34 resultados para Confidence Density
Resumo:
Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.
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Successful identification of these factors influence upon TFS will empower stakeholders to make informed decisions as to how to best utilise the resource, boost consumer confidence thus ensuring the improved profitability of the fishery into the future.
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A comprehensive analysis was conducted using 48 sorghum QTL studies published from 1995 to 2010 to make information from historical sorghum QTL experiments available in a form that could be more readily used by sorghum researchers and plant breeders. In total, 771 QTL relating to 161 unique traits from 44 studies were projected onto a sorghum consensus map. Confidence intervals (CI) of QTL were estimated so that valid comparisons could be made between studies. The method accounted for the number of lines used and the phenotypic variation explained by individual QTL from each study. In addition, estimated centimorgan (cM) locations were calculated for the predicted sorghum gene models identified in Phytozome (JGI GeneModels SBI v1.4) and compared with QTL distribution genome-wide, both on genetic linkage (cM) and physical (base-pair/bp) map scales. QTL and genes were distributed unevenly across the genome. Heterochromatic enrichment for QTL was observed, with approximately 22% of QTL either entirely or partially located in the heterochromatic regions. Heterochromatic gene enrichment was also observed based on their predicted cM locations on the sorghum consensus map, due to suppressed recombination in heterochromatic regions, in contrast to the euchromatic gene enrichment observed on the physical, sequence-based map. The finding of high gene density in recombination-poor regions, coupled with the association with increased QTL density, has implications for the development of more efficient breeding systems in sorghum to better exploit heterosis. The projected QTL information described, combined with the physical locations of sorghum sequence-based markers and predicted gene models, provides sorghum researchers with a useful resource for more detailed analysis of traits and development of efficient marker-assisted breeding strategies.
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Provision of artificial waterpoints in Australian rangelands has resulted in an increase in the range and density of kangaroos. At high densities, kangaroos can inhibit vegetation regeneration, particularly in some protected areas where harvesting is prohibited. Fencing off waterpoints has been proposed to limit these impacts. Our aim was to determine whether fencing off waterpoints during a drought (when kangaroos would be especially water-limited) would influence the density and distribution of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus). Two waterpoints were fenced within the first 6 months of the 27-month study and a further two waterpoints were kept unfenced as controls in Idalia National Park, western Queensland. We estimated kangaroo densities around waterpoints from walked line-transect counts, and their grazing distribution from dung-pellet counts. Fencing off waterpoints failed to influence either the density or distribution up to 4 km from the waterpoints. Our results indicate that food availability, rather than the location of waterpoints, determines kangaroo distribution. Few areas in the rangelands are beyond kangaroos' convenient reach from permanent waterpoints. Therefore, fencing off waterpoints without explicitly considering the spatial context in relation to other available water sources will fail to achieve vegetation regeneration.
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A cross-sectional study was conducted between October 2011 and March 2012 in two major pig producing provinces in the Philippines. Four hundred and seventy one pig farms slaughtering finisher pigs at government operated abattoirs participated in this study. The objectives of this study were to group: (a) smallholder (S) and commercial (C) production systems into patterns according to their herd health providers (HHPs), and obtain descriptive information about the grouped S and C production systems; and (b) identify key HHPs within each production system using social network analysis. On-farm veterinarians, private consultants, pharmaceutical company representatives, government veterinarians, livestock and agricultural technicians, and agricultural supply stores were found to be actively interacting with pig farmers. Four clusters were identified based on production system and their choice of HHPs. Differences in management and biosecurity practices were found between S and C clusters. Private HHPs provided a service to larger C and some larger S farms, and have little or no interaction with the other HHPs. Government HHPs provided herd health service mainly to S farms and small C farms. Agricultural supply stores were identified as a dominant solitary HHP and provided herd health services to the majority of farmers. Increased knowledge of the routine management and biosecurity practices of S and C farmers and the key HHPs that are likely to be associated with those practices would be of value as this information could be used to inform a risk-based approach to disease surveillance and control. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
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Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.
