Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Skin damage to two new mango cultivars during irradiation and cold storage.

Mangoes can express several skin disorders following important postharvest treatments. Responses are often cultivar specific. This paper reports the responses of two new Australian mango cultivars to some of these treatments. 'Honey Gold' mango develops "under skin browning" early during cold storage. This is thought to be partly caused by a discolouration of the latex vessels which then spreads to the surrounding cells. The symptoms appear to be worse in fruit from hotter production areas and that have been cooled to temperatures below 18C soon after harvest. Current commercial recommendations are to cool fruit to 18C, which limits postharvest handling options. Recent trials have confirmed that delayed or slowed cooling after harvest can reduce under skin browning. The defect may also be associated with physical injury to the skin during harvesting and packing. Irradiation is potentially an important disinfestation treatment for fruit fly in Australian mangoes. The 'B74' mango cultivar develops significant skin damage following irradiation, mainly due to discolouration of the cells surrounding the lenticels. Recent results confirmed that fruit harvested directly from the tree into trays without exposure to water or postharvest chemicals are not damaged by irradiation, while commercially harvested and packed fruit are damaged. Several major harvest and postharvest steps appear to increase lenticel sensitivity to irradiation. Further work is required to develop commercially acceptable protocols to facilitate 'Honey Gold' and 'B74' mango distribution and marketing.

Using a process-based model, ParopSys, to predict the impact of climate change on the eucalypt plantation pest Paropsis atomaria.

The eucalypt leaf beetle, Paropsis atomaria Olivier, is an increasingly important pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical eastern Australia. A process-based model, ParopSys, was developed using DYMEXTM and was found to accurately predict the beetle populations. Climate change scenarios within the latest Australian climate model forecast range were run in ParopSys at three locations to predict changes in beetle performance. Relative population peaks of early generations did not change but shifted to earlier in the season. Temperature increases of 1.0 to 1.5 ºC or greater predicted an extra generation of adults at Gympie and Canberra, but not for Lowmead, where increased populations of late season adults were observed under all scenarios. Furthermore, an additional generation of late-larval stages was predicted at temperature increases of greater than 1.0 ºC at Lowmead. Management strategies to address these changes are discussed, as are requirements to improve the predictive capacity of the model.

Climate Change - Risks and Opportunities for the Custard Apple Industry

Climate affects the custard apple industry in a range of ways through impacts on growth, disease risk, fruit set and industry location. Climates in Australia are influenced by surrounding oceans, and are very variable from year to year. However, amidst this variability there are significant trends, with Australian annual mean temperatures increasing since 1910, and particularly since 1950, with night-time temperatures increasing faster (0.11oC/decade) than daytime temperatures (0.06oC/decade). These temperature increases and other climate changes are expected to continue as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, with ongoing impacts on the custard apple industry. Five sites were chosen to assess possible future climate changes : Mareeba, Yeppoon, Bundaberg, Nambour and Lismore, these sites representing the extent of the majority of custard apple production in eastern Australia. A fifth site (Coffs Harbour) was selected as it is south of the current production regions. A mean warming of 0.8 to 1.2oC is anticipated over most of these sites by the year 2030, relative to 1990. This paper assesses the potential effects of climate change on custard apple production, and suggests strategies for adaptation.

Prawn Farmers Responding to Australias Changing Climate

This scoping study will quantitatively evaluate options for the Australian prawn farming industry to meet all or part of its energy needs using renewable technology. Modelling will be used to assess the optimal renewable energy investment strategy for the industry that can be adopted on a farm by farm basis.

Effects of climate change on reproduction,larval development, and adult health of coral trout (Plectropomus spp.)

Climate change is emerging as the single greatest threat to coral-reef ecosystems.The most immediate impacts will be a loss of diversity and changes to fish community composition and may lead to eventual declines in abundance and productivity of key fisheries species. A key component of this research is to assess effects of projected changes in environmental conditions (temperature and ocean acidity) due to climate change on reproduction, growth and development of coral trout (Plectropomus leopardis).Ultimately, this research will fill key knowledge gaps about climate change impacts on larger fishes, which are fundamental to optimizing resilience-based management, and in turn improve the adaptive capacity of industries and communities along the Great Barrier Reef.

