23 resultados para Risk based Maintenance


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In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

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Australian utility pole network is aging and reaching its end of life, with 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II. The estimated investment required for the replacement or remedial maintenance of the aging 3.5 millions poles is as high as 1.75 billion dollars. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year, representing further investment of 13.5 million dollars per year. Yet, agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia have been signed, giving the industry about 25 years to make the transition from Crown native forests to plantations and private forests. As utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species, finding solutions to source new poles currently presents a challenge. This paper presents tests on Veneer Based Composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinning. Small diameter poles of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 veneers per halfpole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles cut from mature trees and of similar size. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. © RILEM 2014.

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Australia’s utility pole network is aging and approaching its end of life. It is estimated that 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally were installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II and require replacement or remedial maintenance. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year to support the expansion of the energy network. Utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species. However, due to agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia, finding new sources for utility poles presents a challenge. This paper presents the development of veneer based composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from mid-rotation Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinned trees (also referred to as “thinning”), as an alternative to solid hardwood poles. The incentives behind the project and benefits of the proposed products are introduced in the paper. Small diameter poles, of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness, were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 hardwood veneers per half-pole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles sourced from mature trees and of similar size. Additionally, the required dimensions of the proposed hollow pole to replace actual solid poles are estimated. Results show that the proposed product represents a viable technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective product for structural and architectural applications in general.

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In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

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In Australia, plantation forests have increased in area by around 50% in the last 10 years. While this expansion has seen a modest 8% increase for softwoods, hardwood plantations have dramatically increased by over 150%. Hardwood plantations grown for high quality sawn timber are slow to mature, with a crop rotation time potentially reaching 35 years. With this long lead-time, each year the risk from fire, pests and adverse weather events dramatically increases, while not translating into substantially higher financial returns to the grower. To justify continued expansion of Australia's current hardwood plantation estate, it is becoming necessary to develop higher value end-uses for both pulpwood and smaller 'sawlog' resources. The use of the low commercial value stems currently culled during thinning appears to be a necessary option to improve the industry profitability and win new markets. This paper provides background information on Australian forests and plantations and gives an overview of potential uses of Australian hardwood plantation thinning logs, as their mechanical properties. More specifically, this paper reports on the development of structural Veneer Based Composite (VBC) products from hardwood plantation thinning logs, taking advantage of a recent technology developed to optimise the processing of this resource. The process used to manufacture a range of hollow-form veneer laminated structural products is presented and the mechanical characteristics of these products are investigated in the companion paper. The market applications and future opportunities for the proposed products are also discussed, as potential benefits to the timber industry. © RILEM 2014.

