Population dynamics of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in north eastern Australia: simulated responses to control

Wild European rabbits are a serious problem to agriculture in Australia, with an estimated annual cost of A$ 113 million. Biological control agents (myxomatosis and rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus) have caused large and sustained declines in rabbit populations throughout Australia. A simulation model incorporates these diseases as well as warren destruction as methods of controlling rabbit populations in Queensland, north eastern Australia. These diseases reduced populations by 90-99% and the combination of these and warren destruction led to 100% control in simulations at six sites across southern Queensland. Increasing monthly pasture growth by 15% had little effect on simulated populations whereas a 15% decrease reduced populations by 0-50%. An increase in temperature of 2.5 °C would lead to a 15-60% decrease in populations. These effects suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in the population of rabbits in Queensland and a retraction in the northern limit of their distribution in Australia.

Applying a simulation model to the management of an infestation of Miconia calvescens in the wet tropics of Australia

A simulation model that combines biological, search and economic components is applied to the eradication of a Miconia calvescens infestation at El Arish in tropical Queensland, Australia. Information on the year M. calvescens was introduced to the site, the number of plants controlled and the timing of control, is used to show that currently there could be M. calvescens plants remaining undetected at the site, including some mature plants. Modelling results indicate that the eradication programme has had a significant impact on the population of M. calvescens, as shown by simulated results for uncontrolled and controlled populations. The model was also used to investigate the effect of changing search effort on the cost of and time to eradication. Control costs were found to be negligible over all levels of search effort tested. Importantly, results suggest eradication may be achieved within several decades, if resources are increased slightly from their current levels and if there is a long-term commitment to funding the eradication programme.

GM solutions to root diseases of cereals - A situation analysis and business case

Root disease causes about $503 million in losses annually to Australia's wheat and barley industries. Because of these large losses and in many cases the difficulty in reducing these losses through breeding or management, root diseases are candidates for solutions through genetic modification (GM). Through an extensive review of the scientific literature and patents, a range of approaches to GM solutions to root diseases are critically discussed. Given the high cost of regulatory approval for GM crops and a complex intellectual property (IP) landscape, it is likely that research in this area will be done in collaboration with international partners.

Evaluating the efficacy of the EZ-Ject herbicide system in Queensland, Australia

The EZ-Ject herbicide system was evaluated as a stem injection method for controlling woody weeds in a range of situations where traditional chemical application methods have limited scope. The equipment was trialled on three Queensland weed species; pond apple (Annona glabra), velvety tree pear (Opuntia tomentosa) and yellow oleander (Cascabela thevetia); at five different cartridge densities (0, 1, 2, 3 and 4) and with two herbicides (glyphosate and imazapyr). Cartridges filled with imazapyr were significantly more effective at controlling the three woody weed species than those filled with glyphosate. Injecting plants with three imazapyr cartridges resulted in plant kills ranging from 93 to 100%, compared with glyphosate kills of 17 to 100%. Pond apple was the most susceptible species, requiring one imazapyr cartridge or two glyphosate cartridges to kill 97 and 92% of the treated plants. Plant mortality increased as the number of cartridges injected increased. Mortality did not differ significantly for treatments receiving three and four imazapyr cartridges, as these cartridge densities met the criterion of injecting one cartridge per 10-cm basal circumference, a criterion recommended by the manufacturers for treating large plants (>6.35 cm in diameter at breast height). The cost of treating a weed infestation of 1500 plants ha–1 with three cartridges per tree is $1070 ha–1, with labour costs accounting for 16% of the total. The high chemical costs would preclude this technique from broad-scale use, but the method could have application for treating woody weeds in sensitive, high conservation areas.

Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest reef system in the world; it covers an area of approximately 2,225,000 km² in the northern Queensland continental shelf. There are approximately 750 reefs that exist within 40 km of the Queensland coast. Recent research has identified that poor water quality is having negative impacts on the GBR (Haynes et al. 2007). The Fitzroy Basin covers 143,000 km² and is the largest catchment draining into the GBR as well as being one of the largest catchments in Australia (Karfs et al. 2009). The Burdekin Catchment is the second largest catchment entering into the GBR and covers 133,432 km².The prime determinant for the changes in water quality entering into the GBR have been attributed to grazing, with beef production the largest single land use industry comprising 90% of the land area (Karfs et al. 2009). Extensive beef production contributes over $1 billion dollars to the national economy annually and employs over 9000 people, many in rural communities (Gordon 2007). ‘Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments’ was a joint project with the Fitzroy Basin Association and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation. The project was formed under the federally funded Caring For Our Country and the Reef Rescue programs. The project objectives were as follows; * Quantifying the costs of over-utilising available pasture and the resulting sediment leaving a representative farm for four of the major land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments and identifying economically optimal pasture utilisation rates * Estimating the cost of reducing pasture utilisation rates below the determined optimal * Using this information, guide the selection of appropriate tools to achieve reduced utilisation rates e.g. extension process versus incentive payments or a combination of both * Model the biophysical and economic impacts of altering grazing systems to restore land condition e.g. from C condition to B condition for four land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments.

Influence of plant traits on production costs and profitability of strawberry in southeast Queensland.

In Queensland the subtropical strawberry ( Fragaria * ananassa) breeding program aims to combine traits into novel genotypes that increase production efficiency. The contribution of individual plant traits to cost and income under subtropical Queensland conditions was investigated, with the overall goal of improving the profitability of the industry through the release of new strawberry cultivars. The study involved specifying the production and marketing system using three cultivars of strawberry that are currently widely grown annually in southeast Queensland, developing methods to assess the economic impact of changes to the system, and identifying plant traits that influence outcomes from the system. From May through September P (price; $ punnet -1), V (monthly mass; tonne of fruit on the market) and M (calendar month; i.e. May=5) were found to be related ( r2=0.92) by the function (SE) P=4.741(0.469)-0.001630(0.0005) V-0.226(0.102) M using data from 2006 to 2010 for the Brisbane central market. Both income and cost elements in the gross margin were subject to sensitivity analysis. 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' 'Groups' of 'Activities' were the major contributors to variable costs (each >20%) in the gross margin analysis. Within the 'Harvesting Group', the 'Picking Activity' contributed most (>80%) with the trait 'display of fruit' having the greatest (33%) influence on the cost of the 'Picking Activity'. Within the 'Handling/Packing Group', the 'Packing Activity' contributed 50% of costs with the traits 'fruit shape', 'fruit size variation' and 'resistance to bruising' having the greatest (12-62%) influence on the cost of the 'Packing Activity'. Non-plant items (e.g. carton purchases) made up the other 50% of the costs within the 'Handling/Packing Group'. When any of the individual traits in the 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' groups were changed by one unit (on a 1-9 scale) the gross margin changed by up to 1%. Increasing yield increased the gross margin to a maximum (15% above present) at 1320 g plant -1 (94% above present). A 10% redistribution of total yield from September to May increased the gross margin by 23%. Increasing fruit size increased gross margin: a 75% increase in fruit size (to ~30 g) produced a 22% increase in the gross margin. The modified gross margin analysis developed in this study allowed simultaneous estimation of the gross margin for the producer and gross value of the industry. These parameters sometimes move in opposite directions.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Management of the invasive hill raspberry (Rubus niveus) on Santiago Island, Galapagos: Eradication or indefinite control?

The eradication of an invasive plant species can provide substantial ecological and economic benefits by eliminating completely the negative effects of the weed and reducing the high cost of continuing control. A 5-yr program toward the eradication of hill raspberry (Rubus niveus Thunb.) in Santiago Island is evaluated using delimitation and extirpation criteria, as well as assessment of the ecological community response to management techniques. Currently, hill raspberry is located in the humid zone of Santiago island. It is distributed over three main infestations, small patches, and many scattered individuals within an area of approximately 1,000 ha. New infestations are constantly being found; every year, new detections add an area of approximately 175 ha. Adult and juvenile individuals are still found, both beyond and within known infestations. Both plant and seed bank density of hill raspberry decreased over time where infestations were controlled. Species composition in the seed bank and existing vegetation were significantly different between areas under intensive control and adjacent uninvaded forest. After 5 yr of intensive management, delimitation of hill raspberry has not been achieved; new populations are found every year, increasing the infested area that requires management. Off-target effects on native species resulting from control efforts seem to be substantial. Although a vast increase in economic investment would allow intensive searching that might enable all individuals to be found and controlled, the resultant disturbance and off-targets effects could outweigh the conservation benefits of eradication.

