Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Natural host range, thrips and seed transmission of distinct Tobacco streak virus strains in Queensland, Australia

Diseases caused by Tobacco streak virus (TSV) have resulted in significant crop losses in sunflower and mung bean crops in Australia. Two genetically distinct strains from central Queensland, TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, have been previously described. They share only 81% total-genome nucleotide sequence identity and have distinct major alternative hosts, Parthenium hysterophorus (parthenium) and Verbesina encelioides (crownbeard). We developed and used strain-specific multiplex Polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) for the three RNA segments of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard to accurately characterise the strains naturally infecting 41 hosts species. Hosts included species from 11 plant families, including 12 species endemic to Australia. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was both a natural host of, and experimentally infected by TSV-parthenium but this infection combination resulted in non-viable seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. TSV-crownbeard was seed transmitted from naturally infected crownbeard at a rate of between 5% and 50% and was closely associated with the geographical distribution of crownbeard in central Queensland. TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard were also seed transmitted in experimentally infected ageratum (Ageratum houstonianum) at rates of up to 40% and 27%, respectively. The related subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus, was also seed transmitted at a rate of 18% in ageratum which is its major alternative host. Thrips species Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis were commonly found in flowers of TSV-affected crops and nearby weed hosts. Both species readily transmitted TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. The results are discussed in terms of how two genetically and biologically distinct TSV strains have similar life cycle strategies in the same environment.

Epidemiology and genetic diversity of Tobacco streak virus and related subgroup 1 ilarviruses

A quarter of Australia’s sunflower production is from the central highlands region of Queensland and is currently worth six million dollars ($AUD) annually. From the early 2000s a severe necrosis disorder of unknown aetiology was affecting large areas of sunflower crops in central Queensland, leading to annual losses of up to 20%. Other crops such as mung bean and cotton were also affected. This PhD study was undertaken to determine if the causal agent of the necrosis disorder was of viral origin and, if so, to characterise its genetic diversity, biology and disease cycle, and to develop effective control strategies. The research described in this thesis identified Tobacco streak virus (TSV; genus Ilarvirus, family Bromoviridae) as the causal agent of the previously unidentified necrosis disorder of sunflower in central Queensland. TSV was also the cause of commonly found diseases in a range of other crops in the same region including cotton, chickpea and mung bean. This was the first report from Australia of natural field infections of TSV from these four crops. TSV strains have previously been reported from other regions of Australia in several hosts based on serological and host range studies. In order to determine the relatedness of previously reported TSV strains with TSV from central Queensland, we characterised the genetic diversity of the known TSV strains from Australia. We identified two genetically distinct TSV strains from central Queensland and named them based on their major alternative hosts, TSV-parthenium from Parthenium hysterophorus and TSV-crownbeard from Verbesina encelioides. They share only 81 % total-genome nucleotide sequence identity. In addition to TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard from central Queensland, we also described the complete genomes of two other ilarvirus species. This proved that previously reported TSV strains, TSV-S isolated from strawberry and TSV-Ag from Ageratum houstonianum, were actually the first record of Strawberry necrotic shock virus from Australia, and a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus. Our results confirmed that the TSV strains found in central Queensland were not related to previously described strains from Australia and may represent new incursions. This is the first report of the genetic diversity within subgroup 1 ilarviruses from Australia. Based on field observations we hypothesised that parthenium and crownbeard were acting as symptomless hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, respectively. We developed strain-specific multiplex PCRs for the three RNA segments to accurately characterise the range of naturally infected hosts across central Queensland. Results described in this thesis show compelling evidence that parthenium and crownbeard are the major (symptomless) alternative hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. While both TSV strains had wide natural host ranges, the geographical distribution of each strain was closely associated with the respective distribution of their major alternative hosts. Both TSV strains were commonly found across large areas of central Queensland, but we only found strong evidence for the TSV-parthenium strain being associated with major disease outbreaks in nearby crops. The findings from this study demonstrate that both TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard have similar life cycles but some critical differences. We found both TSV strains to be highly seed transmitted from their respective major alternative hosts from naturally infected mother plants and survived in seed for more than 2 years. We conclusively demonstrated that both TSV strains were readily transmitted via virus-infected pollen taken from the major alternative hosts. This transmission was facilitated by the most commonly collected thrips species, Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis. These results illustrate the importance of seed transmission and efficient thrips vector species for the effective survival of these TSV strains in an often harsh environment and enables the rapid development of TSV disease epidemics in surrounding crops. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was naturally infected by, and an experimental host of TSV-parthenium. However, this infection combination resulted in non-viable crownbeard seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. Based on our field observations we hypothesised that there were differences in relative tolerance to TSV infection between different sunflower hybrids and that seasonal variation in disease levels was related to rainfall in the critical early crop stage. Results from our field trials conducted over multiple years conclusively demonstrated significant differences in tolerance to natural infections of TSV-parthenium in a wide range of sunflower hybrids. Glasshouse tests indicate the resistance to TSV-parthenium identified in the sunflower hybrids is also likely to be effective against TSV-crownbeard. We found a significant negative association between TSV disease incidence in sunflowers and accumulated rainfall in the months of March and April with increasing rainfall resulting in reduced levels of disease. Our results indicate that the use of tolerant sunflower germplasm will be a critical strategy to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower.

