Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of enhanced vegetation index from MODIS satellite imagery

Cereal grain is one of the main export commodities of Australian agriculture. Over the past decade, crop yield forecasts for wheat and sorghum have shown appreciable utility for industry planning at shire, state, and national scales. There is now an increasing drive from industry for more accurate and cost-effective crop production forecasts. In order to generate production estimates, accurate crop area estimates are needed by the end of the cropping season. Multivariate methods for analysing remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 16-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery within the cropping period (i.e. April-November) were investigated to estimate crop area for wheat, barley, chickpea, and total winter cropped area for a case study region in NE Australia. Each pixel classification method was trained on ground truth data collected from the study region. Three approaches to pixel classification were examined: (i) cluster analysis of trajectories of EVI values from consecutive multi-date imagery during the crop growth period; (ii) harmonic analysis of the time series (HANTS) of the EVI values; and (iii) principal component analysis (PCA) of the time series of EVI values. Images classified using these three approaches were compared with each other, and with a classification based on the single MODIS image taken at peak EVI. Imagery for the 2003 and 2004 seasons was used to assess the ability of the methods to determine wheat, barley, chickpea, and total cropped area estimates. The accuracy at pixel scale was determined by the percent correct classification metric by contrasting all pixel scale samples with independent pixel observations. At a shire level, aggregated total crop area estimates were compared with surveyed estimates. All multi-temporal methods showed significant overall capability to estimate total winter crop area. There was high accuracy at pixel scale (>98% correct classification) for identifying overall winter cropping. However, discrimination among crops was less accurate. Although the use of single-date EVI data produced high accuracy for estimates of wheat area at shire scale, the result contradicted the poor pixel-scale accuracy associated with this approach, due to fortuitous compensating errors. Further studies are needed to extrapolate the multi-temporal approaches to other geographical areas and to improve the lead time for deriving cropped-area estimates before harvest.

Grazing management influences the dynamics of populations of Stylosanthes hippocampoides (Oxley fine stem stylo)

This paper describes a study to identify those factors which control the persistence of the Subtropical legume Stylosanthes hippocampoides, formerly S. guianensis cv. Oxley (fine stem stylo). The dynamics of S. hippocampoides populations was recorded in permanent quadrats at 2 stocking rates in a grazing study conducted between 1987 and 1992 in south-eastern Queensland. Density of mature plants fluctuated between 10 and 60 plants/m(2) during the 5 years with the major contributing factors being variations in seedling recruitment and survival, which, in turn, reflected the size of the soil seed bank and seasonal rainfall. Plant density was consistently higher at the lower stocking rate of 1 beast/1.5 ha compared with 1 beast/1 ha; however, the effect of stocking rate was minor compared with fluctuation due to seasonal variation in rainfall. The maximum life span of the original plants exceeded 5 years, while the survival of seedling cohorts was strongly impacted by seasonal rainfall. Total exclosure from grazing during summer increased the size of the soil seed bank although a precise time period during summer was not identified, while grazing at the lower stocking pressure produced the same outcome. It was concluded that the large seasonal variation that occurs in S. hippocampoides density is driven by large seasonal variation in seedling recruitment, which, in turn, is influenced by the size of the soil seed bank.

Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

Lantana (Lantana camara) Seed Bank Dynamics: Seedling Emergence and Seed Survival.

Seed persistence is poorly quantified for invasive plants of subtropical and tropical environments and Lantana camara, one of the world's worst weeds, is no exception. We investigated germination, seedling emergence, and seed survival of two lantana biotypes (Pink and pink-edged red [PER]) in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Controlled experiments were undertaken in 2002 and repeated in 2004, with treatments comprising two differing environmental regimes (irrigated and natural rainfall) and sowing depths (0 and 2 cm). Seed survival and seedling emergence were significantly affected by all factors (time, biotype, environment, sowing depth, and cohort) (P < 0.001). Seed dormancy varied with treatment (environment, sowing depth, biotype, and cohort) (P < 0.001), but declined rapidly after 6 mo. Significant differential responses by the two biotypes to sowing depth and environment were detected for both seed survival and seedling emergence (P < 0.001). Seed mass was consistently lower in the PER biotype at the population level (P < 0.001), but this variation did not adequately explain the differential responses. Moreover, under natural rainfall the magnitude of the biotype effect was unlikely to result in ecologically significant differences. Seed survival after 36 mo under natural rainfall ranged from 6.8 to 21.3%. Best fit regression analysis of the decline in seed survival over time yielded a five-parameter exponential decay model with a lower asymptote approaching −0.38 (% seed survival = [( 55 − (−0.38)) • e (k • t)] + −0.38; R2 = 88.5%; 9 df). Environmental conditions and burial affected the slope parameter or k value significantly (P < 0.01). Seed survival projections from the model were greatest for buried seeds under natural rainfall (11 yr) and least under irrigation (3 yr). Experimental data and model projections suggest that lantana has a persistent seed bank and this should be considered in management programs, particularly those aimed at eradication.

