Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of water quality interventions in South-East Queensland

The focus of this article is on the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies to reduce pollution loads and improve water quality in South-East Queensland. Scenarios were developed about the types of catchment interventions that could be considered, and the resulting changes in water quality indicators that may result. Once these catchment scenarios were modelled, the range of expected outcomes was assessed and the costs of mitigation interventions were estimated. Strategies considered include point and non-point source interventions. Predicted reductions in pollution levels were calculated for each action based on the expected population growth. The cost of the interventions included the full investment and annual running costs as well as planned public investment by the state agencies. Cost-effectiveness of strategies is likely to vary according to whether suspended sediments, nitrogen or phosphorus loads are being targeted.

The process for implementation of a Quality Management System within a multi-functional cereal laboratory

The intent of this study was to design, document and implement a Quality Management System (QMS) into a laboratory that incorporated both research and development (R&D) and routine analytical activities. In addition, it was necessary for the QMS to be easily and efficiently maintained to: (a) provide documented evidence that would validate the system's compliance with a certifiable standard, (b) fit the purpose of the laboratory, (c) accommodate prevailing government policies and standards, and (d) promote positive outcomes for the laboratory through documentation and verification of the procedures and methodologies implemented. Initially, a matrix was developed that documented the standards' requirements and the necessary steps to be made to meet those requirements. The matrix provided a check mechanism on the progression of the system's development. In addition, it was later utilised in the Quality Manual as a reference tool for the location of full procedures documented elsewhere in the system. The necessary documentation to build and monitor the system consisted of a series of manuals along with forms that provided auditable evidence of the workings of the QMS. Quality Management (QM), in one form or another, has been in existence since the early 1900's. However, the question still remains: is it a good thing or just a bugbear? Many of the older style systems failed because they were designed by non-users, fiercely regulatory, restrictive and generally deemed to be an imposition. It is now considered important to foster a sense of ownership of the system by the people who use the system. The system's design must be tailored to best fit the purpose of the operations of the facility if maximum benefits to the organisation are to be gained.

Developing improved supply chains for temperate fruits in transitional Asian economies of Thailand and Vietnam.

Asia's increasing demand for both tropical and temperate fruit is projected to grow significantly. Compared with most developed countries, the production of temperate fruits (peach, nectarine, plum and apple) has expanded rapidly in China over the past 20 years. In contrast, current production of plums and peaches in neighbouring countries (Thailand and Vietnam) is very low but their fruit enters the market earlier. Thailand and Vietnam have enormous potential to satisfy a market window in the northern hemisphere period from March to May inclusive when there is little or no stone fruit on the Asian market. In Vietnam, fruit is harvested in an immature state to avoid disease and fruit fly problems and consequently lacks size and flavour. Approximately 30-40% of locally produced fruit in Vietnam does not reach market due to disease and poor handling during picking and transport. In Thailand, much of the infrastructure needed to transport, store, process and market temperate fruits successfully are now in place. However, there are currently no cool chain management or quality assurance systems to ensure a fresh product reaches the consumer with minimal deterioration. In Vietnam, growing stone fruit under the traditional system with little or minimal inputs, the farmer may receive between AUD3,000-5,000 per ha. In comparison, under higher input systems incorporating fertiliser, irrigation and pest and disease management, net returns can be increased seven-fold. Strengths and weaknesses of the current supply chains in these two countries are discussed.

Runoff, sediment loss and water quality from forest roads in a southeast Queensland coastal plain Pinus plantation