Genetic diversity and epidemiology of Tobacco streak virus and related subgroup 1 Ilarviruses

A quarter of Australia’s sunflower production is from the central highlands region of Queensland and is currently worth six million dollars ($AUD) annually. From the early 2000s a severe necrosis disorder of unknown aetiology was affecting large areas of sunflower crops in central Queensland, leading to annual losses of up to 20%. Other crops such as mung bean and cotton were also affected. This PhD study was undertaken to determine if the causal agent of the necrosis disorder was of viral origin and, if so, to characterise its genetic diversity, biology and disease cycle, and to develop effective control strategies. The research described in this thesis identified Tobacco streak virus (TSV; genus Ilarvirus, family Bromoviridae) as the causal agent of the previously unidentified necrosis disorder of sunflower in central Queensland. TSV was also the cause of commonly found diseases in a range of other crops in the same region including cotton, chickpea and mung bean. This was the first report from Australia of natural field infections of TSV from these four crops. TSV strains have previously been reported from other regions of Australia in several hosts based on serological and host range studies. In order to determine the relatedness of previously reported TSV strains with TSV from central Queensland, we characterised the genetic diversity of the known TSV strains from Australia. We identified two genetically distinct TSV strains from central Queensland and named them based on their major alternative hosts, TSV-parthenium from Parthenium hysterophorus and TSV-crownbeard from Verbesina encelioides. They share only 81 % total-genome nucleotide sequence identity. In addition to TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard from central Queensland, we also described the complete genomes of two other ilarvirus species. This proved that previously reported TSV strains, TSV-S isolated from strawberry and TSV-Ag from Ageratum houstonianum, were actually the first record of Strawberry necrotic shock virus from Australia, and a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus. Our results confirmed that the TSV strains found in central Queensland were not related to previously described strains from Australia and may represent new incursions. This is the first report of the genetic diversity within subgroup 1 ilarviruses from Australia. Based on field observations we hypothesised that parthenium and crownbeard were acting as symptomless hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, respectively. We developed strain-specific multiplex PCRs for the three RNA segments to accurately characterise the range of naturally infected hosts across central Queensland. Results described in this thesis show compelling evidence that parthenium and crownbeard are the major (symptomless) alternative hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. While both TSV strains had wide natural host ranges, the geographical distribution of each strain was closely associated with the respective distribution of their major alternative hosts. Both TSV strains were commonly found across large areas of central Queensland, but we only found strong evidence for the TSV-parthenium strain being associated with major disease outbreaks in nearby crops. The findings from this study demonstrate that both TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard have similar life cycles but some critical differences. We found both TSV strains to be highly seed transmitted from their respective major alternative hosts from naturally infected mother plants and survived in seed for more than 2 years. We conclusively demonstrated that both TSV strains were readily transmitted via virus-infected pollen taken from the major alternative hosts. This transmission was facilitated by the most commonly collected thrips species, Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis. These results illustrate the importance of seed transmission and efficient thrips vector species for the effective survival of these TSV strains in an often harsh environment and enables the rapid development of TSV disease epidemics in surrounding crops. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was naturally infected by, and an experimental host of TSV-parthenium. However, this infection combination resulted in non-viable crownbeard seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. Based on our field observations we hypothesised that there were differences in relative tolerance to TSV infection between different sunflower hybrids and that seasonal variation in disease levels was related to rainfall in the critical early crop stage. Results from our field trials conducted over multiple years conclusively demonstrated significant differences in tolerance to natural infections of TSV-parthenium in a wide range of sunflower hybrids. Glasshouse tests indicate the resistance to TSV-parthenium identified in the sunflower hybrids is also likely to be effective against TSV-crownbeard. We found a significant negative association between TSV disease incidence in sunflowers and accumulated rainfall in the months of March and April with increasing rainfall resulting in reduced levels of disease. Our results indicate that the use of tolerant sunflower germplasm will be a critical strategy to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower.

The status of weed biological control in Vanuatu

Biological control of weeds in Vanuatu began in 1935, with the introduction of the tingid Teleonemia scrupulosa to control Lantana camara. To date, nine biological control agents have been intentionally introduced to control eight weed species. Seven of these agents have established on their respective hosts while an eighth, Zygogramma bicolorata, an agent for Parthenium hysterophorus has only recently been released and establishment is unlikely. The fate of a ninth agent, Heteropsylla spinulosa, released for the control of Mimosa diplotricha is unclear. Six other biological control agents, including Epiblema strenuana which was first detected in 2014 on P. hysterophorus on Efate have spread into the country unintentionally. Control of the target weeds range from inadequate to very good. By far the most successful agent has been Calligrapha pantherina which was introduced to control Sida acuta and Sida rhombifolia. The beetle was released on 14 islands and managed to spread to at least another 10 islands where it has effectively controlled both Sida spp. Control of the two water weeds, Eichhornia crassipes by Neochetina bruchi and N. eichhorniae and Pistia stratiotes by Neohydronomus affinis, has also been fairly good in most areas. Two agents, T. scrupulosa and Uroplata girardi, were released on L. camara, and four other agents have been found on the weed, but L. camara is still not under adequate control. The rust Puccinia spegazzinii was first released on Mikania micrantha in 2012 and successfully established. Anecdotal evidence suggests that it is having an impact on M. micrantha, but detailed monitoring is required to determine its overall impact. Future prospects for weed biological control in Vanuatu are positive, with the expected greater spread of recently released agents and the introduction of new agents for P. hysterophorus, L. camara, Dolichandra unguis-cati and Spathodea campanulata.