20 resultados para Systemic Risk


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When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

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Sorghum ergot produces dihydroergosine (DHES) and related alkaloids, which cause hyperthermia in cattle. Proportions of infected panicles (grain heads), leaves and stems were determined in two forage sorghum crops extensively infected 2 to 4 weeks prior to sampling and the panicles were assayed for DHES. Composite samples from each crop, plus a third grain variety crop, were coarsely chopped and half of each sealed in plastic buckets for 6 weeks to simulate ensilation. The worst-infected panicles contained up to 55 mg DHES/kg, but dilution reduced average concentrations of DHES in crops to approximately 1 mg/kg, a relatively safe level for cattle. Ensilation significantly (P = 0.043) reduced mean DHES concentrations from 0.85 to 0.46 mg/kg.

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Crotalaria species containing hepatotoxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids grow widely in pastures in northern Australia and have sporadically poisoned grazing livestock. The diverse Crotalaria taxa present in these pastures include varieties, subspecies, and chemotypes not previously chemically examined. This paper reports the pyrrolizidine alkaloid composition and content of 24 Crotalaria taxa from this region and assesses the risk of poisoning in livestock consuming them. Alkaloids present in C. goreensis, C. aridicola subsp. densifolia, and C. medicaginea var. neglecta lack the esterified 1,2-unsaturated functionality required for pyrrole adduct formation, and these taxa are not hepatotoxic. Taxa with high levels of hepatotoxic alkaloids, abundance, and biomass pose the greatest risk to livestock health, particularly C. novae-hollandiae subsp. novae-hollandiae, C. ramosissima, C. retusa var. retusa, and C. crispata. Other species containing moderate alkaloid levels, C. spectabilis and C. mitchellii, also pose significant risk when locally abundant.

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Lead (Pb) poisoning of cattle has been relatively common in Australia and sump oil has been identified as an important cause of Pb toxicity for cattle because they seem to have a tendency to drink it. Lead-free petrol has been available in Australia since 1975, so the aim of this study was to assess the current risk to cattle from drinking used automotive oils. Sump or gear box oil was collected from 56 vehicles being serviced. The low levels of Pb found suggest that the removal of leaded petrol from the Australian market as a public health measure has benefited cattle by eliminating the risk of acute poisoning from used engine oil.

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Austral bracken Pteridium esculentum contains three unstable norsesquiterpene glycosides: ptaquiloside, ptesculento-side, and caudatoside, in variable proportions. The concentration of each of the glycosides was determined in this study as their respective degradation products, pterosin B, pterosin G and pterosin A, by HPLC-UV analysis. Samples of P. esculentum collected from six sites in eastern Australia contained up to 17 mg of total glycoside/g DW, with both ptaquiloside and ptesculentoside present as major components accompanied by smaller amounts of caudatoside. Ratios of ptaquiloside to ptesculentoside varied from 1:3 to 4:3, but in all Australian samples ptesculentoside was a significant component. This profile differed substantially from that of P. esculentum from New Zealand, which contained only small amounts of both ptesculentoside and caudatoside, with ptaquiloside as the dominant component. A similar profile with ptaquiloside as the dominant glycoside was obtained for Pteridium aquilinum subsp. wightianum (previously P. revolutum) from northern Queensland and also P. aquilinum from European sources. Ptesculentoside has chemical reactivity similar to that of ptaquiloside and presumably biological activity similar to that of this potent carcinogen. The presence of this additional reactive glycoside in Australian P. esculentum implies greater toxicity for consuming animals than previously estimated from ptaquiloside content alone.