Population dynamics of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in north eastern Australia: simulated responses to control

Wild European rabbits are a serious problem to agriculture in Australia, with an estimated annual cost of A$ 113 million. Biological control agents (myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus) have caused large and sustained declines in rabbit populations throughout Australia. A simulation model incorporates these diseases as well as warren destruction as methods of controlling rabbit populations in Queensland, north eastern Australia. These diseases reduced populations by 90-99% and the combination of these and warren destruction led to 100% control in simulations at six sites across southern Queensland. Increasing monthly pasture growth by 15% had little effect on simulated populations whereas a 15% decrease reduced populations by 0-50%. An increase in temperature of 2.5 °C would lead to a 15-60% decrease in populations. These effects suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in the population of rabbits in Queensland and a retraction in the northern limit of their distribution in Australia.

Landscape structure influences tree density patterns in fragmented woodlands in semi-arid eastern Australia.

Landscape and local-scale influences are important drivers of plant community structure. However, their relative contribution and the degree to which they interact remain unclear. We quantified the extent to which landscape structure, within-patch habitat and their confounding effects determine post-clearing tree densities and composition in agricultural landscapes in eastern subtropical Australia. Landscape structure (incorporating habitat fragmentation and loss) and within-patch (site) features were quantified for 60 remnant patches of Eucalyptus populnea (Myrtaceae) woodland. Tree density and species for three ecological maturity classes (regeneration, early maturity, late maturity) and local site features were assessed in one 100 × 10 m plot per patch. All but one landscape characteristic was determined within a 1.3-km radius of plots; Euclidean nearest neighbour distance was measured inside a 5-km radius. Variation in tree density and composition for each maturity class was partitioned into independent landscape, independent site and joint effects of landscape and site features using redundancy analysis. Independent site effects explained more variation in regeneration density and composition than pure landscape effects; significant predictors were the proportion of early and late maturity trees at a site, rainfall and the associated interaction. Conversely, landscape structure explained greater variation in early and late maturity tree density and composition than site predictors. Area of remnant native vegetation within a landscape and patch characteristics (area, shape, edge contrast) were significant predictors of early maturity tree density. However, 31% of the explained variation in early mature tree differences represented confounding influences of landscape and local variables. We suggest that within-patch characteristics are important in influencing semi-arid woodland tree regeneration. However, independent and confounding effects of landscape structure resulting from previous vegetation clearing may have exerted a greater historical influence on older cohorts and should be accounted for when examining woodland dynamics across a broader range of environments.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum. II. Grain filling period.

Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum: I. N demand of vegetative plant parts.

Stay-green, an important trait for grain yield of sorghum grown under water limitation, has been associated with a high leaf nitrogen content at the start of grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of leaves and stems and explores effects of N stress on the N balance of vegetative plant parts of three sorghum hybrids differing in potential crop height. The hybrids were grown under well-watered conditions at three levels of N supply. Vertical profiles of biomass and N% of leaves and stems, together with leaf size and number, and specific leaf nitrogen (SLN), were measured at regular intervals. The hybrids had similar minimum but different critical and maximum SLN, associated with differences in leaf size and N partitioning, the latter associated with differences in plant height. N demand of expanding new leaves was represented by critical SLN, and structural stem N demand by minimum stem N%. The fraction of N partitioned to leaf blades increased under N stress. A framework for N dynamics of leaves and stems is developed that captures effects of N stress and genotype on N partitioning and on critical and maximum SLN.

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 2. Population dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca.

The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca populations were studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were 4 stocking rates in native pasture and 2 of these stocking rates in legume oversown and supplement/spring burning treatments. For the 1999-2000 summer, population data for H. contortus in 5 of these native pasture and supplement/burning treatments were compared with those for an additional burnt treatment. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 24 to 61%. Increasing stocking rate from 5 to 2 ha/steer in native pasture reduced H. contortus plant density. Increasing stocking rate reduced seedling recruitment as a result of its effect on soil seedbanks. Seedling recruitment was the major determinant of change in plant density, although some individual H. contortus plants did survive throughout the study. Burning in spring 1999, particularly at light stocking rate, promoted seedling recruitment above that in both unburnt native and legume oversown pasture and resulted in increased H. contortus plant density. In the legume oversown treatments, S. scabra cv. Seca density increased rapidly from 15 plants/m2 in 1988 to 140 plants/m2 in 2001 following a lag phase between 1988 and 1993. This increased S. scabra density was associated with an eventual decline in H. contortus plant density through reduced seedling recruitment. It was concluded that H. contortus population density is sustainable at stocking rates of 4 and 5 ha/steer (30% pasture utilisation) and that spring burning at light stocking rate can promote H. contortus populations. Increasing densities of S. scabra need to be managed to prevent its dominance.

