38 resultados para Communicable diseases Mathematical models


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This case study discusses in detail for the first time the diagnosis and management of a case of leishmaniosis in a dog imported to Australia. The dog presented with epistaxis and a non-regenerative anaemia five years after being imported from Europe. Protozoa were identified within macrophages in bone marrow and splenic cytology. A Leishmania indirect fluorescent antibody test was performed and was positive while an Ehrlichia canis antibody test was negative. Polymerase chain reaction of the ITS-1 and ITS-2 regions of skin, lymph node, spleen and bone marrow were all positive for Leishmania infantum. The dog was treated with amphotericin B with a strong clinical response. The importance of thorough diagnostics in non-endemic areas, particularly Australia, is discussed. Treatment with amphotericin B is discussed. Vigilance, disease reporting and response frameworks are recommended for non-endemic areas. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

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A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

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Henipaviruses cause fatal infection in humans and domestic animals. Transmission from fruit bats, the wildlife reservoirs of henipaviruses, is putatively driven (at least in part) by anthropogenic changes that alter host ecology. Human and domestic animal fatalities occur regularly in Asia and Australia, but recent findings suggest henipaviruses are present in bats across the Old World tropics. We review the application of the One Health approach to henipavirus research in three locations: Australia, Malaysia and Bangladesh. We propose that by recognising and addressing the complex interaction among human, domestic animal and wildlife systems, research within the One Health paradigm will be more successful in mitigating future human and domestic animal deaths from henipavirus infection than alternative single-discipline approaches. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.

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Hendra virus is a highly pathogenic novel paramyxovirus causing sporadic fatal infection in horses and humans in Australia. Species of fruit-bats (genus Pteropus), commonly known as flying-foxes, are the natural host of the virus. We undertook a survey of horse owners in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia to assess the level of adoption of recommended risk management strategies and to identify impediments to adoption. Survey questionnaires were completed by 1431 respondents from the target states, and from a spectrum of industry sectors. Hendra virus knowledge varied with sector, but was generally limited, with only 13% of respondents rating their level of knowledge as high or very high. The majority of respondents (63%) had seen their state’s Hendra virus information for horse owners, and a similar proportion found the information useful. Fifty-six percent of respondents thought it moderately, very or extremely likely that a Hendra virus case could occur in their area, yet only 37% said they would consider Hendra virus if their horse was sick. Only 13% of respondents stabled their horses overnight, although another 24% said it would be easy or very easy to do so, but hadn’t done so. Only 13% and 15% of respondents respectively had horse feed bins and water points under solid cover. Responses varied significantly with state, likely reflecting different Hendra virus history. The survey identified inconsistent awareness and/or adoption of available knowledge, confusion in relation to Hendra virus risk perception, with both over-and under-estimation of true risk, and lag in the uptake of recommended risk minimisation strategies, even when these were readily implementable. However, we also identified frustration and potential alienation by horse owners who found the recommended strategies impractical, onerous and prohibitively expensive. The insights gained from this survey have broader application to other complex risk-management scenarios.

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Nipah virus causes periodic livestock and human disease with high case fatality rate, and consequent major economic, social and psychological impacts. Fruit bats of the genus Pteropus are the natural reservoir. In this study, we used real time PCR to screen the saliva and urine of P. vampyrus from North Sumatera for Nipah virus genome. A conventional reverse transcriptase (RT-PCR) assay was used on provisionally positive samples to corroborate findings. This is the first report of Nipah virus detection in P. vampyrus in Sumatera, Indonesia.

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Q fever is a vaccine-preventable disease; despite this, high annual notification numbers are still recorded in Australia. We have previously shown seroprevalence in Queensland metropolitan regions is approaching that of rural areas. This study investigated the presence of nucleic acid from Coxiella burnetii, the agent responsible for Q fever, in a number of animal and environmental samples collected throughout Queensland, to identify potential sources of human infection. Samples were collected from 129 geographical locations and included urine, faeces and whole blood from 22 different animal species; 45 ticks were removed from two species, canines and possums; 151 soil samples; 72 atmospheric dust samples collected from two locations and 50 dust swabs collected from domestic vacuum cleaners. PCR testing was performed targeting the IS1111 and COM1 genes for the specific detection of C.burnetii DNA. There were 85 detections from 1318 animal samples, giving a detection rate for each sample type ranging from 2.1 to 6.8%. Equine samples produced a detection rate of 11.9%, whilst feline and canine samples showed detection rates of 7.8% and 5.2%, respectively. Native animals had varying detection rates: pooled urines from flying foxes had 7.8%, whilst koalas had 5.1%, and 6.7% of ticks screened were positive. The soil and dust samples showed the presence of C.burnetii DNA ranging from 2.0 to 6.9%, respectively. These data show that specimens from a variety of animal species and the general environment provide a number of potential sources for C.burnetii infections of humans living in Queensland. These previously unrecognized sources may account for the high seroprevalence rates seen in putative low-risk communities, including Q fever patients with no direct animal contact and those subjects living in a low-risk urban environment.

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Southern hairy-nosed wombats (Lasiorhinus latifrons) inhabiting degraded habitat in South Australia were recently identified with extensive hair loss and dermatitis and were in thin to emaciated body condition. Pathological and clinicopathological investigations on affected juvenile wombats identified a toxic hepatopathy suggestive of plants containing pyrrolizidine alkaloids, accompanied by photosensitive dermatitis. Hepatic disease was suspected in additional wombats on the basis of serum biochemical analysis. Preliminary toxicological analysis performed on scats and gastrointestinal contents from wombats found in this degraded habitat identified a number of toxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids consistent with ingestion of Heliotropeum europaeum. Although unpalatable, ingestion may occur by young animals due to decreased availability of preferred forages in degraded habitats and the emergence of weeds around the time of weaning of naive animals. Habitat degradation leading to malnutrition and ingestion of toxic weed species is a significant welfare issue in this species.

