25 resultados para Expert evidence.


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Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.

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Reproductive philopatry in bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas was investigated by comparing mitochondrial (NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4, 797 base pairs and control region genes 837 base pairs) and nuclear (three microsatellite loci) DNA of juveniles sampled from 13 river systems across northern Australia. High mitochondrial and low microsatellite genetic diversity among juveniles sampled from different rivers (mitochondrial fST = 0.0767, P < 0.05; microsatellite FST = -0.0022, P > 0.05) supported female reproductive philopatry. Genetic structure was not further influenced by geographic distance (P > 0.05) or long-shore barriers to movement (P > 0.05). Additionally, results suggest that C. leucas in northern Australia has a long-term effective population size of 11 000-13 000 females and has undergone population bottlenecks and expansions that coincide with the timing of the last ice-ages.

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In multi-species fisheries managed under ITQs, the existence of joint production may lead to complex catch-quota balancing issues. Previous modelling and experimental research suggest that, in such fisheries, some fishers may benefit from the ability to trade packages of fishing quotas, rather than fulfil their quota needs by simultaneously bidding on separate single-species quota markets. This note presents evidence of naturally occurring package trades in a real fishery. Based on this evidence, we suggest that further empirical and modelling research is required on the potential and limitations of package quota trading in mixed fisheries managed with ITQs. © 2014.

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Viruses of the genus Mastrevirus (family Geminiviridae) are transmitted by leafhoppers and infect either mono- or dicotyledonous plants. Here we have determined the full length sequences of 49 dicot-infecting mastrevirus isolates sampled in Australia, Eritrea, India, Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey and Yemen. Comprehensive analysis of all available dicot-infecting mastrevirus sequences showed the diversity of these viruses in Australia to be greater than in the rest of their known range, consistent with earlier studies, and that, in contrast with the situation in monocot-infecting mastreviruses, detected inter-species recombination events outnumbered intra-species recombination events. Consistent with Australia having the greatest diversity of known dicot-infecting mastreviruses phylogeographic analyses indicating the most plausible scheme for the spread of these viruses to their present locations, suggest that most recent common ancestor of these viruses is likely nearer Australia than it is to the other regions investigated.

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Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia, with management often complicated further by large, spatially-heterogeneous paddocks. This paper presents the latest grazing research and associated bio-economic modelling from northern Australia and assesses the extent to which current recommendations to manage for these issues are supported. Overall, stocking around the safe long-term carrying capacity will maintain land condition and maximise long-term profitability. However, stocking rates should be varied in a risk-averse manner as pasture availability varies between years. Periodic wet-season spelling is also essential to maintain pasture condition and allow recovery of overgrazed areas. Uneven grazing distributions can be partially managed through fencing, providing additional water-points and in some cases patch-burning, although the economics of infrastructure development are extremely context-dependent. Overall, complex multi-paddock grazing systems do not appear justified in northern Australia. Provided the key management principles outlined above are applied in an active, adaptive manner, acceptable economic and environmental outcomes will be achieved irrespective of the grazing system applied.

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A recently developed spot form of blotch differential set of 16 barley lines was tested for reaction response to 60 Pyrenophora teres f. maculata isolates from geographically disperse barley crops of Australia. Twelve barley lines (Arimont, Barque, Chebec, CI5286, CI5791, CI9214, CII6150, Dairokkaku, Esperance Orge 289, Galleon, Keel, Skiff, Torrens and TR250) provided differential response between the isolates. The susceptible controls Gairdner and Kombar provided indication of isolate virulence or avirulence. Abundant pathogenic diversity was revealed with 33 designated pathotypes, some of which related to geographic region. AFLP analysis also revealed abundant diversity with each of the isolates representing a unique genotype and one isolate that contained both AFLP bands unique to P. teres f. maculata and P. teres f. teres, the cause of spot form and net form of net blotch respectively, suggesting that sexual recombination between the net form and spot form isolates may have occurred naturally in the field.