Economic aspects of post-border weed risk management

Aim: Decision-making in weed management involves consideration of limited budgets, long time horizons, conflicting priorities, and as a result, trade-offs. Economics provides tools that allow these issues to be addressed and is thus integral to management of the risks posed by weeds. One of the critical issues in weed risk management during the early stages of an invasion concerns feasibility of eradication. We briefly review how economics may be used in weed risk management, concentrating on this management strategy. Location: Australia. Methods: A range of innovative studies that investigate aspects of weed risk management are reviewed. We show how these could be applied to newly invading weeds, focussing on methods for investigating eradication feasibility. In particular, eradication feasibility is analysed in terms of cost and duration of an eradication programme, using a simulation model based on field-derived parameter values for chromolaena, Chromolaena odorata. Results: The duration of an eradication programme can be reduced by investing in progressively higher amounts of search effort per hectare, but increasing search area will become relatively more expensive as search effort increases. When variation in survey and control success is taken into account, increasing search effort also reduces uncertainty around the required duration of the eradication programme. Main conclusions: Economics is integral to the management of the risks posed by weeds. Decision analysis, based on economic principles, is now commonly used to tackle key issues that confront weed managers. For eradication feasibility, duration and cost of a weed eradication programme are critical components; the dimensions of both factors can usefully be estimated through simulation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Optimizing sowing management for short duration dry seeded aman rice on the High Ganges River Floodplain of Bangladesh

Dry seeding of aman rice can facilitate timely crop establishment and early harvest and thus help to alleviate the monga (hunger) period in the High Ganges Flood Plain of Bangladesh. Dry seeding also offers many other potential benefits, including reduced cost of crop establishment and improved soil structure for crops grown in rotation with rice. However, the optimum time for seeding in areas where farmers have access to water for supplementary irrigation has not been determined. We hypothesized that earlier sowing is safer, and that increasing seed rate mitigates the adverse effects of significant rain after sowing on establishment and crop performance. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed long term rainfall data, and conducted field experiments on the effects of sowing date (target dates of 25 May, 10 June, 25 June, and 10 July) and seed rate (20, 40, and 60 kg ha−1) on crop establishment, growth, and yield of dry seeded Binadhan-7 (short duration, 110–120 d) during the 2012 and 2013 rainy seasons. Wet soil as a result of untimely rainfall usually prevented sowing on the last two target dates in both years, but not on the first two dates. Rainfall analysis also suggested a high probability of being able to dry seed in late May/early June, and a low probability of being able to dry seed in late June/early July. Delaying sowing from 25 May/10 June to late June/early July usually resulted in 20–25% lower plant density and lower uniformity of the plant stand as a result of rain shortly after sowing. Delaying sowing also reduced crop duration, and tillering or biomass production when using a low seed rate. For the late June/early July sowings, there was a strong positive relationship between plant density and yield, but this was not the case for earlier sowings. Thus, increasing seed rate compensated for the adverse effect of untimely rains after sowing on plant density and the shorter growth duration of the late sown crops. The results indicate that in this region, the optimum date for sowing dry seeded rice is late May to early June with a seed rate of 40 kg ha−1. Planting can be delayed to late June/early July with no yield loss using a seed rate of 60 kg ha−1, but in many years, the soil is simply too wet to be able to dry seed at this time due to rainfall.

Combinations of plant-derived compounds against Campylobacter in vitro

Campylobacter occur in fresh retail poultry products as a result of their colonization of the gastro-intestinal tract of chickens during growth. Feed additives could be used for suppression of Campylobacter levels in the chickens prior to slaughter. To address this opportunity, feed manufacturers are targeting natural antimicrobials from plant material as new forms of consumer-accepted feed additives. However, to be practical, these natural antimicrobials must be effective at low concentrations. The current study has validated an improved laboratory method to study minimal inhibitory concentrations of plant compounds and their combinations against Campylobacter. The assay was shown to be valid for testing lipid-soluble and water-soluble plant extracts and byproducts from the food industry. The study screened 29 extracts or plant-derived compounds and their mixtures for anti-Campylobacter activity using a laboratory assay. Combinations of oregano, lactic acid, and sorghum byproduct showed effective synergy in anti-Campylobacter activity. The synergies allowed a large reduction in the concentration of the individual compounds needed to kill the bacteria with an 80% reduction in concentration being achieved for oregano essential oil. The assay gives rise to further opportunities for the testing of a greater range of combinations of plant-derived compounds and other natural antimicrobials. The method is robust, simple, and easily automated, and it could be used to adjust the cost of feed formulations by reducing costs associated with antimicrobial feed additives.

