of plot means indicated population effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for all or most growth and quality traits at all sites. However, significant differences from the nominated check seedlot at the Entre Rios sites (Pee, Australia) were extremely rare, while quite common at the northern, Misiones sites (check seedlot a Pt population). In the Misiones trials, F-1, F-2 and both backcross hybrids showed better stem straightness than Pee and Pt from Argentina, generally with statistically significant differences (p < 0.05). Pt showed lowest forking scores (desirable). Taxon x environment interaction was statistically significant (p < 0.01) for growth traits only (p > 0.05). However, this interaction contributed an average of only 34.1% of the taxon variance suggesting a lack of practical importance. Taxa most suitable for deployment in the Mesopotamia region, Argentina are suggested.

Resilience of a eucalypt forest woody understorey to long-term (34–55 years) repeated burning in subtropical Australia

We investigated the effects of annual burning since 1952, triennial burning since 1973, fire exclusion since 1946 and infrequent wildfire (one fire in 61 years) on woody understorey vegetation in a dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, south-eastern Queensland, Australia. We determined the influence of these treatments, and other site variables (rainfall, understorey density, topsoil C : N ratio, tree basal area, distance to watercourse and burn coverage) on plant taxa density, richness and composition. The richness of woody understorey taxa 0–1 m in height was not affected by burning treatments, but richness of woody plants 1–7.5 m in height was lower in the annually burnt treatment than in the triennially burnt treatment from 1989 to 2007. Fire frequency and other site variables explained 34% of the variation in taxa composition (three taxon groups and 10 species), of which 33% of the explained variance was explained by fire treatment and 46% was explained by other site variables. Annual burning between 1974 and 1993 was associated with lower understorey densities mainly due to reduced densities of eucalypts 1–7.5 m in height. Triennial burning during the same period was associated with higher densities of eucalypts 0–7.5 m in height relative to the annually burnt and unburnt treatments. Most woody taxa persisted in the frequently burnt treatments through resprouting mechanisms (e.g. lignotuberous regeneration), and fire patchiness associated with low-intensity burning was also found to be important. Persistence of plants <1 m tall demonstrates the resilience of woody taxa to repeated burning in this ecosystem, although they mainly exist in a suppressed growth state under annual burning.

The use of genetic correlations to evaluate associations between SNP markers and quantitative traits

Open-pollinated progeny of Corymbia citriodora established in replicated field trials were assessed for stem diameter, wood density, and pulp yield prior to genotyping single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and testing the significance of associations between markers and assessment traits. Multiple individuals within each family were genotyped and phenotyped, which facilitated a comparison of standard association testing methods and an alternative method developed to relate markers to additive genetic effects. Narrow-sense heritability estimates indicated there was significant additive genetic variance within this population for assessment traits ( h ˆ 2 =0.28to0.44 ) and genetic correlations between the three traits were negligible to moderate (r G = 0.08 to 0.50). The significance of association tests (p values) were compared for four different analyses based on two different approaches: (1) two software packages were used to fit standard univariate mixed models that include SNP-fixed effects, (2) bivariate and multivariate mixed models including each SNP as an additional selection trait were used. Within either the univariate or multivariate approach, correlations between the tests of significance approached +1; however, correspondence between the two approaches was less strong, although between-approach correlations remained significantly positive. Similar SNP markers would be selected using multivariate analyses and standard marker-trait association methods, where the former facilitates integration into the existing genetic analysis systems of applied breeding programs and may be used with either single markers or indices of markers created with genomic selection processes.

Scrotal circumference of Australian beef bulls

Normal range for scrotal circumference in Australian beef bulls was established using more than 300,000 measurements of breed, management group, age, liveweight, and scrotal circumference. The data used were derived from Australian bull breeders and two large research projects in northern Australia. Most bulls were within 250 to 750 kg liveweight and 300 to 750 days of age. The differences between breeds and variances within breeds were higher when scrotal circumference was predicted from age rather than liveweight, because of variance in growth rates. The average standard deviation for predicted scrotal circumference from liveweight and age was 25 and 30 mm, respectively. Scrotal circumference by liveweight relationships have a similar pattern across all breeds, except in Waygu, with a 50 to 70 mm range in average scrotal circumference at liveweights between 250 and 750 kg. Temperate breed bulls tended to have higher scrotal circumference at the same liveweight than tropically adapted breeds. Five groupings of common beef breeds in Australian were identified, within which there were similar predictions of scrotal circumference from liveweight. It was concluded that liveweight and breed are required to identify whether scrotal circumference is within normal range for Australian beef bulls that experience a wide range of nutritional conditions.