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Probiotic supplements are single or mixed strain cultures of live microorganisms that benefit the host by improving the properties of the indigenous microflora (Seo et al 2010). In a pilot study at the University of Queensland, Norton et al (2008) found that Bacillus amyloliquefaciens Strain H57 (H57), primarily investigated as an inoculum to make high-quality hay, improved feed intake and nitrogen utilisation over several weeks in pregnant ewes. The purpose of the following study was to further challenge the potential of H57 -to show it survives the steam-pelleting process, and that it improves the performance of ewes fed pellets based on an agro-industrial by-product with a reputation for poor palatability, palm kernel meal (PKM), (McNeill 2013). Thirty-two first-parity White Dorper ewes (day 37 of pregnancy, mean liveweight = 47.3 kg, mean age = 15 months) were inducted into individual pens in the animal house at the University of Queensland, Gatton. They were adjusted onto PKM-based pellets (g/kg drymatter (DM): PKM, 408; sorghum, 430; chick pea hulls, 103; minerals and vitamins; Crude protein, 128; ME: 11.1MJ/kg DM) until day 89 of pregnancy and thereafter fed a predominately pelleted diet incorporating with or without H57 spores (10 9 colony forming units (cfu)/kg pellet, as fed), plus 100g/ewe/day oaten chaff, until day 7 of lactation. From day 7 to 20 of lactation the pelleted component of the diet was steadily reduced to be replaced by a 50:50 mix of lucerne: oaten chaff, fed ad libitum, plus 100g/ewe/day of ground sorghum grain with or without H57 (10 9 cfu/ewe/day). The period of adjustment in pregnancy (day 37-89) extended beyond expectations due to some evidence of mild ruminal acidosis after some initially high intakes that were followed by low intakes. During that time the diet was modified, in an attempt to improve palatability, by the addition of oaten chaff and the removal of an acidifying agent (NH4Cl) that was added initially to reduce the risk of urinary calculi. Eight ewes were removed due to inappetence, leaving 24 ewes to start the trial at day 90 of pregnancy. From day 90 of pregnancy until day 63 of lactation, liveweights of the ewes and their lambs were determined weekly and at parturition. Feed intakes of the ewes were determined weekly. Once lambing began, 1 ewe was removed as it gave birth to twin lambs (whereas the rest gave birth to a single lamb), 4 due to the loss of their lambs (2 to dystocia), and 1 due to copper toxicity. The PKM pellets were suspected to be the cause of the copper toxicity and so were removed in early lactation. Hence, the final statistical analysis using STATISTICA 8 (Repeated measures ANOVA for feed intake, One-way ANOVA for liveweight change and birth weight) was completed on 23 ewes for the pregnancy period (n = 11 fed H57; n = 12 control), and 18 ewes or lambs for the lactation period (n = 8 fed H57; n = 10 control). From day 90 of pregnancy until parturition the H57 supplemented ewes ate 17 more DM (g/day: 1041 vs 889, sed = 42.4, P = 0.04) and gained more liveweight (g/day: 193 vs 24.0, sed = 25.4, P = 0.0002), but produced lambs with a similar birthweight (kg: 4.18 vs 3.99, sed = 0.19, P = 0.54). Over the 63 days of lactation the H57 ewes ate similar amounts of DM but grew slower than the control ewes (g/day: 1.5 vs 97.0, sed = 21.7, P = 0.012). The lambs of the H57 ewes grew faster than those of the control ewes for the first 21 days of lactation (g/day: 356 vs 265, sed = 16.5, P = 0.006). These data support the findings of Norton et al (2008) and Kritas et al (2006) that certain Bacillus spp. supplements can improve the performance of pregnant and lactating ewes. In the current study we particularly highlighted the capacity of H57 to stimulate immature ewes to continue to grow maternal tissue through pregnancy, possibly through an enhanced appetite, which appeared then to stimulate a greater capacity to partition nutrients to their lambs through milk, at least for the first few weeks of lactation, a critical time for optimising lamb survival. To conclude, H57 can survive the steam pelleting process to improve feed intake and maternal liveweight gain in late pregnancy, and performance in early lactation, of first-parity ewes fed a diet based on PKM.

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Puccinia psidii, the causal agent of myrtle rust, was first recorded from Latin America more than 100 years ago. It occurs on many native species of Myrtaceae in Latin America and also infects non-native plantation-grown Eucalyptus species in the region. The pathogen has gradually spread to new areas including Australia and most recently South Africa. The aim of this study was to consider the susceptibility of selected Eucalyptus genotypes, particularly those of interest to South African forestry, to infection by P. psidii. In addition, risk maps were compiled based on suitable climatic conditions and the occurrence of potential susceptible tree species. This made it possible to identify the season when P. psidii would be most likely to infect and to define the geographic areas where the rust disease would be most likely to establish in South Africa. As expected, variation in susceptibility was observed between eucalypt genotypes tested. Importantly, species commonly planted in South Africa show good potential for yielding disease-tolerant material for future planting. Myrtle rust is predicted to be more common in spring and summer. Coastal areas, as well as areas in South Africa with subtropical climates, are more conducive to outbreaks of the pathogen.

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Queensland fruit flies Bactrocera tryoni and B. neohumeralis are considered major quarantine pests of tomato, a major crop in the horticultural production district around Bowen, North Queensland, Australia. Preharvest and/or postharvest treatments are required to meet the market access requirements of both domestic and international trading partners. The suspension from use of dimethoate and fenthion, the two insecticides used for fruit fly control, has resulted in the loss of both pre and postharvest uses in fresh tomato. Research undertaken quantitatively at Bowen evaluated the effectiveness of pre-harvest production systems without specific fruit fly controls and postharvest mitigation measures in reducing the risk of fruit fly infestation in tomato. A district-wide trapping using cue-lure baited traps was undertaken to determine fruit fly seasonal patterns in relation to the cropping seasons. A total of 17,626 field-harvested and 11,755 pack-house tomatoes were sampled from ten farms over three cropping seasons (2006-2009). The fruit were incubated and examined for fruit fly infestation. No fruit fly infested fruit were recorded over the three seasons in either the field or the pack-house samples. Statistical analyses showed that upper infestation levels were extremely low (between 0.025 and 0.062%) at the 95% confidence level. The trap catches showed a seasonal pattern in fruit fly activity, with low numbers during the autumn and winter months, rising slightly in spring and peaking in summer. This seasonal pattern was similar over the four seasons. The main two species of fruit fly caught were B. tryoni and B. neohumeralis. Based on the results, it is clear that the risk of fruit fly infestation is extremely low under the current production systems in the Bowen region.