Strategies to limit the impact of nematode pressure on sugarcane productivity in the Isis

Two trials were done in this project. One was a continuation of work started under a previous GRDC/SRDC-funded activity, 'Strategies to improve the integration of legumes into cane based farming systems'. This trial aimed to assess the impact of trash and tillage management options and nematicide application on nematodes and crop performance. Methods and results are contained in the following publication: Halpin NV, Stirling GR, Rehbein WE, Quinn B, Jakins A, Ginns SP. The impact of trash and tillage management options and nematicide application on crop performance and plant-parasitic nematode populations in a sugarcane/peanut farming system. Proc. Aust. Soc. Sugar Cane Technol. 37, 192-203. Nematicide application in the plant crop significantly reduced total numbers of plant parasitic nematodes (PPN) but there was no impact on yield. Application of nematicide to the ratoon crop significantly reduced sugar yield. The study confirmed other work demonstrating that implementation of strategies like reduced tillage reduced populations of total PPN, suggesting that the soil was more suppressive to PPN in those treatments. The second trial, a variety trial, demonstrated the limited value of nematicide application in sugarcane farming systems. This study has highlighted that growers shouldn’t view nematicides as a ‘cure all’ for paddocks that have historically had high PPN numbers. Nematicides have high mammalian toxicity, have the potential to contaminate ground water (Kookana et al. 1995) and are costly. The cost of nematicide used in R1 was approx. $320 - $350/ha, adding $3.50/t of cane in a 100 t/ha crop. Also, our study demonstrated that a single nematicide treatment at the application rate registered for sugarcane is not very effective in reducing populations of nematode pests. There appears to be some levels of resistance to nematodes within the current suite of varieties available to the southern canelands. For example the soil in plots that were growing Q183 had 560% more root knot nematodes / 200mL soil compared to plots that grew Q245. The authors see great value in investment into a nematode screening program that could rate varieties into groups of susceptibility to both major sugarcane nematode pests. Such a rating could then be built into a decision support ‘tree’ or tool to better enable producers to select varieties on a paddock by paddock basis.

Priority list of endemic diseases for the red meat industries

This report provides a systematic review of the most economically damaging endemic diseases and conditions for the Australian red meat industry (cattle, sheep and goats). A number of diseases for cattle, sheep and goats have been identified and were prioritised according to their prevalence, distribution, risk factors and mitigation. The economic cost of each disease as a result of production losses, preventive costs and treatment costs is estimated at the herd and flock level, then extrapolated to a national basis using herd/flock demographics from the 2010-11 Agricultural Census by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Information shortfalls and recommendations for further research are also specified. A total of 17 cattle, 23 sheep and nine goat diseases were prioritised based on feedback received from producer, government and industry surveys, followed by discussions between the consultants and MLA. Assumptions of disease distribution, in-herd/flock prevalence, impacts on mortality/production and costs for prevention and treatment were obtained from the literature where available. Where these data were not available, the consultants used their own expertise to estimate the relevant measures for each disease. Levels of confidence in the assumptions for each disease were estimated, and gaps in knowledge identified. The assumptions were analysed using a specialised Excel model that estimated the per animal, herd/flock and national costs of each important disease. The report was peer reviewed and workshopped by the consultants and experts selected by MLA before being finalised. Consequently, this report is an important resource that will guide and prioritise future research, development and extension activities by a variety of stakeholders in the red meat industry. This report completes Phase I and Phase II of an overall four-Phase project initiative by MLA, with identified data gaps in this report potentially being addressed within the later phases. Modelling the economic costs using a consistent approach for each disease ensures that the derived estimates are transparent and can be refined if improved data on prevalence becomes available. This means that the report will be an enduring resource for developing policies and strategies for the management of endemic diseases within the Australian red meat industry.