28 resultados para Panel VAR models
Resumo:
Nuclear hormone receptors, such as the ecdysone receptor, often display a large amount of induced fit to ligands. The size and shape of the binding pocket in the EcR subunit changes markedly on ligand binding, making modelling methods such as docking extremely challenging. It is, however, possible to generate excellent 3D QSAR models for a given type of ligand, suggesting that the receptor adopts a relatively restricted number of binding site configurations or [`]attractors'. We describe the synthesis, in vitro binding and selected in vivo toxicity data for [gamma]-methylene [gamma]-lactams, a new class of high-affinity ligands for ecdysone receptors from Bovicola ovis (Phthiraptera) and Lucilia cuprina (Diptera). The results of a 3D QSAR study of the binding of methylene lactams to recombinant ecdysone receptor protein suggest that this class of ligands is indeed recognized by a single conformation of the EcR binding pocket.
Resumo:
We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.
Resumo:
An efficient regeneration protocol based on organogenesis from cotyledon explants and suitable for gene delivery has been developed for an Australian passionfruit hybrid. Multiple shoots were regenerated from 30-day-old cotyledon explants on Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium containing 6-benzylvaminopurine (BAP) and coconut water. Media pulsing experiments were conducted to investigate the effect on organogenesis of exposure time of the explants to MS containing 10 mu M BAP and 10% (v/v) coconut water, i.e. passionfruit regeneration medium (PRM). Continuous exposure of these explants to PRM maximised the number of shoots produced to 12.1 per explant. However, periods on hormone-free medium improved the appearance of the shoots and increased the number of explants with shoots from 75 to 84.6%. Further, shoots exposed for 7 days to half-strength MS supplemented with 10 mu M NAA (1-napthalene acetic acid) produced twice as many plantlets than those on half-strength MS alone. Transient GUS histochemical assays indicated delivery of the uidA gene via Agrobacterium tumefaciens.
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Diachasmimorpha kraussii is a larval parasitoid of dacine fruit flies. Host utilisation behaviour, including field foraging behaviour, is poorly known in this species. The diurnal foraging behaviour of D. kraussii and one of its common hosts, Bactrocera tryoni, in a nectarine orchard was concurrently recorded. Observations of mating, resting, feeding and oviposition were taken two-hourly on 42 trees, commencing at 07:00 h and terminating at 17:30 h, for 17 days. Resting and oviposition were common events within the orchard for both species, while mating behaviours were not recorded in the orchard for either species. Feeding was not observed for D. kraussii and was rare for B. tryoni. At the level of the individual tree there was a very weak, but significant correlation between parasitoid and fly abundance over a day, but when broken down to the individual observation periods the correlations were absent, or were weakly significant in an inconsistent manner (i.e. sometimes positively correlated, sometimes negatively correlated). At the orchard level, abundance of the parasitoid was not correlated with adult fly abundance. Results suggest that D. kraussii forage independently to adult B. tryoni, a result consistent with a prediction that their foraging is largely driven by larval or plant damage cues.