Runoff and sediment loss from forest roads were monitored for a two-year period in a Pinus plantation in southeast Queensland. Two classes of road were investigated: a gravelled road, which is used as a primary daily haulage route for the logging area, and an ungravelled road, which provides the main access route for individual logging compartments and is intensively used as a haulage route only during the harvest of these areas (approximately every 30 years). Both roads were subjected to routine traffic loads and maintenance during the study. Surface runoff in response to natural rainfall was measured and samples taken for the determination of sediment and nutrient (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and total iron) loads from each road. Results revealed that the mean runoff coefficient (runoff depth/rainfall depth) was consistently higher from the gravelled road plot with 0.57, as compared to the ungravelled road with 0.38. Total sediment loss over the two-year period was greatest from the gravelled road plot at 5.7 t km−1 compared to the ungravelled road plot with 3.9 t km−1. Suspended solids contributed 86% of the total sediment loss from the gravelled road, and 72% from the ungravelled road over the two years. Nitrogen loads from the two roads were both relatively constant throughout the study, and averaged 5.2 and 2.9 kg km−1 from the gravelled and ungravelled road, respectively. Mean annual phosphorus loads were 0.6 kg km−1 from the gravelled road and 0.2 kg km−1 from the ungravelled road. Organic carbon and total iron loads increased in the second year of the study, which was a much wetter year, and are thought to reflect the breakdown of organic matter in roadside drains and increased sediment generation, respectively. When road and drain maintenance (grading) was performed runoff and sediment loss were increased from both road types. Additionally, the breakdown of the gravel road base due to high traffic intensity during wet conditions resulted in the formation of deep (10 cm) ruts which increased erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP):Road model was used to compare predicted to observed runoff and sediment loss from the two road classes investigated. For individual rainfall events, WEPP:Road predicted output showed strong agreement with observed values of runoff and sediment loss. WEPP:Road predictions for annual sediment loss from the entire forestry road network in the study area also showed reasonable agreement with the extrapolated observed values.

Assessing for genetic and environmental effects on ruminant feed quality in barley ( Hordeum vulgare )

Grain samples from a combined intermediate and advanced stage barley breeding trial series, grown at two sites in two consecutive years were assessed for detailed grain quality and ruminant feed quality. The results indicated that there were significant genetic and environmental effects for “feed” traits as measured using grain hardness, acid detergent fibre (ADF), starch and in-sacco dry matter digestibility (ISDMD) assays. In addition, there was strong genotypic discrimination for the regressed feed performance traits, namely Net Energy (NE) and Average Daily Gain (ADG). There was considerable variation in genetic correlations for all traits based on variance from the cultivars used, sites or laboratory processing effects. There was a high level of heritability ranging from 89% to 88% for retention, 60% to 80% for protein and 56% to 68% for ADF. However, there were only low to moderate levels of heritability for the feed traits, with starch 30–39%, ISDMD 55–63%, ADF 56–68%, particle size 47–73%, 31–48% NE and ADG 44–51%. These results suggest that there were real differences in the feed performance of barleys and that selection for cattle feed quality is potentially a viable option for breeding programs.

Genetic Impacts of the Hull on Barley Grain Quality

Barley hull plays an important role in malt and feed quality and processing. In this study we measured the variation in hull con-tent along with other grain quality traits namely, kernel discolouration and degree of pre-harvest sprouting, in a single map-ping population. There were significant (p < 0.05) genetic as well as environment effects. In addition, heritability was calculated for hull content to be 29% and 47% for two years’ data. From the analysis, major QTL markers were identified in con-trolling the expression of hull content on chromosomes 2 (2H), and 6 (6H) with significant (P < 0.05) LOD scores of 5.4 and 3.46 respectively. Minor QTLs were identified on 1 (7H), 4 (4H), 5 (1H) and 7 (5H). The region at marker Bmac310 on 4(4H) could be associated with dormancy gene SD4. A number of the QTLs also coincided with regions for either kernel discolouration or preharvest sprouting resistance (dormancy). The results indicate that variation exists for hull content, which is influenced by both growing environment as well as genetically, although the genetic variance explained less than half of the total variance. Further, hull content also impacts on other grain quality attributes including dormancy, sprouting resistance and kernel appearance.

