Lantana (Lantana camara) Seed Bank Dynamics: Seedling Emergence and Seed Survival.

Seed persistence is poorly quantified for invasive plants of subtropical and tropical environments and Lantana camara, one of the world's worst weeds, is no exception. We investigated germination, seedling emergence, and seed survival of two lantana biotypes (Pink and pink-edged red [PER]) in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Controlled experiments were undertaken in 2002 and repeated in 2004, with treatments comprising two differing environmental regimes (irrigated and natural rainfall) and sowing depths (0 and 2 cm). Seed survival and seedling emergence were significantly affected by all factors (time, biotype, environment, sowing depth, and cohort) (P < 0.001). Seed dormancy varied with treatment (environment, sowing depth, biotype, and cohort) (P < 0.001), but declined rapidly after 6 mo. Significant differential responses by the two biotypes to sowing depth and environment were detected for both seed survival and seedling emergence (P < 0.001). Seed mass was consistently lower in the PER biotype at the population level (P < 0.001), but this variation did not adequately explain the differential responses. Moreover, under natural rainfall the magnitude of the biotype effect was unlikely to result in ecologically significant differences. Seed survival after 36 mo under natural rainfall ranged from 6.8 to 21.3%. Best fit regression analysis of the decline in seed survival over time yielded a five-parameter exponential decay model with a lower asymptote approaching −0.38 (% seed survival = [( 55 − (−0.38)) • e (k • t)] + −0.38; R2 = 88.5%; 9 df). Environmental conditions and burial affected the slope parameter or k value significantly (P < 0.01). Seed survival projections from the model were greatest for buried seeds under natural rainfall (11 yr) and least under irrigation (3 yr). Experimental data and model projections suggest that lantana has a persistent seed bank and this should be considered in management programs, particularly those aimed at eradication.

Population dynamics of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in north eastern Australia: simulated responses to control

Wild European rabbits are a serious problem to agriculture in Australia, with an estimated annual cost of A$ 113 million. Biological control agents (myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus) have caused large and sustained declines in rabbit populations throughout Australia. A simulation model incorporates these diseases as well as warren destruction as methods of controlling rabbit populations in Queensland, north eastern Australia. These diseases reduced populations by 90-99% and the combination of these and warren destruction led to 100% control in simulations at six sites across southern Queensland. Increasing monthly pasture growth by 15% had little effect on simulated populations whereas a 15% decrease reduced populations by 0-50%. An increase in temperature of 2.5 °C would lead to a 15-60% decrease in populations. These effects suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in the population of rabbits in Queensland and a retraction in the northern limit of their distribution in Australia.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum. II. Grain filling period.

Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum: I. N demand of vegetative plant parts.

Stay-green, an important trait for grain yield of sorghum grown under water limitation, has been associated with a high leaf nitrogen content at the start of grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of leaves and stems and explores effects of N stress on the N balance of vegetative plant parts of three sorghum hybrids differing in potential crop height. The hybrids were grown under well-watered conditions at three levels of N supply. Vertical profiles of biomass and N% of leaves and stems, together with leaf size and number, and specific leaf nitrogen (SLN), were measured at regular intervals. The hybrids had similar minimum but different critical and maximum SLN, associated with differences in leaf size and N partitioning, the latter associated with differences in plant height. N demand of expanding new leaves was represented by critical SLN, and structural stem N demand by minimum stem N%. The fraction of N partitioned to leaf blades increased under N stress. A framework for N dynamics of leaves and stems is developed that captures effects of N stress and genotype on N partitioning and on critical and maximum SLN.

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Impacts of grazing management options on pasture and animal productivity in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland. 2. Population dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca.

The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca populations were studied in a subset of treatments in an extensive grazing study conducted in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. These treatments were 4 stocking rates in native pasture and 2 of these stocking rates in legume oversown and supplement/spring burning treatments. For the 1999-2000 summer, population data for H. contortus in 5 of these native pasture and supplement/burning treatments were compared with those for an additional burnt treatment. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean and mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 24 to 61%. Increasing stocking rate from 5 to 2 ha/steer in native pasture reduced H. contortus plant density. Increasing stocking rate reduced seedling recruitment as a result of its effect on soil seedbanks. Seedling recruitment was the major determinant of change in plant density, although some individual H. contortus plants did survive throughout the study. Burning in spring 1999, particularly at light stocking rate, promoted seedling recruitment above that in both unburnt native and legume oversown pasture and resulted in increased H. contortus plant density. In the legume oversown treatments, S. scabra cv. Seca density increased rapidly from 15 plants/m2 in 1988 to 140 plants/m2 in 2001 following a lag phase between 1988 and 1993. This increased S. scabra density was associated with an eventual decline in H. contortus plant density through reduced seedling recruitment. It was concluded that H. contortus population density is sustainable at stocking rates of 4 and 5 ha/steer (30% pasture utilisation) and that spring burning at light stocking rate can promote H. contortus populations. Increasing densities of S. scabra need to be managed to prevent its dominance.

Optimising between and within family selection for harvest weight in prawns with restricted harvest size.

Manual grading of prawns restricts the number that can be harvested. A restricted harvest size places a limit on the opposing within family and between family sources of selection pressure. A simulation study with inbreeding constrained at 0.5% per generation, a harvest size of 2000, heritability of 0.3, common family environmental effect of 0.1, indicates that maximum response to selection could be achieved with as few as 40 families. Increasing the number of families above 80 may reduce total selection response. It is important to be aware that increasing the number of families may not always yield a greater genetic response.

A novel species of mastrevirus (family Geminiviridae) isolated from Digitaria didactyla grass from Australia.

