The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Effects of fishing on tropical reef associated shark populations on the Great Barrier Reef

Three data sets were examined to define the level of interaction of reef associated sharks with the commercial Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery within the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Data were examined from fishery logbooks, an observer program within the fishery and a fishery-independent survey conducted as part of the Effects of Line Fishing (ELF) Experiment. The majority of the identified catch was comprised of grey reef (62-72%), whitetip reef (16-29%) and blacktip reef (6-13%) sharks. Logbook data revealed spatially and temporally variable landings of shark from the GBR. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) through time was stable for the period from 1989 to 2006 with no evidence of increase or decline. Data from observer and ELF data sets indicated no differences in CPUE among regions. The ELF data set demonstrated that CPUE was higher in Marine National Park zones (no fishing) when compared to General Use zones (open to fishing). The ongoing and consistent catches of reef sharks in the fishery and effectiveness of no-fishing zones suggest that management zones within the GBR Marine Park are effective at protecting a portion of the reef shark population from exploitation.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

Needs for applied climate education in agriculture

This paper reports on a purposive survey study which aimed to identify needs for the development, delivery and evaluation of applied climate education for targeted groups, to improve knowledge and skills to better manage under variable climatic conditions. The survey sample consisted of 80 producers and other industry stakeholders in Australia (including representatives from consulting, agricultural extension and agricultural education sectors), with a 58% response rate to the survey. The survey included an assessment of (i) knowledge levels of the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures, and (ii) skill and ability in interpreting weather and climate parameters. Results showed that despite many of the respondents having more than 20 years experience in their industry, the only formal climate education or training undertaken by most was a 1-day workshop. Over 80% of the applied climate skills listed in the survey were regarded by respondents as essential or important, but only 42% of educators, 30% of consultants and 28% of producers rated themselves as competent in applying such skills. Essential skills were deemed as those that would enable respondents or their clients to be better prepared for the next extended wet or dry meteorological event, and improved capability in identifying and capitalising on key decision points from climate information and a seasonal climate outlook. The complex issue of forecast accuracy is a confounding obstacle for many in the application of climate information and forecasts in management. Addressing this problem by describing forecast 'limitations and skill' can help to overcome this problem. The survey also highlighted specific climatic tactical and strategic information collated from grazing, cropping and agribusiness enterprises, and showed the value of such information from a users perspective.

Survey of weed flora and management relative to cropping practices in the north-eastern grain region of Australia

The main weeds and weed management practices undertaken in broad acre dryland cropping areas of north-eastern Australia have been identified. The information was collected in a comprehensive postal survey of both growers and agronomists from Dubbo in New South Wales (NSW) through to Clermont in central Queensland, where 237 surveys were returned. A very diverse weed flora of 105 weeds from 91 genera was identified for the three cropping zones within the region (central Queensland, southern Queensland and northern NSW). Twenty-three weeds were common to all cropping zones. The major common weeds were Sonchus oleraceus, Rapistrum rugosum, Echinochloa spp. and Urochloa panicoides. The main weeds were identified for both summer and winter fallows, and sorghum, wheat and chickpea crops for each of the zones, with some commonality as well as floral uniqueness recorded. More genera were recorded in the fallows than in crops, and those in summer fallows exceeded the number in winter. Across the region, weed management relied heavily on herbicides. In fallows, glyphosate and mixes with glyphosate were very common, although the importance of the glyphosate mix partner differed among the cropping zones. Use and importance of pre-emergence herbicides in-crop varied considerably among the zones. In wheat, more graminicides were used in northern NSW than in southern Queensland, and virtually none were used in central Queensland, reflecting the differences in winter grass weed flora across the region. Atrazine was the major herbicide used in sorghum, although metolachlor was also used predominantly in northern NSW. Fallow and inter-row cultivation were used more often in the southern areas of the region. Grazing of fallows was more prominent in northern NSW. High crop seeding rates were not commonly recorded indicating that growers are not using crop competition as a tool for weed management. Although many management practices were recorded overall, few growers were using integrated weed management, and herbicide resistance has been and continues to be an issue for the region.

Development of a model based on Bayesian networks to estimate the probability of sheep lice presence at shearing

This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

Quantifying Transmission of Campylobacter jejuni in Commercial Broiler Flocks

Since meat from poultry colonized with Campylobacter spp. is a major cause of bacterial gastroenteritis, human exposure should be reduced by, among other things, prevention of colonization of broiler flocks. To obtain more insight into possible sources of introduction of Campylobacter into broiler flocks, it is essential to estimate the moment that the first bird in a flock is colonized. If the rate of transmission within a flock were known, such an estimate could be determined from the change in the prevalence of colonized birds in a flock over time. The aim of this study was to determine the rate of transmission of Campylobacter using field data gathered for 5 years for Australian broiler flocks. We used unique sampling data for 42 Campylobacter jejuni-colonized flocks and estimated the transmission rate, which is defined as the number of secondary infections caused by one colonized bird per day. The estimate was 2.37 +/- 0.295 infections per infectious bird per day, which implies that in our study population colonized flocks consisting of 20,000 broilers would have an increase in within-flock prevalence to 95% within 4.4 to 7.2 days after colonization of the first broiler. Using Bayesian analysis, the moment of colonization of the first bird in a flock was estimated to be from 21 days of age onward in all flocks in the study. This study provides an important quantitative estimate of the rate of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks, which could be helpful in future studies on the epidemiology of Campylobacter in the field.