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ObjectivesTo compare the sensitivity of inspections of cattle herds and adult fly trapping for detection of the Old World screw-worm fly (OWS). ProceduresThe incidence of myiases on animals and the number of OWS trapped with LuciTrap (R)/Bezzilure were measured concurrently on cattle farms on Sumba Island (Indonesia) and in peninsular Malaysia (two separate periods for the latter). The numbers of animal inspections and traps required to achieve OWS detection at the prevalent fly densities were calculated. ResultsOn Sumba Island, with low-density OWS populations, the sensitivity of herd inspections and of trapping for OWS detection was 0.30 and 0.85, respectively. For 95% confidence of detecting OWS, either 45 inspections of 74 animals or trapping with 5 sets of 4 LuciTraps for 14 days are required. In Malaysia, at higher OWS density, herd inspections of 600 animals (twice weekly, period 1) or 1600 animals (weekly, period 2) always detected myiases (sensitivity = 1), while trapping had sensitivities of 0.89 and 0.64 during periods 1 and 2, respectively. For OWS detection with 95% confidence, fewer than 600 and 1600 animals or 2 and 6 LuciTraps are required in periods 1 and 2, respectively. ConclusionsInspections of cattle herds and trapping with LuciTrap and Bezzilure can detect OWS populations. As a preliminary guide for OWS detection in Australia, the numbers of animals and traps derived from the Sumba Island trial should be used because the prevailing conditions better match those of northern Australia.
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Current understanding is that high planting density has the potential to suppress weeds and crop-weed interactions can be exploited by adjusting fertilizer rates. We hypothesized that (a) high planting density can be used to suppress Rottboellia cochinchinensis growth and (b) rice competitiveness against this weed can be enhanced by increasing nitrogen (N) rates. We tested these hypotheses by growing R. cochinchinensis alone and in competition with four rice planting densities (0, 100, 200, and 400 plants m-2) at four N rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg ha-1). At 56 days after sowing (DAS), R. cochinchinensis plant height decreased by 27-50 %, tiller number by 55-76 %, leaf number by 68-84 %, leaf area by 70-83 %, leaf biomass by 26-90 %, and inflorescence biomass by 60-84 %, with rice densities ranging from 100 to 400 plants m-2. All these parameters increased with an increase in N rate. Without the addition of N, R. cochinchinensis plants were 174 % taller than rice; whereas, with added N, they were 233 % taller. Added N favored more weed biomass production relative to rice. R. cochinchinensis grew taller than rice (at all N rates) to avoid shade, which suggests that it is a "shade-avoiding" plant. R. cochinchinensis showed this ability to reduce the effect of rice interference through increased leaf weight ratio, specific stem length, and decreased root-shoot weight ratio. This weed is more responsive to N fertilizer than rice. Therefore, farmers should give special consideration to the application timing of N fertilizer when more N-responsive weeds are present in their field. Results suggest that the growth and seed production of R. cochinchinensis can be decreased considerably by increasing rice density to 400 plants m-2. There is a need to integrate different weed control measures to achieve complete control of this noxious weed.