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This paper presents a maximum likelihood method for estimating growth parameters for an aquatic species that incorporates growth covariates, and takes into consideration multiple tag-recapture data. Individual variability in asymptotic length, age-at-tagging, and measurement error are also considered in the model structure. Using distribution theory, the log-likelihood function is derived under a generalised framework for the von Bertalanffy and Gompertz growth models. Due to the generality of the derivation, covariate effects can be included for both models with seasonality and tagging effects investigated. Method robustness is established via comparison with the Fabens, improved Fabens, James and a non-linear mixed-effects growth models, with the maximum likelihood method performing the best. The method is illustrated further with an application to blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) for which a strong growth-retarding tagging effect that persisted for several months was detected. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Options for the integrated management of white blister (caused by Albugo candida) of Brassica crops include the use of well timed overhead irrigation, resistant cultivars, programs of weekly fungicide sprays or strategic fungicide applications based on the disease risk prediction model, Brassica(spot)(TM). Initial systematic surveys of radish producers near Melbourne, Victoria, indicated that crops irrigated overhead in the morning (0800-1200 h) had a lower incidence of white blister than those irrigated overhead in the evening (2000-2400 h). A field trial was conducted from July to November 2008 on a broccoli crop located west of Melbourne to determine the efficacy and economics of different practices used for white blister control, modifying irrigation timing, growing a resistant cultivar and timing spray applications based on Brassica(spot)(TM). Growing the resistant cultivar, 'Tyson', instead of the susceptible cultivar, 'Ironman', reduced disease incidence on broccoli heads by 99 %. Overhead irrigation at 0400 h instead of 2000 h reduced disease incidence by 58 %. A weekly spray program or a spray regime based on either of two versions of the Brassica(spot)(TM) model provided similar disease control and reduced disease incidence by 72 to 83 %. However, use of the Brassica(spot)(TM) models greatly reduced the number of sprays required for control from 14 to one or two. An economic analysis showed that growing the more resistant cultivar increased farm profit per ha by 12 %, choosing morning irrigation by 3 % and using the disease risk predictive models compared with weekly sprays by 15 %. The disease risk predictive models were 4 % more profitable than the unsprayed control.
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A new approach for the simultaneous identification of the viruses and vectors responsible for tomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD) epidemics is presented. A panel of quantitative multiplexed real-time PCR assays was developed for the sensitive and reliable detection of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus-Israel (TYLCV-IL), Tomato leaf curl virus (ToLCV), Bemisia tabaci Middle East Asia Minor 1 species (MEAM1, B biotype) and B.tabaci Mediterranean species (MED, Q biotype) from either plant or whitefly samples. For quality-assurance purposes, two internal control assays were included in the assay panel for the co-amplification of solanaceous plant DNA or B.tabaci DNA. All assays were shown to be specific and reproducible. The multiplexed assays were able to reliably detect as few as 10 plasmid copies of TYLCV-IL, 100 plasmid copies of ToLCV, 500fg B.tabaci MEAM1 and 300fg B.tabaci MED DNA. Evaluated methods for routine testing of field-collected whiteflies are presented, including protocols for processing B.tabaci captured on yellow sticky traps and for bulking of multiple B.tabaci individuals prior to DNA extraction. This work assembles all of the essential features of a validated and quality-assured diagnostic method for the identification and discrimination of tomato-infecting begomovirus and B.tabaci vector species in Australia. This flexible panel of assays will facilitate improved quarantine, biosecurity and disease-management programmes both in Australia and worldwide.
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We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.
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In agricultural species that are sexually propagated or whose marketable organ is a reproductive structure, management of the flowering process is critical. Inflorescence development in cauliflower is particularly complex, presenting unique challenges for those seeking to predict and manage flowering time. In this study, an integrated physiological and molecular approach was used to clarify the environmental control of cauliflower reproductive development at the molecular level. A functional allele of BoFLC2 was identified for the first time in an annual brassica, along with an allele disrupted by a frameshift mutation (boflc2). In a segregating F2 population derived from a cross between late-flowering (BoFLC2) and early-flowering (boflc2) lines, this gene behaved in a dosage-dependent manner and accounted for up to 65% of flowering time variation. Transcription of BoFLC genes was reduced by vernalization, with the floral integrator BoFT responding inversely. Overall expression of BoFT was significantly higher in early-flowering boflc2 lines, supporting the idea that BoFLC2 plays a key role in maintaining the vegetative state. A homologue of Arabidopsis VIN3 was isolated for the first time in a brassica crop species and was up-regulated by two days of vernalization, in contrast to findings in Arabidopsis where prolonged exposure to cold was required to elicit up-regulation. The correlations observed between gene expression and flowering time in controlled-environment experiments were validated with gene expression analyses of cauliflowers grown outdoors under 'natural' vernalizing conditions, indicating potential for transcript levels of flowering genes to form the basis of predictive assays for curd initiation and flowering time.
Resumo:
Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.
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AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.
Resumo:
Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .