CIMMYT-selected derived synthetic bread wheats for rainfed environments: Yield evaluation in Mexico and Australia.

Synthetic backcrossed-derived bread wheats (SBWs) from CIMMYT were grown in the Northwest of Mexico at Centro de Investigaciones Agrícolas del Noroeste (CIANO) and sites across Australia during three seasons. During three consecutive years Australia received “shipments” of different SBWs from CIMMYT for evaluation. A different set of lines was evaluated each season, as new materials became available from the CIMMYT crop enhancement program. These consisted of approximately 100 advanced lines (F7) per year. SBWs had been top and backcrossed to CIMMYT cultivars in the first two shipments and to Australian wheat cultivars in the third one. At CIANO, the SBWs were trialled under receding soil moisture conditions. We evaluated both the performance of each line across all environments and the genotype-by-environment interaction using an analysis that fits a multiplicative mixed model, adjusted for spatial field trends. Data were organised in three groups of multienvironment trials (MET) containing germplasm from shipment 1 (METShip1), 2 (METShip2), and 3 (METShip3), respectively. Large components of variance for the genotype × environment interaction were found for each MET analysis, due to the diversity of environments included and the limited replication over years (only in METShip2, lines were tested over 2 years). The average percentage of genetic variance explained by the factor analytic models with two factors was 50.3% for METShip1, 46.7% for METShip2, and 48.7% for METShip3. Yield comparison focused only on lines that were present in all locations within a METShip, or “core” SBWs. A number of core SBWs, crossed to both Australian and CIMMYT backgrounds, outperformed the local benchmark checks at sites from the northern end of the Australian wheat belt, with reduced success at more southern locations. In general, lines that succeeded in the north were different from those in the south. The moderate positive genetic correlation between CIANO and locations in the northern wheat growing region likely reflects similarities in average temperature during flowering, high evaporative demand, and a short flowering interval. We are currently studying attributes of this germplasm that may contribute to adaptation, with the aim of improving the selection process in both Mexico and Australia.

Patterns of release of the secondary conidia of Claviceps africana, the sorghum ergot pathogen in Australia

Trials were conducted in southern Queensland, Australia between March and May 2003, 2004 and 2005 to study patterns of hourly and daily release of the secondary conidia of Claviceps africana and their relationships with weather parameters. Conidia were trapped for at least one hour on most (> 90%) days in 2003 and 2004, but only on 55% of days in 2005. Both the highest daily concentration of conidia, and the highest number of hours per day when conidia were trapped, were recorded 1-3 days after rainfall events. Although the pattern of conidial release was different every day, the highest hourly conidial concentrations occurred between 10.00 hours and 17.00 hours on 73% of all days in the three trials. Hours when conidia were trapped were characterized by higher median values of temperature, windspeed and vapour pressure deficit, lower relative humidity, and leaf wetness values of 0%, than hours when no conidia were recorded. The results indicate that fungicides need to be applied to the highly ergot-susceptible male sterile (A-) lines of sorghum in hybrid seed production blocks and breeders' nurseries as soon as possible after rainfall events to minimize ergot severity.

A lesson from cyclone Larry: An untold story of the success of good coastal planning

When tropical cyclone Larry crossed the Queensland coast on 20 March 2006, commercial, recreational and naval vessels in the port of Cairns, 60 km north of the eye of the cyclone and others closer to the eye, were protected from the destructive winds by sheltering in deep mangrove creeks in Trinity Inlet and off other coastal rivers. The Trinity Inlet mangroves are protected under the comprehensive multi-use Trinity Inlet Management Plan, agreed by the local and state government agencies (Cairns City Council, the Cairns Port Authority and the Queensland Government). Using this Australian example and one from the town of Palompon in Leyte province, central Philippines, we show how long-term mangrove habitat protection resulting from well-conceived coastal planning can deliver important economic and infrastructure benefits.