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The use of maize simulation models to determine the optimum plant population for rainfed environments allows the evaluation of plant populations over multiple years and locations at a lower cost than traditional field experimentation. However the APSIM maize model that has been used to conduct some of these 'virtual' experiments assumes that the maximum rate of soil water extraction by the crop root system is constant across plant populations. This untested assumption may cause grain yield to be overestimated in lower plant populations. A field experiment was conducted to determine whether maximum rates of water extraction vary with plant population, and the maximum rate of soil water extraction was estimated for three plant populations (2.4, 3.5 and 5.5 plants m(-2)) under water limited conditions. Maximum soil water extraction rates in the field experiment decreased linearly with plant population, and no difference was detected between plant populations for the crop lower limit of soil water extraction. Re-analysis of previous maize simulation experiments demonstrated that the use of inappropriately high extraction-rate parameters at low plant populations inflated predictions of grain yield, and could cause erroneous recommendations to be made for plant population. The results demonstrate the importance of validating crop simulation models across the range of intended treatments. (C) 2013 Elsevier E.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Mechanical hill direct seeding of hybrid rice could be the way to solve the problems of high seeding rates and uneven plant establishment now faced in direct seeded rice; however, it is not clear what the optimum hill seeding density should be for high-yielding hybrid rice in the single-season rice production system. Experiments were conducted in 2010 and 2011 to determine the effects of hill seeding density (25 cm 615 cm, 25 cm 617 cm, 25 cm 619 cm, 25 cm 621 cm, and 25 cm 623 cm; three to five seeds per hill) on plant growth and grain yield of a hybrid variety, Nei2you6, in two fields with different fertility (soil fertility 1 and 2). In addition, in 2012 and 2013, comparisons among mechanical hill seeding, broadcasting, and transplanting were conducted with three hybrid varieties to evaluate the optimum seeding density. With increases in seeding spacing from 25 cm615 cm to 25 cm623 cm, productive tillers per hill increased by 34.2% and 50.0% in soil fertility 1 and 2. Panicles per m2 declined with increases in seeding spacing in soil fertility 1. In soil fertility 2, no difference in panicles per m2 was found at spacing ranging from 25 cm617 cm to 25 cm623 cm, while decreases in the area of the top three leaves and aboveground dry weight per shoot at flowering were observed. Grain yield was the maximum at 25 cm 617 cm spacing in both soil fertility fields. Our results suggest that a seeding density of 25 cm617 cm was suitable for high-yielding hybrid rice. These results were verified through on-farm demonstration experiments, in which mechanical hill-seeded rice at this density had equal or higher grain yield than transplanted rice
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Cascabela thevetia (L.) Lippold (Apocynaceae) is an invasive woody weed that has formed large infestations at several locations in northern Australia. Understanding the reproductive biology of C. thevetia is vital to its management. This paper reports results of a shade house experiment that determined the effects of light conditions (100% or 30% of natural light) and plant densities (one, two, four or eight plants per plot) on the growth, time to flowering and seed formation, and monthly pod production of two C. thevetia biotypes (peach and yellow). Shaded plants were significantly larger when they reached reproductive maturity than plants grown under natural light. However, plants grown under natural light flowered earlier (268 days compared with 369 days) and produced 488 more pods per pot (a 5-fold increase) over 3 years. The yellow biotype was slightly taller at reproductive maturity but significantly taller and with significantly greater aboveground biomass at the end of the study. Both biotypes flowered at a similar time under natural light and low plant densities but the yellow biotype was quicker to seed (478 versus 498 days), produced significantly more pods (364 versus 203 pods) and more shoot growth (577 g versus 550 g) than the peach biotype over 3 years. Higher densities of C. thevetia tended to significantly reduce the shoot and root growth by 981 g and 714 g per plant across all light conditions and biotypes over 3 years and increase the time taken to flower by 140 days and produce seeds by 184 days. For land managers trying to prevent establishment of C. thevetia or to control seedling regrowth once initial infestations have been treated, this study indicates that young plants have the potential to flower and produce seeds within 268 and 353 days, respectively. However, with plant growth and reproduction most likely to be slower under field conditions, annual surveillance and control activities should be sufficient to find and treat plants before they produce seeds and replenish soil seed banks. The most at-risk part of the landscape may be open areas that receive maximum sunlight, particularly within riparian habitats where plants would consistently have more favourable soil moisture conditions.