Management implications of climate change impacts of fisheries resources

This application was developed in response to the widely recognised concern that climate change will result in changes to marine life and ecosystems, and hence fisheries, throughout Australia with tropical marine ecosystems in northern Australia identified as being particularly vulnerable. These changes are predicted to vary spatially depending on local climate and biophysical processes. Northern Australia is one of three major Australian regions predicted to be impacted. The project addresses the important FRDC strategic challenge of improving the management of aquatic natural resources to ensure their sustainability through research and management that accounts for the effects that climate change may have on the resources.

Positioning the Cut Flower Industry to Respond to the Climate Change

Contribute to the current understanding of climate impacts on cut flower and foliage growing in Queensland.

Participatory adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change on mixed farms

The project uses participatory methods to engage primary producers and advisers in central Queensland, southern Queensland, and north east New South Wales on-farm trials and demonstrations to adapt mixed farming systems to changed climate conditions. The focus is adaptation to climate change but will support abatement of greenhouse gas emissions by building soil carbon, better managing soil nitrogen and soil organic carbon. Data will be collected and integrated with data from Round 1 of the Climate Change Research Program to extend industry understanding beyond a general awareness of ‘climate change’. Nitrous oxide and soil carbon data will help farmers/advisers understand the implications of climate change and develop adaptation strategies for a more sustainable, climate sensitive future.

RWUE4: Responding to Climate in the Central Queensland Irrigation Sector

Increasing the productivity of irrigation water use and reducing energy use in rural irrigation within the Central Highlands and Dawson-Callide irrigation districts.

Climate Q - Develop capacity to adapt to climate change in Queensland

Aims to build adaptive capacity within Qld's mixed farming (cropping/beef) sector.

Carbon grazing: Managing carbon flows for resilient pasture in variable climate

Work with consultants to help graziers understand implications of carbon in their pastures.

A national research program for climate-ready cereals

This project is to develop a program of research to implement existing wheat and sorghum germplasm for potential 'climate-change' environments.

ACIAR Feasibility of farmers managing climate related crop production risk in India

Validation of new Indian seasonal climate forecasting products. In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) kharif crops are heavily dependent on summer monsoon rains, where the timing and intensity of the rains affects crop yield. The majority of farms in AP are small and marginal, making them very vulnerable to yield reductions. Farmers also lack access to relevant information that might enable them to respond to seasonal conditions. Enabling farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecasting would allow them to respond to seasonal variability. To do this, farmers need a forecasting system that indicates a specific management strategy for the upcoming season, and effective and timely communication of the forecast information. Current agro-meteorological advisories in AP are issued on a bi-weekly basis, and they are relevant to an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a village level. Also, the information in the advisories may not be necessarily packaged in way relevant to cropping decisions by farmers. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the skill of seasonal climate forecasts to be issued for the 2008 monsoon season, to assess crop management options in response to seasonal scenarios that capture the range of seasonal climatic variability, to develop and evaluate options for effective communication and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories, and to synthesise and report on options for future research investments into seasonal climate forecasting.

Simulation of parthenium weed canopy under changing climate using L-systems

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is an erect, branched, annual plant of the family Asteraceae. It is native to the tropical Americas, while now widely distributed throughout Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Australasia. Due to its allelopathic and toxic characteristics, parthenium weed has been considered to be a weed of global significance. These effects occur across agriculture (crops and pastures), within natural ecosystems, and has impacts upon health (human and animals). Although integrated weed management (IWM) for parthenium weed has had some success, due to its tolerance and good adaptability to temperature, precipitation, and CO2, this weed has been predicted to become more vigorous under a changing climate resulting in an altered canopy architecture. From the viewpoint of IWM, the altered canopy architecture may be associated with not only improved competitive ability and replacement but also may alter the effectiveness of biocontrol agents and other management strategies. This paper reports on a preliminary study on parthenium weed canopy architecture at three temperature regimes (day/night 22/15 °C, 27/20 °C, and 32/25 °C in thermal time 12/12 hours) and establishes a threedimensional (3D) canopy model using Lindenmayer-systems (L-systems). This experiment was conducted in a series of controlled environment rooms with parthenium weed plants being grown in a heavy clay soil. A sonic digitizer system was used to record the morphology, topology, and geometry of the plants for model construction. The main findings include the determination of the phyllochron which enables the prediction of parthenium weed growth under different temperature regimes and that increased temperature enhances growth and enlarges the plants canopy size and structure. The developed 3D canopy model provides a tool to simulate and predict the weed growth in response to temperature, and can be adjusted for studies of other climatic variables such as precipitation and CO2. Further studies are planned to investigate the effects of other climatic variables, and the predicted changes in the pathogenic biocontrol agent effectiveness.