How accurate are the marker orders in crop linkage maps generated from large marker datasets?

Marker ordering during linkage map construction is a critical component of QTL mapping research. In recent years, high-throughput genotyping methods have become widely used, and these methods may generate hundreds of markers for a single mapping population. This poses problems for linkage analysis software because the number of possible marker orders increases exponentially as the number of markers increases. In this paper, we tested the accuracy of linkage analyses on simulated recombinant inbred line data using the commonly used Map Manager QTX (Manly et al. 2001: Mammalian Genome 12, 930-932) software and RECORD (Van Os et al. 2005: Theoretical and Applied Genetics 112, 30-40). Accuracy was measured by calculating two scores: % correct marker positions, and a novel, weighted rank-based score derived from the sum of absolute values of true minus observed marker ranks divided by the total number of markers. The accuracy of maps generated using Map Manager QTX was considerably lower than those generated using RECORD. Differences in linkage maps were often observed when marker ordering was performed several times using the identical dataset. In order to test the effect of reducing marker numbers on the stability of marker order, we pruned marker datasets focusing on regions consisting of tightly linked clusters of markers, which included redundant markers. Marker pruning improved the accuracy and stability of linkage maps because a single unambiguous marker order was produced that was consistent across replications of analysis. Marker pruning was also applied to a real barley mapping population and QTL analysis was performed using different map versions produced by the different programs. While some QTLs were identified with both map versions, there were large differences in QTL mapping results. Differences included maximum LOD and R-2 values at QTL peaks and map positions, thus highlighting the importance of marker order for QTL mapping

Development and testing of an evaluation procedure for commercial manure additive products.

Manure additive products can be used to reduce odour emissions (OE) from livestock farms. The standardised evaluation of these manure additive products under specific farm conditions is important. In this study, the efficacy of a manure additive (WonderTreat(TM), CKLS, Inc., Hong-Kong) was assessed under Australian conditions utilising a combination of laboratory and field-scale evaluation techniques. As a first step, the efficacy of the manure additive was assessed in a laboratory-scale trial using a series of uniformly managed digesters and standard odour, liquor ammonia and hydrogen sulphide concentration measurement procedures. This showed that the addition of WonderTreat(TM) at the 'low dose rate' (LDR) (102.6 g m-2) used during the trial significantly, but only marginally (30%; P = 0.02) reduced the OE rate (mean 13.9 OU m-2 s-1) of anaerobic pig liquor relative to an untreated control (UC) (19.9 OU m-2 s-1). However, the 'high dose rate' (HDR) (205.3 g m-2) also assessed during the trial preformed similarly (19.7 OU m-2 s-1) to the UC. No statistically significant difference in the concentrations of a range of measured water quality variables at the 5% level was observed between the treatments or controls digesters. As a second step, a field-scale assessment of the manure additive was undertaken at a commercial piggery. Two piggery manure lagoons (each with approximately 2500 m2 surface area) were included in the study; one was treated with WonderTreat(TM) while the other was used as control. The efficacy of the treatment was assessed using olfactometric evaluation of odour samples collected from the surface of the pond using a dynamic wind tunnel and ancillary equipment. No statistically significant reduction in OE rate could be demonstrated (P = 0.35), partially due to the limited number of samples taken during the assessment. However, there was a numerical reduction in the average OE rate of the treatment pond (29 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1) compared to the control lagoon (38 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1).

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia.

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

The stock structure of grey mackerel Scomberomorus semifasciatus in Australia as inferred from its parasite fauna

The scombrid Scomberomorus semifasciatus is an important component of inshore fisheries in tropical Australia. Data on the parasite fauna of 593 fish from areas off northern and eastern Australia were examined for evidence of discrete fish populations. The parasites used were juveniles of Pterobothrium pearsoni, Callitetrarhynchus gracilis, Anisakis simplex (sensu latu) and Terranova sp. Tukey Kramer pairwise comparisons gave significant differences in the abundances of two or more parasites between fish from the east coast, the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria and the remainder of northern Australia. Multivariate analysis gave further evidence of differences and the results suggest that at least 4 populations or stocks of grey mackerel occur along the northern and eastern coastline of Australia.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum: I. N demand of vegetative plant parts.

