Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Soil N availability, rather than N deposition, controls indirect N2O emissions

Ammonia volatilised and re-deposited to the landscape is an indirect N2O emission source. This study established a relationship between N2O emissions, low magnitude NH4 deposition (0–30  kg N ha − 1 ), and soil moisture content in two soils using in-vessel incubations. Emissions from the clay soil peaked ( < 0.002 g N [ g soil ] − 1 min − 1 ) from 85 to 93% WFPS (water filled pore space), increasing to a plateau as remaining mineral-N increased. Peak N2O emissions for the sandy soil were much lower ( < 5 × 10 − 5 μg N [ g soil ] − 1 min − 1 ) and occurred at about 60% WFPS, with an indistinct relationship with increasing resident mineral N due to the low rate of nitrification in that soil. Microbial community and respiration data indicated that the clay soil was dominated by denitrifiers and was more biologically active than the sandy soil. However, the clay soil also had substantial nitrifier communities even under peak emission conditions. A process-based mathematical denitrification model was well suited to the clay soil data where all mineral-N was assumed to be nitrified ( R 2 = 90 % ), providing a substrate for denitrification. This function was not well suited to the sandy soil where nitrification was much less complete. A prototype relationship representing mineral-N pool conversions (NO3− and NH4+) was proposed based on time, pool concentrations, moisture relationships, and soil rate constants (preliminary testing only). A threshold for mineral-N was observed: emission of N2O did not occur from the clay soil for mineral-N <70 mg ( kg of soil ) − 1 , suggesting that soil N availability controls indirect N2O emissions. This laboratory process investigation challenges the IPCC approach which predicts indirect emissions from atmospheric N deposition alone.

Clays Can Decrease Gaseous Nutrient Losses from Soil-Applied Livestock Manures

Clays could underpin a viable agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technology given their affinity for nitrogen and carbon compounds. We provide the first investigation into the efficacy of clays to decrease agricultural nitrogen GHG emissions (i.e., N2O and NH3). Via laboratory experiments using an automated closed-vessel analysis system, we tested the capacity of two clays (vermiculite and bentonite) to decrease N2O and NH3 emissions and organic carbon losses from livestock manures (beef, pig, poultry, and egg layer) incorporated into an agricultural soil. Clay addition levels varied, with a maximum of 1:1 to manure (dry weight). Cumulative gas emissions were modeled using the biological logistic function, with 15 of 16 treatments successfully fitted (P < 0.05) by this model. When assessing all of the manures together, NH3 emissions were lower (×2) at the highest clay addition level compared with no clay addition, but this difference was not significant (P = 0.17). Nitrous oxide emissions were significantly lower (×3; P < 0.05) at the highest clay addition level compared with no clay addition. When assessing manures individually, we observed generally decreasing trends in NH3 and N2O emissions with increasing clay addition, albeit with widely varying statistical significance between manure types. Most of the treatments also showed strong evidence of increased C retention with increasing clay additions, with up to 10 times more carbon retained in treatments containing clay compared with treatments containing no clay. This preliminary assessment of the efficacy of clays to mitigate agricultural GHG emissions indicates strong promise.