18 resultados para Rejection-sampling Algorithm


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Pathogens and pests of stored grains move through complex dynamic networks linking fields, farms, and bulk storage facilities. Human transport and other forms of dispersal link the components of this network. A network model for pathogen and pest movement through stored grain systems is a first step toward new sampling and mitigation strategies that utilize information about the network structure. An understanding of network structure can be applied to identifying the key network components for pathogen or pest movement through the system. For example, it may be useful to identify a network node, such as a local grain storage facility, through which grain from a large number of fields will be accumulated and move through the network. This node may be particularly important for sampling and mitigation. In some cases more detailed information about network structure can identify key nodes that link two large sections of the network, such that management at the key nodes will greatly reduce the risk of spread between the two sections. In addition to the spread of particular species of pathogens and pests, we also evaluate the spread of problematic subpopulations, such as subpopulations with pesticide resistance. We present an analysis of stored grain pathogen and pest networks for Australia and the United States.

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Invasive and noxious weeds are well known as a pervasive problem, imposing significant economic burdens on all areas of agriculture. Whilst there are multiple possible pathways of weed dispersal in this industry, of particular interest to this discussion is the unintended dispersal of weed seeds within fodder. During periods of drought or following natural disasters such as wild fire or flood, there arises the urgent need for 'relief' fodder to ensure survival and recovery of livestock. In emergency situations, relief fodder may be sourced from widely dispersed geographic regions, and some of these regions may be invaded by an extensive variety of weeds that are both exotic and detrimental to the intended destination for the fodder. Pasture hay is a common source of relief fodder and it typically consists of a mixture of grassy and broadleaf species that may include noxious weeds. When required urgently, pasture hay for relief fodder can be cut, baled, and transported over long distances in a short period of time, with little opportunity for prebaling inspection. It appears that, at the present time, there has been little effort towards rapid testing of bales, post-baling, for the presence of noxious weeds, as a measure to prevent dispersal of seeds. Published studies have relied on the analysis of relatively small numbers of bales, tested to destruction, in order to reveal seed species for identification and enumeration. The development of faster, more reliable, and non-destructive sampling methods is essential to increase the fodder industry's capacity to prevent the dispersal of noxious weeds to previously unaffected locales.