Stay-green, an important trait for grain yield of sorghum grown under water limitation, has been associated with a high leaf nitrogen content at the start of grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of leaves and stems and explores effects of N stress on the N balance of vegetative plant parts of three sorghum hybrids differing in potential crop height. The hybrids were grown under well-watered conditions at three levels of N supply. Vertical profiles of biomass and N% of leaves and stems, together with leaf size and number, and specific leaf nitrogen (SLN), were measured at regular intervals. The hybrids had similar minimum but different critical and maximum SLN, associated with differences in leaf size and N partitioning, the latter associated with differences in plant height. N demand of expanding new leaves was represented by critical SLN, and structural stem N demand by minimum stem N%. The fraction of N partitioned to leaf blades increased under N stress. A framework for N dynamics of leaves and stems is developed that captures effects of N stress and genotype on N partitioning and on critical and maximum SLN.

Pest-damage relationships for Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) during pod-fill.

The response of soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) to feeding by Helicoverpa armigera during the pod-fill stage was studied in irrigated field cages over three seasons to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. H. armigera intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the dry bean experiment, yield loss occurred at a rate 6.00 ± 1.29 g/HIE while the rates of loss in the three soybean experiments were 4.39 ± 0.96 g/HIE, 3.70 ± 1.21 g/HIE and 2.12 ± 0.71 g/HIE. These three slopes were not statistically different (P > 0.05) and the pooled estimate of the rate of yield loss was 3.21 ± 0.55 g/HIE. The first soybean experiment also showed a split-line form of damage curve with a rate of yield loss of 26.27 ± 2.92 g/HIE beyond 8.0 HIE and a rapid decline to zero yield. In dry bean, H. armigera feeding reduced total and undamaged pod numbers by 4.10 ± 1.18 pods/HIE and 12.88 ± 1.57 pods/HIE respectively, while undamaged seed numbers were reduced by 35.64 ± 7.25 seeds/HIE. In soybean, total pod numbers were not affected by H. armigera infestation (out to 8.23 HIE in Experiment 1) but seed numbers (in Experiments 1 and 2) and the number of seeds/pod (in all experiments) were adversely affected. Seed size increased with increases in H. armigera density in two of the three soybean experiments, indicating plant compensatory responses to H. armigera feeding. Analysis of canopy pod profiles indicated that loss of pods occurred from the top of the plant downwards, but with an increase in pod numbers close to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Based on these results, the economic injury levels for H. armigera on dry bean and soybean are approximately 0.74 HIE and 2.31 HIE/m2, respectively (0.67 and 2.1 HIE/row-m for 91 cm rows).

Determining and quantifying components of an aquaculture soundscape.

Recirculating aquaculture systems have a unique anthropogenic-based soundscape which is characterized by the type of equipment utilized, the structural configuration of walls, tanks, equipment, the substrate the tanks are situated on and even the activities of the personnel operating the facility. The soundscape of recirculation facilities is inadequately understood and remains poorly characterized, although it is generally accepted that the dominant sounds found in such facilities are within the hearing range of fish. The objective of this study was to evaluate the soundscape in a recirculating aquaculture facility from an intra-tank perspective and determine how the soundscape is shaped by a range of characteristics within the facility. Sounds were recorded across an operating aquaculture facility including different tank designs. The sounds recorded fell within previously measured pressure level ranges for recirculating systems, with the highest maximum sound pressure level (SPL) recorded at 124 dB re 1 mu Pa-2/Hz (with an FFT bin width of 46.9 Hz, centered at 187.5 Hz). The soundscape within the tanks was stratified and positively correlated with depth, the highest sound pressure occurring at the base of the tanks. Each recording of the soundscape was dominated by a frequency component of 187.5 Hz (corresponding centre of the 4th 46.9 Hz FFT analysis bin) that produced the highest observed SPL Analysis of sound recordings revealed that this peak SPL was associated with the acoustic signature of the pump. The soundscape was also evaluated for impacts of tank hood position, time of day, transient sounds and airstone particle size types, all of which were found to appreciably influence sound levels and structure within the tank environment. This study further discusses the distinctiveness of the soundscape, how it is shaped by the various operating components and considers the aquaculture soundscape in relation to natural soundscapes found within aquatic tropical environments.

Two sympatric spotted gum species are molecularly homogeneous.

Large fruited spotted gum eucalypt Corymbia henryi occurs sympatrically with small fruited spotted gum Corymbia citriodora subspecies variegata over a large portion of its range on the east coast of Australia. The two taxa are interfertile, have overlapping flowering times and share a common set of insect and vertebrate pollinators. Previous genetic analysis of both taxa from two geographically remote sites suggested that the two were morphotypes rather than genetically distinct species. In this study we further explore this hypothesis of genic species by expanding sampling broadly through their sympatric locations and examine local-scale spatial genetic structure in stands that differ in species and age composition. Delineation of populations at five microsatellite loci, using an individual-based approach and Bayesian modelling, as well as clustering of individuals based on allele frequencies showed the two species to be molecularly homogeneous. Genetic structure aligned largely with geographic areas of origin, and followed an isolation-by-distance model, where proximal populations were generally less differentiated than more distant ones. At the stand level, spotted gums also generally showed little structure consistent with the high levels of gene flow inferred across the species range. Disturbances in the uniformity of structuring were detected, however, and attributed to localised events giving rise to even aged stands, probably due to regeneration from a few individuals following fire.