Relationship Between Hardness Genes and Quality in Barley (Hordeum vulgare)

Barley (Hordeum vulgare) genotypes were sequenced for polymorphism in the hardness genes, these being the three hordoindoline (hin a, hin b1 and hin b2) genes. The variation in haplotype was determined by sequencing for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Polymorphism between each gene was then compared to grain hardness (three methods), malt quality characteristics (hot water extract and friability) and cattle feed quality. Two haplotypes were found in a set of forty barley genotypes. For hin a, two alleles were present, namely hin a1 and hin a2. However, there was no specific hin a allele that was associated with grain hardness, malt and feed quality. Barley has two hin b genes, namely hin b1 and hin b2, and the genotypes tested here had one of two alleles for each gene. However, there were no obvious effects on hardness or quality from either of these hin b alleles. Unlike wheat, where a clear relationship has been demonstrated between a number of SNPs in the wheat hardness genes and quality (soft or hard wheat), there was no such relationship for barley. Despite the wide range in hardness, malt and feed quality, there were only two haplotypes for each of the hin a, hin b1 and hin b2 genes and there was no clear relationship between grain hardness, malt or feed quality. The genotypes used in this study demonstrated that there was a low level of polymorphism in hardness genes in current commercial varieties as well as breeding lines and these polymorphisms had no impact on quality.

Non-destructive assessment of Arundo donax (Poaceae) leaf quality

Leaf carbon (C) content, leaf nitrogen (N) content, and C:N ratio are especially useful for understanding plant-herbivore interactions and may be important in developing control methods for the invasive riparian plant Arundo donax L. We measured C content, N content, C:N ratio, and chlorophyll index (SPAD 502 reading) for 768 leaves from A. donax collected over a five year period at several locations in California, Nevada, and Texas. Leaf N was more variable than leaf C, and thus we developed a linear regression equation for estimating A. donax leaf N from the leaf chlorophyll index (SPAD reading). When applied to two independent data sets, the equation (leaf N content % = -0.63 + 0.08 x SPAD) produced realistic estimates that matched seasonal and spatial trends reported from a natural A. donax population. Used in conjunction with the handheld SPAD 502 meter, the equation provides a rapid, non-destructive method for estimating A. donax leaf quality.

Diet quality and liveweight gain of steers grazing Leucaena-grass pasture estimated with faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (F.NIRS)

Three drafts of Bos indicus cross steers (initially 178-216 kg) grazed Leucaena-grass pasture [Leucaena leucocephala subspecies glabrata cv. Cunningham with green panic (Panicum maximum cv. trichoglume)] from late winter through to autumn during three consecutive years in the Burnett region of south-east Queensland. Measured daily weight gain (DWGActual) of the steers was generally 0.7-1.1 kg/day during the summer months. Estimated intakes of metabolisable energy and dry matter (DM) were calculated from feeding standards as the intakes required by the steers to grow at the DWGActual. Diet attributes were predicted from near infrared reflectance spectroscopy spectra of faeces (F.NIRS) using established calibration equations appropriate for northern Australian forages. Inclusion of some additional reference samples from cattle consuming Leucaena diets into F.NIRS calibrations based on grass and herbaceous legume-grass pastures improved prediction of the proportion of Leucaena in the diet. Mahalanobis distance values supported the hypothesis that the F.NIRS predictions of diet crude protein concentration and DM digestibility (DMD) were acceptable. F.NIRS indicated that the percentage of Leucaena in the diet varied widely (10-99%). Diet crude protein concentration and DMD were usually high, averaging 12.4 and 62%, respectively, and were related asymptotically to the percentage of Leucaena in the diet (R2 = 0.48 and 0.33, respectively). F.NIRS calibrations for DWG were not satisfactory to predict this variable from an individual faecal sample since the s.e. of prediction were 0.33-0.40 kg/day. Cumulative steer liveweight (LW) predicted from F.NIRS DWG calibrations, which had been previously developed with tropical grass and grass-herbaceous legume pastures, greatly overestimated the measured steer LW; therefore, these calibrations were not useful. Cumulative steer LW predicted from a modified F.NIRS DWG calibration, which included data from the present study, was strongly correlated (R2 = 0.95) with steer LW but overestimated LW by 19-31 kg after 8 months. Additional reference data are needed to develop robust F.NIRS calibrations to encompass the diversity of Leucaena pastures of northern Australia. In conclusion, the experiment demonstrated that F.NIRS could improve understanding of diet quality and nutrient intake of cattle grazing Leucaena-grass pasture, and the relationships between nutrient supply and cattle growth.