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Veterinarians have few tools to predict the rate of disease progression in FIV-infected cats. In contrast, in HIV infection, plasma viral RNA load and acute phase protein concentrations are commonly used as predictors of disease progression. This study evaluated these predictors in cats naturally infected with FIV. In older cats (>5 years), log10 FIV RNA load was higher in the terminal stages of disease compared to the asymptomatic stage. There was a significant association between log10 FIV RNA load and both log10 serum amyloid A concentration and age in unwell FIV-infected cats. This study suggests that viral RNA load and serum amyloid A warrant further investigation as predictors of disease status and prognosis in FIV-infected cats.

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To determine rates of carriage of fluoroquinolone-resistant Escherichia coli and extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) among dogs in a specialist referral hospital and to examine the population structure of the isolates. Fluoroquinolone-resistant faecal E. coli isolates (n232, from 23 of 123 dogs) recovered from hospitalized dogs in a veterinary referral centre in Sydney, Australia, over 140 days in 2009 were characterized by phylogenetic grouping, virulence genotyping and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. The RAPD dendrogram for representative isolates showed one group B2-associated cluster and three group D-associated clusters; each contained isolates with closely related ExPEC-associated virulence profiles. All group B2 faecal isolates represented the O25b-ST131 clonal group and were closely related to recent canine extraintestinal ST131 clinical isolates from the east coast of Australia by RAPD analysis. Hospitalized dogs may carry fluoroquinolone-resistant ExPEC in their faeces, including those representing O25b-ST131.

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Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

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Objective To establish the prevalence of anthelmintic resistance in ovine gastrointestinal nematodes in southern Queensland. Design An observational parasitological study using the faecal egg count reduction test. Methods Sheep farms (n = 20) enrolled in this study met the twin criteria of using worm testing for drench decisions and having concerns about anthelmintic efficacy. On each farm, 105 sheep were randomly allocated to one of six treatment groups or an untreated control group. Faecal samples were collected on day 0 and days 10–14 for worm egg counts and larval differentiation. Single- and multi-combination anthelmintics, persistent and non-persistent, oral liquid or capsule, pour-on and injectable formulations were tested. Monepantel was not tested. Farmers also responded to a questionnaire on drenching practices. Results Haemonchus contortus was the predominant species. Efficacy <95% was recorded on 85% of farms for one or more anthelmintics and on 10% of farms for six anthelmintics. No resistance was identified on three farms. The 4-way combination product was efficacious (n = 4 farms). Napthalophos resistance was detected on one farm only. Resistance to levamisole (42% of farms), moxidectin injection (50% of farms) and the closantel/abamectin combination (67% of farms) was identified. Moxidectin oral was efficacious against Trichostrongylus colubriformis, which was predominant on only one farm. Of the farms tested, 55% ran meat breeds, 60% dosed more than the recommended dose rate and 70% always, mostly or when possible practised a ‘drench and move’ strategy. Conclusion This level of anthelmintic resistance in southern Queensland will severely compromise worm control and force increased use of monepantel.

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This study investigated antimicrobial resistance traits, clonal relationships and epidemiology of Histophilus somni isolated from clinically affected cattle in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. Isolates (n = 53) were subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing against six antimicrobial agents (ceftiofur, enrofloxacin, florfenicol, tetracycline, tilmicosin and tulathromycin) using disc diffusion and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) assays. Clonal relationships were assessed using repetitive sequence PCR and descriptive epidemiological analysis was performed. The H. somni isolates appeared to be geographically clonal, with 27/53 (47%) isolates grouping in one cluster from one Australian state. On the basis of disc diffusion, 34/53 (64%) isolates were susceptible to all antimicrobial agents tested; there was intermediate susceptibility to tulathromycin in 12 isolates, tilmicosin in seven isolates and resistance to tilmicosin in one isolate. Using MIC, all but one isolate was susceptible to all antimicrobial agents tested; the non-susceptible isolate was resistant to tetracycline, but this MIC result could not be compared to disc diffusion, since there are no interpretative guidelines for disc diffusion for H. somni against tetracycline. In this study, there was little evidence of antimicrobial resistance in H. somni isolates from Australian cattle. Disc diffusion susceptibility testing results were comparable to MIC results for most antimicrobial agents tested; however, results for isolates with intermediate susceptibility or resistance to tilmicosin and tulathromycin on disc diffusion should be interpreted with caution in the absence of MIC results.

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Bovine genital campylobacteriosis (BGC), caused by Campylobacter fetus subsp. venerealis, is associated with production losses in cattle worldwide. This study aimed to develop a reliable BGC guinea pig model to facilitate future studies of pathogenicity, abortion mechanisms and vaccine efficacy. Seven groups of five pregnant guinea pigs (1 control per group) were inoculated with one of three strains via intra-peritoneal (IP) or intra-vaginal routes. Samples were examined using culture, PCR and histology. Abortions ranged from 0 to 100 and re-isolation of causative bacteria from sampled sites varied with strain, dose of bacteria and time to abortion. Histology indicated metritis and placentitis, suggesting that the bacteria induce inflammation, placental detachment and subsequent abortion. Variation of virulence between strains was observed and determined by culture and abortion rates. IP administration of C. fetus subsp. venerealis to pregnant guinea pigs is a promising small animal model for the investigation of BGC abortion.

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Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors

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