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Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) is a potyvirus that is transmitted by aphids and infects a wide range of plant species. We investigated the evolution of this pathogen by collecting 32 isolates of TuMV, mostly from Brassicaceae plants, in Australia and New Zealand. We performed a variety of sequence-based phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of the complete genomic sequences and of three non-recombinogenic regions of those sequences. The substitution rates, divergence times and phylogeographical patterns of the virus populations were estimated. Six inter- and seven intralineage recombination-type patterns were found in the genomes of the Australian and New Zealand isolates, and all were novel. Only one recombination-type pattern has been found in both countries. The Australian and New Zealand populations were genetically different, and were different from the European and Asian populations. Our Bayesian coalescent analyses, based on a combination of novel and published sequence data from three nonrecombinogenic protein-encoding regions, showed that TuMV probably started to migrate from Europe to Australia and New Zealand more than 80 years ago, and that distinct populations arose as a result of evolutionary drivers such as recombination. The basal-B2 subpopulation in Australia and New Zealand seems to be older than those of the world-B2 and -B3 populations. To our knowledge, our study presents the first population genetic analysis of TuMV in Australia and New Zealand. We have shown that the time of migration of TuMV correlates well with the establishment of agriculture and migration of Europeans to these countries.

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Background: In 2008-09, evidence of Reston ebolavirus (RESTV) infection was found in domestic pigs and pig workers in the Philippines. With species of bats having been shown to be the cryptic reservoir of filoviruses elsewhere, the Philippine government, in conjunction with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, assembled a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional team to investigate Philippine bats as the possible reservoir of RESTV. Methods: The team undertook surveillance of bat populations at multiple locations during 2010 using both serology and molecular assays. Results: A total of 464 bats from 21 species were sampled. We found both molecular and serologic evidence of RESTV infection in multiple bat species. RNA was detected with quantitative PCR (qPCR) in oropharyngeal swabs taken from Miniopterus schreibersii, with three samples yielding a product on conventional hemi-nested PCR whose sequences differed from a Philippine pig isolate by a single nucleotide. Uncorroborated qPCR detections may indicate RESTV nucleic acid in several additional bat species (M. australis, C. brachyotis and Ch. plicata). We also detected anti-RESTV antibodies in three bats (Acerodon jubatus) using both Western blot and ELISA. Conclusions: The findings suggest that ebolavirus infection is taxonomically widespread in Philippine bats, but the evident low prevalence and low viral load warrants expanded surveillance to elaborate the findings, and more broadly, to determine the taxonomic and geographic occurrence of ebolaviruses in bats in the region. © 2015 Jayme et al.

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We investigate the role of plant species in crops, pasture and native vegetation remnants in supporting agronomic pests and their predators. The study was conducted in three Australian States and across 290 sites sampled monthly for two years. Pastures played a key role in harbouring pest species consistent across States, while native vegetation hosted relatively more predators than other habitat types within each State. Furthermore, native plant species supported the lowest pest density and more predators than pests; in contrast, 75 of the exotic weed species surveyed hosted more pests than predators. Despite the role of pasture in harbouring pests, we found in NSW that pasture also supported the highest proportion of juvenile predators, while native vegetation remnants had the lowest. Our results indicate that non-crop habitat (native remnants or pasture) with few exotic weeds supports high predator and low pest arthropod densities, and that weeds are associated with high pest densities. By linking broad response variables such as ‘all pests’ with specific predictors such as ‘plant species’, our study will inform on-farm management actions of which weeds to control and which natives to plant or regenerate. This study shows the importance of knowing the function of habitats and plants species in supporting pests and predators in agricultural landscapes across multiple regions.

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Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV; family Nanoviridae, genus Babuvirus) is a multi-component single-stranded DNA virus, which infects banana plants in many regions of the world, often resulting in large-scale crop losses. Weanalyzed 171 banana leaf samples from fourteen countries and recovered, cloned, and sequenced 855 complete BBTV components including ninety-four full genomes. Importantly, full genomes were determined from eight countries, where previously no full genomes were available (Samoa, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the USA [HI]). Accounting for recombination and genome component reassortment, we examined the geographic structuring of global BBTV populations to reveal that BBTV likely originated in Southeast Asia, that the current global hotspots of BBTV diversity are Southeast Asia/Far East and India, and that BBTV populations circulating elsewhere in the world have all potentially originated from infrequent introductions. Most importantly, we find that rather than the current global BBTV distribution being due to increases in human-mediated movements of bananas over the past few decades, it is more consistent with a pattern of infrequent introductions of the virus to different parts of the world over the past 1,000 years.