Recruitment dynamics of invasive species in rainforest habitats following Cyclone Larry

In tropical forests, natural disturbance creates opportunities for species to claim previously utilized space and resources and is considered an important mechanism in the maintenance of species diversity. However, ecologists have long recognized that disturbance also promotes exotic plant invasions. Cyclones cause extensive defoliation, loss of major branches and multiple tree falls, resulting in a significantly more open canopy and increased light and heat levels in the understorey. The widespread and massive disturbance caused by cyclones provides ideal conditions for rapid recruitment and spread of invasive species. The ecological roles of invasive species in rainforest habitats following such a severe disturbance are poorly understood. Severe category 4 Cyclone Larry crossed the North Queensland coast in March 2006 causing massive disturbance to rainforest habitats from Tully to Cairns and west to the Atherton Tablelands. We established 10 plots in an area extensively damaged by this cyclone near El Arish in North Queensland. On each plot nine 2 × 2 m quadrats were established with three quadrats per plot in each of the following treatments: (i) complete debris removal down to the soil layer, (ii) removal of coarse woody debris only, and (iii) uncleared. We monitored recruitment, growth and mortality of all native and invasive species in the 90 quadrats every 3 months since the cyclone. Here we present the recruitment dynamics of invasive species across the study area in relation to the level of disturbance, the type of quadrat treatment, and the diversity and abundance of the native recruiting flora over the first 12 months post-cyclone. Our results suggest that invasive species will mostly comprise a transient component of the flora in the early stages of the successional response. However, some species may have longer-term effects on the successional trajectory of the rainforest and future forest composition and structure.

Crop and environmental attributes underpinning genotype by environment interaction in synthetic-derived bread wheat evaluated in Mexico and Australia

Synthetic backcrossed-derived bread wheats (SBWs) from CIMMYT were grown in the north-west of Mexico (CIANO) and sites across Australia during 3 seasons. A different set of lines was evaluated each season, as new materials became available from the CIMMYT crop enhancement program. Previously, we have evaluated both the performance of genotypes across environments and the genotype x environment interaction (G x E). The objective of this study was to interpret the G x E for yield in terms of crop attributes measured at individual sites and to identify the potential environmental drivers of this interaction. Groups of SBWs with consistent yield performance were identified, often comprising closely related lines. However, contrasting performance was also relatively common among sister lines or between a recurrent parent and its SBWs. Early flowering was a common feature among lines with broad adaptation and/or high yield in the northern Australian wheatbelt, while yields in the southern region did not show any association with the maturity type. Lines with high yields in the southern and northern regions had cooler canopies during flowering and early grain filling. Among the SBWs with Australian genetic backgrounds, lines best adapted to CIANO were tall (>100 cm), with a slightly higher ground cover. These lines also displayed a higher concentration of water-soluble carbohydrates in the stem at flowering, which was negatively correlated with stem number per unit area when evaluated in southern Australia (Horsham). Possible reasons for these patterns are discussed. Selection for yield at CIANO did not specifically identify the lines best adapted to northern Australia, although they were not the most poorly adapted either. In addition, groups of lines with specific adaptation to the south would not have been selected by choosing the highest yielding lines at CIANO. These findings suggest that selection at CIMMYT for Australian environments may be improved by either trait based selection or yield data combined with trait information. Flowering date, canopy temperature around flowering, tiller density, and water-soluble carbohydrate concentration in the stem at flowering seem likely candidates.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Relative contributions of light interception and radiation use efficiency to the reduction of maize productivity under cold temperatures