Resource Assessment of the Tidal Wetland Vegetation of Western Cape York Peninsula, North Queensland, Report to Ocean Rescue 2000

A project to allow the resource assessment of tidal wetland vegetation of western Cape York Peninsula, in north Queensland, was undertaken as part of the longterm assessment of the coastal fisheries resources of Queensland. The project incorporated a littoral invertebrate fauna component. Extending from May 1993 to December 1994, fieldwork was undertaken in May 1993, November 1993 and April 1994. The aims of this project were to: • obtain baseline information on the distribution of marine plants of western Cape York Peninsula; • commence a preliminary assessment of the littoral invertebrate fauna and their habitat requirements with a view to extending knowledge of their biogeographic affinities; • perform biogeographic classification of the tidal wetlands at a meso and local scale for marine conservation planning; • evaluate the conservation values of the areas investigated from the viewpoint of fisheries productivity and as habitat for important/threatened species. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Marine Vegetation of Cape York Peninsula. Cape York Peninsula Land Use Strategy, Office of Co-ordinator General of Queensland, Brisbane, Department of the Environment, Sport and Territories, Canberra

The Cape York Peninsula Land Use Strategy (CYPLUS) is a joint Queensland/Commonwealth initiative to provide a framework for making decisions about how to use and manage the natural resources of Cape York Peninsula in ways that will be ecologically sustainable. As part of the Natural Resources Analysis Program (NRAP) of CYPLUS, the Fisheries Division of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries has mapped the marine vegetation (mangroves and seagrasses) for Cape York Peninsula. The project ran from July 1992 to June 1994. Field work was undertaken in November 1992, May 1993, and April 1994. Final report on project: NRO6 – Marine Plan (Seagrass/Mangrove) Distribution. Dataset URL Link: Queensland Coastal Wetlands Resources Mapping data. [Dataset]

Impact of control strategies on bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) mortality, seedling recruitment, population dynamics, pasture yield and cost analysis

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) is an invasive weed that has the potential to greatly reduce biodiversity and pasture productivity in northern Australia’s rangelands. This paper reports an approach to develop best practice options for controlling medium to dense infestations of bellyache bush using combinations of control methods. The efficacy of five single treatments including foliar spraying, slashing, stick raking, burning and do nothing (control) were compared against 15 combinations of these treatments over 4 successive years. Treatments were evaluated using several attributes, including plant mortality, changes in population demographics, seedling recruitment, pasture yield and cost of treatment. Foliar spraying once each year for 4 years proved the most cost-effective control strategy, with no bellyache bush plants recorded at the end of the study. Single applications of slashing, stick raking and to a lesser extent burning, when followed up with foliar spraying also led to significantly reduced densities of bellyache bush and changed the population from a growing one to a declining one. Total experimental cost estimates over 4 successive years for treatments where burning, stick raking, foliar spraying, and slashing were followed with foliar spraying were AU$408, AU$584, AU$802 and AU$789 ha–1, respectively. Maximum pasture yield of 5.4 t ha–1 occurred with repeated foliar spraying. This study recommends that treatment combinations using either foliar spraying alone or as a follow up with slashing, stick raking or burning are best practice options following consideration of the level of control, changes in pasture yield and cost effectiveness.

Telomere dynamics in the Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata): an investigation into the effects of age, tissue type, location and time of sampling.

Telomere length has been purported as a biomarker for age and could offer a non-lethal method for determining the age of wild-caught individuals. Molluscs, including oysters and abalone, are the basis of important fisheries globally and have been problematic to accurately age. To determine whether telomere length could provide an alternative means of ageing molluscs, we evaluated the relationship between telomere length and age using the commercially important Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata). Telomere lengths were estimated from tissues of known age individuals from different age classes, locations and at different sampling times. Telomere length tended to decrease with age only in young oysters less than 18 months old, but no decrease was observed in older oysters aged 2-4 years. Regional and temporal differences in telomere attrition rates were also observed. The relationship between telomere length and age was weak, however, with individuals of identical age varying significantly in their telomere length making it an imprecise age biomarker in oysters.