Between-tree variation in fruit quality and fruit mineral concentrations of Hass avocados

Inconsistent internal fruit quality in Hass avocados affects consumer confidence. To determine the influence of individual trees on fruit quality, Hass avocado fruit were harvested from adjacent trees of similar external appearance in 3 commercial orchards in 1998 and 1 orchard in 1999. The trees in each orchard were grown with similar commercial practices and in similar soil types. Within each location, there were significant (P<0.05) differences in the mean ripe fruit quality between trees with respect to fruit body rot severity (mainly anthracnose) with and without cold storage, internal disorders severity due to diffuse discolouration and vascular browning (after cold storage), days to ripen, percentage dry matter, and the percentage of the skin area with purple-black colour when ripe. These effects were also noted in the same orchard in 1999. There were significant (P<0.05) differences in fruit flesh calcium, magnesium, potassium, boron and zinc concentrations between trees. Significant (P<0.05) correlations were observed between average fruit mineral concentrations in each tree (particularly calcium, magnesium and potassium) and body rot severity, percentage dry matter and fruit mass. There was little conclusive evidence that characteristics such as the growth of the non-suberised roots or the degree of scion under- or overgrowth was involved in these tree effects; however, differences between trees with respect to other rootstock characteristics may be involved. The inconsistency of the correlations across sites and years suggested that other factors apart from tree influences could also affect the relationship between fruit minerals and fruit quality.

Value-adding Australian sardines: Factors affecting rates of deterioration in sardine (Sardinops sagax) quality during post-harvest handling

Deficiencies in sardine post-harvest handling methods were seen as major impediments to development of a value-adding sector supplying Australian bait and human consumption markets. Factors affecting sardine deterioration rates in the immediate post-harvest period were investigated and recommendations made for alternative handling procedures to optimise sardine quality. Net to factory sampling showed that post-mortem autolysis was probably caused by digestive enzyme activity contributing to the observed temporal increase in sardine Quality Index. Belly burst was not an issue. Sardine quality could be maintained by reducing tank loading, and rapid temperature reduction using dedicated, on-board value-adding tanks. Fish should be iced between the jetty and the processing factory, and transport bins chilled using an efficient cooling medium such as flow ice.

Effect of defoliation interval and height on the growth and quality of Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo

The effect of defoliation on Amarillo (Arachis pintoi cv. Amarillo) was studied in a glasshouse and in mixed swards with 2 tropical grasses. In the glasshouse, Amarillo plants grown in pots were subjected to a 30/20°C or 25/15°C temperature regime and to defoliation at 10-, 20- or 30-day intervals for 60 days. Two field plot studies were conducted on Amarillo with either irrigated kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) in autumn and spring or dryland Pioneer rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) over summer and autumn. Treatments imposed were 3 defoliation intervals (7, 14 and 28 days) and 2 residual heights (5 and 10 cm for kikuyu; 3 and 10 cm for rhodes grass) with extra treatments (56 days to 3 cm for both grasses and 21 days to 5 cm for kikuyu). Defoliation interval had no significant effect on accumulated Amarillo leaf dry matter (DM) at either temperature regime. At the higher temperature, frequent defoliation reduced root dry weight (DW) and increased crude protein (CP) but had no effect on stolon DW or in vitro organic matter digestibility (OMD). On the other hand, at the lower temperature, frequent defoliation reduced stolon DW and increased OMD but had no effect on root DW or CP. Irrespective of temperaure and defoliation, water-soluble carbohydrate levels were higher in stolons than in roots (4.70 vs 3.65%), whereas for starch the reverse occured (5.37 vs 9.44%). Defoliating the Amarillo-kikuyu sward once at 56 days to 3 cm produced the highest DM yield in autumn and sprong (582 and 7121 kg/ha DM, respectively), although the Amarillo component and OMD were substantially reduced. Highest DM yields (1726 kg/ha) were also achieved in the Amarillo-rhodes grass sward when defoliated every 56 days to 3 cm, although the Amarillo component was unaffected. In a mixed sward with either kikuyu or rhodes grass, the Amarillo component in the sward was maintained up to a 28-day defoliation interval and was higher when more severely defoliated. The results show that Amarillo can tolerate frequent defoliation and that it can co-exist with tropical grasses of differing growth habits, provided the Amarillo-tropical grass sward is subject to frequent and severe defoliation.