Mastreviruses (family Geminiviridae) that infect monocotyledonous plants occur throughout the temperate and tropical regions of Asia, Africa, Europe and Australia. Despite the identification of a very diverse array of mastrevirus species whose members infect African monocots, few such species have been discovered in other parts of the world. For example, the sequence of only a single monocot-infecting mastrevirus, Chloris striate mosaic virus (CSMV), has been reported so far from Australia, even though earlier biological and serological studies suggested that other distinct mastreviruses were present. Here, we have obtained the complete nucleotide sequence of a virus from the grass Digitaria didactyla originating from Australia. Analysis of the sequence shows the virus to be a typical mastrevirus, with four open reading frames, two in each orientation, separated by two non-coding intergenic regions. Although it showed the highest levels of sequence identity to CSMV (68.7%), their sequences are sufficiently diverse for the virus to be considered a member of a new species in the genus Mastrevirus, based on the present species demarcation criteria. We propose that the name first used during the 1980s be used for this species, Digitaria didactyla striate mosaic virus (DDSMV).

Net radiation dynamics: performance of 20 daily net radiation models as related to model structure and intricacy in two climates.

We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.

The spatiotemporal dynamics of Tribolium castaneum (Herbst): adult flight and gene flow.

Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) has been used as a model organism to develop and test important ecological and evolutionary concepts and is also a major pest of grain and grain products globally. This beetle species is assumed to be a good colonizer of grain storages through anthropogenic movement of grain, and active dispersal by flight is considered unlikely. Studies using T. castaneum have therefore used confined or walking insects. We combine an ecological study of dispersal with an analysis of gene flow using microsatellites to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and adult flight of T. castaneum in an ecological landscape in eastern Australia. Flying beetles were caught in traps at grain storages and in fields at least 1 km from the nearest stored grain at regular intervals for an entire year. Significantly more beetles were trapped at storages than in fields, and almost no beetles were caught in native vegetation reserves many kilometres from the nearest stored grain. Genetic differentiation between beetles caught at storages and in fields was low, indicating that although T. castaneum is predominantly aggregated around grain storages, active dispersal takes place to the extent that significant gene flow occurs between them, mitigating founder effects and genetic drift. By combining ecological and molecular techniques, we reveal much higher levels of active dispersal through adult flight in T. castaneum than previously thought. We conclude that the implications of adult flight to previous and future studies on this model organism warrant consideration.

Impact of control strategies on bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) mortality, seedling recruitment, population dynamics, pasture yield and cost analysis

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) is an invasive weed that has the potential to greatly reduce biodiversity and pasture productivity in northern Australia’s rangelands. This paper reports an approach to develop best practice options for controlling medium to dense infestations of bellyache bush using combinations of control methods. The efficacy of five single treatments including foliar spraying, slashing, stick raking, burning and do nothing (control) were compared against 15 combinations of these treatments over 4 successive years. Treatments were evaluated using several attributes, including plant mortality, changes in population demographics, seedling recruitment, pasture yield and cost of treatment. Foliar spraying once each year for 4 years proved the most cost-effective control strategy, with no bellyache bush plants recorded at the end of the study. Single applications of slashing, stick raking and to a lesser extent burning, when followed up with foliar spraying also led to significantly reduced densities of bellyache bush and changed the population from a growing one to a declining one. Total experimental cost estimates over 4 successive years for treatments where burning, stick raking, foliar spraying, and slashing were followed with foliar spraying were AU$408, AU$584, AU$802 and AU$789 ha–1, respectively. Maximum pasture yield of 5.4 t ha–1 occurred with repeated foliar spraying. This study recommends that treatment combinations using either foliar spraying alone or as a follow up with slashing, stick raking or burning are best practice options following consideration of the level of control, changes in pasture yield and cost effectiveness.

Satellite Telemetry and Long-Range Bat Movements.

Background: Understanding the long-distance movement of bats has direct relevance to studies of population dynamics, ecology, disease emergence, and conservation. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed and trialed several collar and platform terminal transmitter (PTT) combinations on both free-living and captive fruit bats (Family Pteropodidae: Genus Pteropus). We examined transmitter weight, size, profile and comfort as key determinants of maximized transmitter activity. We then tested the importance of bat-related variables (species size/weight, roosting habitat and behavior) and environmental variables (day-length, rainfall pattern) in determining optimal collar/PTT configuration. We compared battery- and solar-powered PTT performance in various field situations, and found the latter more successful in maintaining voltage on species that roosted higher in the tree canopy, and at lower density, than those that roost more densely and lower in trees. Finally, we trialed transmitter accuracy, and found that actual distance errors and Argos location class error estimates were in broad agreement. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that no single collar or transmitter design is optimal for all bat species, and that species size/weight, species ecology and study objectives are key design considerations. Our study provides a strategy for collar and platform choice that will be applicable to a larger number of bat species as transmitter size and weight continue to decrease in the future.

Telomere dynamics in the Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata): an investigation into the effects of age, tissue type, location and time of sampling.

Telomere length has been purported as a biomarker for age and could offer a non-lethal method for determining the age of wild-caught individuals. Molluscs, including oysters and abalone, are the basis of important fisheries globally and have been problematic to accurately age. To determine whether telomere length could provide an alternative means of ageing molluscs, we evaluated the relationship between telomere length and age using the commercially important Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata). Telomere lengths were estimated from tissues of known age individuals from different age classes, locations and at different sampling times. Telomere length tended to decrease with age only in young oysters less than 18 months old, but no decrease was observed in older oysters aged 2-4 years. Regional and temporal differences in telomere attrition rates were also observed. The relationship between telomere length and age was weak, however, with individuals of identical age varying significantly in their telomere length making it an imprecise age biomarker in oysters.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.