20 resultados para Mixed-effect models


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In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

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The present experiment was conducted to determine the efficiency of microbial protein production in the rumen and intake by cattle fed high-molasses diets. Intake and microbial crude protein (MCP) production were measured along with the concentration of rumen ammonia-nitrogen (N) and volatile fatty acids (VFA), pH and the rate of digestion of roughage in the rumen. Eight Brahman crossbred steers weighing 211 ± 19.3 (± s.d.) kg were used in a double 4 × 4 Latin square design. Steers were allocated to one of four total mixed rations: control (pangola hay only), 25M (25% molasses/urea mix + 75% hay), 50M (50% molasses/urea + 50% hay), and 75M (75% molasses/urea + 25% hay). The production and efficiency of production of MCP (EMCP) of the diet increased quadratically as the level of molasses in the diet increased. The EMCP from the molasses/urea mix was estimated as 166 g MCP/kg digestible organic matter (DOM), a relatively high value. Intake of dry matter (DM) and DOM increased quadratically, reaching a peak when molasses was ~50% (as fed) of the ration. Digestibility of DM increased quadratically and that of neutral detergent fibre decreased linearly with increasing level of molasses in the diet. Molasses inclusion in the diet had no effect on rumen pH, ammonia and VFA concentration in the rumen fluid, plasma urea-N, urine pH or ruminal fractional outflow rate of ytterbium-labelled particles and Cr-EDTA. It was concluded that a diet with a high level of molasses (>50%) and supplemented with adequate N had high EMCP, and that low MCP production was not a factor limiting intake or performance of cattle consuming high-molasses diets.

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The present experiment was conducted to determine the efficiency of microbial protein production in the rumen and intake by cattle fed high-molasses diets. Intake and microbial crude protein (MCP) production were measured along with the concentration of rumen ammonia-nitrogen (N) and volatile fatty acids (VFA), pH and the rate of digestion of roughage in the rumen. Eight Brahman crossbred steers weighing 211 ± 19.3 (± s.d.) kg were used in a double 4 x 4 Latin square design. Steers were allocated to one of four total mixed rations: control (pangola hay only), 25M (25% molasses/urea mix + 75% hay), 50M (50% molasses/urea + 50% hay), and 75M (75% molasses/urea + 25% hay). The production and efficiency of production of MCP (EMCP) of the diet increased quadratically as the level of molasses in the diet increased. The EMCP from the molasses/urea mix was estimated as 166 g MCP/kg digestible organic matter (DOM), a relatively high value. Intake of dry matter (DM) and DOM increased quadratically, reaching a peak when molasses was ∼50% (as fed) of the ration. Digestibility of DM increased quadratically and that of neutral detergent fibre decreased linearly with increasing level of molasses in the diet. Molasses inclusion in the diet had no effect on rumen pH, ammonia and VFA concentration in the rumen fluid, plasma urea-N, urine pH or ruminal fractional outflow rate of ytterbium-labelled particles and Cr-EDTA. It was concluded that a diet with a high level of molasses (>50%) and supplemented with adequate N had high EMCP, and that low MCP production was not a factor limiting intake or performance of cattle consuming high-molasses diets.

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AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

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Bats of the genus Pteropus (flying-foxes) are the natural host of Hendra virus (HeV) which periodically causes fatal disease in horses and humans in Australia. The increased urban presence of flying-foxes often provokes negative community sentiments because of reduced social amenity and concerns of HeV exposure risk, and has resulted in calls for the dispersal of urban flying-fox roosts. However, it has been hypothesised that disturbance of urban roosts may result in a stress-mediated increase in HeV infection in flying-foxes, and an increased spillover risk. We sought to examine the impact of roost modification and dispersal on HeV infection dynamics and cortisol concentration dynamics in flying-foxes. The data were analysed in generalised linear mixed models using restricted maximum likelihood (REML). The difference in mean HeV prevalence in samples collected before (4.9%), during (4.7%) and after (3.4%) roost disturbance was small and non-significant (P = 0.440). Similarly, the difference in mean urine specific gravity-corrected urinary cortisol concentrations was small and non-significant (before = 22.71 ng/mL, during = 27.17, after = 18.39) (P= 0.550). We did find an underlying association between cortisol concentration and season, and cortisol concentration and region, suggesting that other (plausibly biological or environmental) variables play a role in cortisol concentration dynamics. The effect of roost disturbance on cortisol concentration approached statistical significance for region, suggesting that the relationship is not fixed, and plausibly reflecting the nature and timing of disturbance. We also found a small positive statistical association between HeV excretion status and urinary cortisol concentration. Finally, we found that the level of flying-fox distress associated with roost disturbance reflected the nature and timing of the activity, highlighting the need for a ‘best practice’ approach to dispersal or roost modification activities. The findings usefully inform public discussion and policy development in relation to Hendra virus and flying-fox management.