Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Non-target species interaction with sodium fluoroacetate (1080) meat bait for controlling feral pigs (Sus scrofa)

Fresh meat baits containing sodium fluoroacetate (1080) are widely used for controlling feral pigs in Queensland, but there is a potential poisoning risk to non-target species. This study investigated the non-target species interactions with meat bait by comparing the time until first approach, investigation, sample and consumption, and whether dying bait green would reduce interactions. A trial assessing species interactions with undyed bait was completed at Culgoa Floodplain National Park, Queensland. Meat baits were monitored for 79 consecutive days with camera traps. Of 40 baits, 100% were approached, 35% investigated (moved) and 25% sampled, and 25% consumed. Monitors approached (P < 0.05) and investigated (P < 0.05) the bait more rapidly than pigs or birds, but the median time until first sampling was not significantly different (P > 0.05), and did not consume any entire bait. A trial was conducted at Whetstone State Forest, southern Queensland, with green-dyed and undyed baits monitored for eight consecutive days with cameras. Of 60 baits, 92% were approached and also investigated by one or more non-target species. Most (85%) were sampled and 57% were consumed, with monitors having slightly more interaction with undyed baits than with green-dyed baits. Mean time until first approach and sample differed significantly between species groups (P = 0.038 and 0.007 respectively) with birds approaching sooner (P < 0.05) and monitors sampling later (P < 0.05) than other (unknown) species (P > 0.05). Undyed bait was sampled earlier (mean 2.19 days) than green-dyed bait (2.7 days) (P = 0.003). Data from the two trials demonstrate that many non-target species regularly visit and sample baits. The use of green-dyed baits may help reduce non-target uptake, but testing is required to determine the effect on attractiveness to feral pigs. Further research is recommended to quantify the benefits of potential strategies to reduce the non-target uptake of meat baits to help improve the availability of bait to feral pigs.