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a chill-susceptible crop cultivated in northern latitude environments. The detrimental effects of cold on growth and photosynthetic activity have long been established. However, a general overview of how important these processes are with respect to the reduction of productivity reported in the field is still lacking. In this study, a model-assisted approach was used to dissect variations in productivity under suboptimal temperatures and quantify the relative contributions of light interception (PARc) and radiation use efficiency (RUE) from emergence to flowering. A combination of architectural and light transfer models was used to calculate light interception in three field experiments with two cold-tolerant lines and at two sowing dates. Model assessment confirmed that the approach was suitable to infer light interception. Biomass production was strongly affected by early sowings. RUE was identified as the main cause of biomass reduction during cold events. Furthermore, PARc explained most of the variability observed at flowering, its relative contributions being more or less important according to the climate experienced. Cold temperatures resulted in lower PARc, mainly because final leaf length and width were significantly reduced for all leaves emerging after the first cold occurrence. These results confirm that virtual plants can be useful as fine phenotyping tools. A scheme of action of cold on leaf expansion, light interception and radiation use efficiency is discussed with a view towards helping breeders define relevant selection criteria. This paper originates from a presentation at the 5th International Workshop on Functional–Structural Plant Models, Napier, New Zealand, November 2007.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Sorghum stay-green QTL individually reduce post-flowering drought-induced leaf senescence

Sorghum is an important source of food, feed, and biofuel, especially in the semi-arid tropics because this cereal is well adapted to harsh, drought-prone environments. Post-flowering drought adaptation in sorghum is associated with the stay-green phenotype. Alleles that contribute to this complex trait have been mapped to four major QTL, Stg1-Stg4, using a population derived from BTx642 and RTx7000. Near-isogenic RTx7000 lines containing BTx642 DNA spanning one or more of the four stay-green QTL were constructed. The size and location of BTx642 DNA regions in each RTx7000 NIL were analysed using 62 DNA markers spanning the four stay-green QTL. RTx7000 NILs were identified that contained BTx642 DNA completely or partially spanning Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, or Stg4. NILs were also identified that contained sub-portions of each QTL and various combinations of the four major stay-green QTL. Physiological analysis of four RTx7000 NILs containing only Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, or Stg4 showed that BTx642 alleles in each of these loci could contribute to the stay-green phenotype. RTx7000 NILs containing BTx642 DNA corresponding to Stg2 retained more green leaf area at maturity under terminal drought conditions than RTx7000 or the other RTx7000 NILs. Under post-anthesis water deficit, a trend for delayed onset of leaf senescence compared with RTx7000 was also exhibited by the Stg2, Stg3, and Stg4 NILs, while significantly lower rates of leaf senescence in relation to RTx7000 were displayed by all of the Stg NILs to varying degrees, but particularly by the Stg2 NIL. Greener leaves at anthesis relative to RTx7000, indicated by higher SPAD values, were exhibited by the Stg1 and Stg4 NILs. The RTx7000 NILs created in this study provide the starting point for in-depth analysis of stay-green physiology, interaction among stay-green QTL and map-based cloning of the genes that underlie this trait.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Effects of environmental heat on conception rates in lactating dairy cows: Critical periods of exposure

Environmental heat can reduce conception rates (the proportion of services that result in pregnancy) in lactating dairy cows. The study objectives were to identify periods of exposure relative to the service date in which environmental heat is most closely associated with conception rates, and to assess whether the total time cows are exposed to high environmental heat within each 24-h period is more closely associated with conception rates than is the maximum environmental heat for each 24-h period. A retrospective observational study was conducted in 25 predominantly Holstein-Friesian commercial dairy herds located in Australia. Associations between weather and conception rates were assessed using 16,878 services performed over a 21-mo period. Services were classified as successful based on rectal palpation. Two measures of heat load were defined for each 24-h period: the maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) for the period, and the number of hours in the 24-h period when the THI was >72. Conception rates were reduced when cows were exposed to a high heat load from the day of service to 6 d after service, and in wk -1. Heat loads in wk -3 to -5 were also associated with reduced conception rates. Thus, management interventions to ameliorate the effects of heat load on conception rates should be implemented at least 5 wk before anticipated service and should continue until at least 1 wk after service. High autocorrelations existed between successive daily values in both measures, and associations between day of heat load relative to service day and conception rates differed substantially when ridge regression was used to account for this autocorrelation. This indicates that when assessing the effects of heat load on conception rates, the autocorrelation in heat load between days should be accounted for in analyses. The results suggest that either weekly averages or totals summarizing the daily heat load are adequate to describe heat load when assessing effects on conception rates in lactating dairy cows.

Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Evaluating temperate species for the subtropics. 1. Annual ryegrasses

In the subtropics of Australia, irrigated temperate species are the key to reliable cool season feed on dairy farms. Persistence of perennial species is a major limitation to achieving reliable production from irrigated areas and yearly sowings of annual ryegrasses have replaced them as the most productive cool season forage production system in the subtropics. This series of experiments evaluated the yield, and resistance to rust damage, of commercially available cultivars and breeders' lines of annually sown ryegrasses (Lolium multiflorum, L. rigidum, L. x boucheanum and L perenne) in pure, nitrogen-fertilised swards under irrigation in the subtropics over a 22-year period. Barberia and Aristocrat 2 were the most adapted cultivars for subtropical conditions, producing high yields (119 and 114% of mean yield, respectively) and demonstrating the least rust damage. Newer selections from New Zealand, South African, United States of America and European breeding programs are performing better under subtropical conditions than older cultivars, particularly if a component of the selection process has been conducted in that environment. Cultivars such as Passerei Plus, Crusader, Hulk, Status and Warrior are examples of this process, producing between 105 and 115% of mean yield. Yields of annual ryegrass cultivars, which have been available or still are available for sale in Australia, ranged from 14-30 t/ha DM, depending on cultivar, site and seasonal conditions. Yields were lower at the site, which had inferior soil structure and drainage. Up to 50% of yield was produced in the 3 winter months. There was a trend towards improved yields and better tolerance of crown rust from experimental lines in the subtropics, as breeders strive for wider adaptation. Around 70% of the variation in total yield of annual ryegrass and 50 and 60% of the variation in winter and spring yield, respectively, were significantly explained by cultivar, site and climatic variables in autumn, winter and spring. While level of rust damage had no effect on total or seasonal yields, it affected the amount of green leaf available in spring. Under subtropical conditions, winter, spring and overall (autumn to mid-summer) temperatures influenced the- development of rust, which along with cultivar, accounted for 46% of the variation in rust damage. Cultivars showed a range of adaptation, with some performing well only under adverse conditions, some being well adapted to all conditions and some which performed well only under favoured conditions. Cultivars with high winter yields were most suited to subtropical conditions and included Aristocrat 2 (now released as CM 108), Barberia, Warrior, Crusader, Status, Passerei Plus and Hulk. Short growing season types such as Winter Star and T Rex performed well in winter but achieved lower total production, and long season cultivars such as Flanker rarely achieved their potential because of unfavourable conditions in late summer.

Needs for applied climate education in agriculture

This paper reports on a purposive survey study which aimed to identify needs for the development, delivery and evaluation of applied climate education for targeted groups, to improve knowledge and skills to better manage under variable climatic conditions. The survey sample consisted of 80 producers and other industry stakeholders in Australia (including representatives from consulting, agricultural extension and agricultural education sectors), with a 58% response rate to the survey. The survey included an assessment of (i) knowledge levels of the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures, and (ii) skill and ability in interpreting weather and climate parameters. Results showed that despite many of the respondents having more than 20 years experience in their industry, the only formal climate education or training undertaken by most was a 1-day workshop. Over 80% of the applied climate skills listed in the survey were regarded by respondents as essential or important, but only 42% of educators, 30% of consultants and 28% of producers rated themselves as competent in applying such skills. Essential skills were deemed as those that would enable respondents or their clients to be better prepared for the next extended wet or dry meteorological event, and improved capability in identifying and capitalising on key decision points from climate information and a seasonal climate outlook. The complex issue of forecast accuracy is a confounding obstacle for many in the application of climate information and forecasts in management. Addressing this problem by describing forecast 'limitations and skill' can help to overcome this problem. The survey also highlighted specific climatic tactical and strategic information collated from grazing, cropping and agribusiness enterprises, and showed the value of such information from a users perspective.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.