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There is strong interest in the use of high-density plantings to increase the productivity of avocado (Persea americana) orchards. Close plantings have the potential for higher yields and returns than standard or traditional plantings, especially in the early years of production. The success of this technology is dependent on the use of methods to control shoot growth and maximise light interception as the trees begin to bear fruit. We reviewed the performance of high-density orchards in different environments, and the success of efforts to control the growth of the trees through the use of dwarfing material, canopy management and growth regulators. Close plantings generally produce higher yields in the first few years of bearing compared with the yields of standard plantings. However, in most growing areas, the trees in the close plantings soon begin to crowd each other and yields decline. This usually occurs despite efforts to control shoot growth by pruning the trees or by applying growth regulators. Efforts to breed dwarfing rootstocks that can control the growth of mature trees have been largely unsuccessful. In the absence of dwarfing material, effective canopy management appears to be the largest barrier to success of high-density orchards. Further research on the use of different pruning strategies and growth regulators to control the growth of the trees and maximise light interception is required. There are potential problems with some of the growth regulators persisting in the harvested fruit and soil under certain circumstances.
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Cyperus iria is a weed of rice with widespread occurrence throughout the world. Because of concerns about excessive and injudicious use of herbicides, cultural weed management approaches that are safe and economical are needed. Developing such approaches will require a better understanding of weed biology and ecology, as well as of weed response to increases in crop density and nutrition. Knowledge of the effects of nitrogen (N) fertilizer on crop-weed competitive interactions could also help in the development of integrated weed management strategies. The present study was conducted in a screenhouse to determine the effects of rice planting density (0, 5, 10, and 20 plants pot−1) and N rate (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg ha−1) on the growth of C. iria. Tiller number per plant decreased by 73–88%, leaf number by 85–94%, leaf area by 85–98%, leaf biomass by 92–99%, and inflorescence biomass by 96–99% when weed plants were grown at 20 rice plants pot−1 (i.e., 400 plants m−2) compared with weed plants grown alone. All of these parameters increased when N rates were increased. On average, weed biomass increased by 118–389% and rice biomass by 121–275% with application of 50–150 kg N ha−1, compared to control. Addition of N favored weed biomass production relative to rice biomass. Increased N rates reduced the root-to-shoot weight ratio of C. iria. Rice interference reduced weed growth and biomass and completely suppressed C. iria when no N was applied at high planting densities (i.e., 20 plants pot−1). The weed showed phenotypic plasticity in response to N application, and the addition of N increased the competitive ability of the weed over rice at densities of 5 and 10 rice plants pot−1 compared with 20 plants pot−1. The results of the present study suggest that high rice density (i.e., 400 plants m−2) can help suppress C. iria growth even at high N rates (150 kg ha−1).
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Pratylenchus thornei is a major pathogen of wheat in Australia. Two glasshouse experiments with four wheat cultivars that had different final populations (Pf) of P. thornei in the field were used to optimise conditions for assessing resistance. With different initial populations (Pi) ranging up to 5250 P. thornei/kg soil, Pf of P. thornei increased to 16 weeks after sowing, and then decreased at 20 weeks in some cultivar x Pi combinations. The population dynamics of P. thornei up to 16 weeks were best described by a modified exponential equation P f (t) = aP i e kt where P f (t) is the final population density at time t, P i is the initial population density, a is the proportion of P i that initiates population development, and k is the intrinsic rate of increase of the population. The cultivar GS50a had very low k values at Pi of 5250 and 1050 indicating its resistance, Suneca and Potam had high k values indicating susceptibility, whereas intolerant Gatcher had a low value at the higher Pi and a high value at the lower Pi. Nitrate fertiliser increased plant growth and Pf values of susceptible cultivars, but in unplanted soil it decreased Pf. Nematicide (aldicarb 5 mg/kg soil) killed P. thornei more effectively in planted than in unplanted soil and increased plant growth particularly in the presence of N fertiliser. In both experiments, the wheat cultivars Suneca and Potam were more susceptible than the cultivar GS50a reflecting field results. The method chosen to discriminate wheat cultivars was to assess Pf after growth for 16 weeks in soil with Pi ~1050–5250 P. thornei/kg soil and fertilised with 200 mg NO3–N/kg soil.