A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

Choosing a fishery's governance structure using data poor methods

Multi-species fisheries are complex to manage and the ability to develop an appropriate governance structure is often seriously impeded because trading between sustainability objectives at the species level, economic objectives at the fleet level, and social objectives at the community scale, is complex. Many of these fisheries also tend to have a mix of information, with stock assessments available for some species and almost no information on other species. The fleets themselves comprise fishers from small family enterprises to large vertically integrated businesses. The Queensland trawl fishery in Australia is used as a case study for this kind of fishery. It has the added complexity that a large part of the fishery is within a World Heritage Area, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, which is managed by an agency of the Australian Commonwealth Government whereas the fishery itself is managed by the Queensland State Government. A stakeholder elicitation process was used to develop social, governance, economic and ecological objectives, and then weight the relative importance of these. An expert group was used to develop different governance strawmen (or management strategies) and these were assessed by a group of industry stakeholders and experts using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques against the different objectives. One strawman clearly provided the best overall set of outcomes given the multiple objectives, but was not optimal in terms of every objective, demonstrating that even the "best" strawman may be less than perfect. © 2012.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Plantation hardwood resource specifications required for planning small log sawing infrastructure investment in Queensland.

Improved information on the product quality of the plantation resource is needed to allow businesses to consider investing in the development of value-adding processing facilities. These facilities are likely to require customised design that optimises the utilisation of future small diameter plantation hardwood logs. This log resource will become available as wood supply in Queensland transitions from native forests to 100% from sustainable plantations. This resource will be controlled by plantations established prior to 2000. A survey of the three main growers (former Forest Enterprises Australia Pty Ltd, former Forestry Corporation of New South Wales, Hancock Queensland Plantation Pty Ltd) revealed that C. citriodora subsp.variegata – CCV (28.0%), Eucalyptus dunnii (27.5%), E. pilularis (23.0%), E. grandis (11.3%) and E. cloeziana –GMS (7.1%) were the most widely planted species in the southern Queensland and northern New South Wales subtropical hardwood estate and would potentially dominate the supply of plantation hardwoods to sawmill processing facilities.