Regrouping unfamiliar animals in the weeks prior to slaughter has few effects on physiology and meat quality in Bos taurus feedlot steers

The response of cattle to alterations in social groupings can lead to physiological changes that affect meat quality. Feedlot practices frequently lead to a proportion of cattle in a pen being drafted for slaughter with the balance retained for a further period until they meet market specifications. An ability to regroup such retained cattle for short periods without consequences for meat quality would facilitate efficient use of feedlot pen space. The current experiment examined the impact on physiological variables and meat quality of regrouped British breed steers 4, 2 or 1 week before dispatch for slaughter. There was little effect of regrouping cattle on physiological variables associated with stress responses. Physical assessment of meat quality indicated that regrouping steers 1 week before slaughter led to higher compression and a tendency for higher peak force values in animals from one genotype than in their respective controls (1.89 v. 1.71 ± 0.05 kg, P = 0.017); however, these assessments were not matched by changes in sensory perception of meat quality. Average daily gain during feedlot finishing was negatively related to the temperament measure and flight time. It was also associated with breed, white cell count, plasma cortisol and haemoglobin at the midpoint of the 70-day finishing period. The results confirm the impact of flight time on growth rate during feedlot finishing and that regrouping cattle less than 2 weeks before slaughter may reduce meat quality.

A systems evaluation of high-input management using fortified molasses for beef production in Australia's dry tropics

The potential of beef producers to profitably produce 500-kg steers at 2.5 years of age in northern Australia's dry tropics to meet specifications of high-value markets, using a high-input management (HIM) system was examined. HIM included targeted high levels of fortified molasses supplementation, short seasonal mating and the use of growth promotants. Using herds of 300-400 females plus steer progeny at three sites, HIM was compared at a business level to prevailing best-practice, strategic low-input management (SLIM) in which there is a relatively low usage of energy concentrates to supplement pasture intake. The data presented for each breeding-age cohort within management system at each site includes: annual pregnancy rates (range: 14-99%), time of conception, mortalities (range: 0-10%), progeny losses between confirmed pregnancy and weaning (range: 0-29%), and weaning rates (range: 14-92%) over the 2-year observation. Annual changes in weight and relative net worth were calculated for all breeding and non-breeding cohorts. Reasons for outcomes are discussed. Compared with SLIM herds, both weaning weights and annual growth were >= 30 kg higher, enabling 86-100% of HIM steers to exceed 500 kg at 2.5 years of age. Very few contemporary SLIM steers reached this target. HIM was most profitably applied to steers. Where HIM was able to achieve high pregnancy rates in yearlings, its application was recommended in females. Well managed, appropriate HIM systems increased profits by around $15/adult equivalent at prevailing beef and supplement prices. However, a 20% supplement price rise without a commensurate increase in values for young slaughter steers would generally eliminate this advantage. This study demonstrated the complexity of pro. table application of research outcomes to commercial business, even when component research suggests that specific strategies may increase growth and reproductive efficiency and/or be more pro. table. Because of the higher level of management required, higher costs and returns, and higher susceptibility to market changes and disease, HIM systems should only be applied after SLIM systems are well developed. To increase profitability, any strategy must ultimately either increase steer growth and sale values and/or enable a shift to high pregnancy rates in yearling heifers.