Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Organic inputs, tillage and rotation practices influence soil health and suppressiveness to soilborne pests and pathogens of ginger.

A field experiment was established in which an amendment of poultry manure and sawdust (200 t/ha) was incorporated into some plots but not others and then a permanent pasture or a sequence of biomass-producing crops was grown with and without tillage, with all biomass being returned to the soil. After 4 years, soil C levels were highest in amended plots, particularly those that had been cropped using minimum tillage, and lowest in non-amended and fallowed plots, regardless of how they had been tilled. When ginger was planted, symphylans caused severe damage to all treatments, indicating that cropping, tillage and organic matter management practices commonly used to improve soil health are not necessarily effective for all crops or soils. During the rotational phase of the experiment, the development of suppressiveness to three key pathogens of ginger was monitored using bioassays. Results for root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne javanica) indicated that for the first 2 years, amended soil was more suppressive than non-amended soil from the same cropping and tillage treatment, whereas under pasture, the amendment only enhanced suppressiveness in the first year. Suppressiveness was generally associated with higher C levels and enhanced biological activity (as measured by the rate of fluorescein diacetate (FDA) hydrolysis and numbers of free-living nematodes). Reduced tillage also enhanced suppressiveness, as gall ratings and egg counts in the second and third years were usually significantly lower in cropped soils under minimum rather than conventional tillage. Additionally, soil that was not disturbed during the process of setting up bioassays was more suppressive than soil which had been gently mixed by hand. Results of bioassays with Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. zingiberi were too inconsistent to draw firm conclusions, but the severity of fusarium yellows was generally higher in fumigated fallow soil than in other treatments, with soil management practices having little impact on disease severity. With regard to Pythium myriotylum, biological factors capable of reducing rhizome rot were present, but were not effective enough to suppress the disease under environmental conditions that were ideal for disease development.

Free Range Hens Use the Range More When the Outdoor Environment Is Enriched.

To evaluate the role of using forage, shade and shelterbelts in attracting birds into the range, three trials were undertaken with free range layers both on a research facility and on commercial farms. Each of the trials on the free range research facility in South Australia used a total of 120 laying hens (Hyline Brown). Birds were housed in an eco-shelter which had 6 internal pens of equal size with a free range area adjoining the shelter. The on-farm trials were undertaken on commercial free range layer farms in the Darling Downs in Southeast Queensland with bird numbers on farms ranging from 2,000-6,800 hens. The first research trial examined the role of shaded areas in the range; the second trial examined the role of forage and the third trial examined the influence of shelterbelts in the range. These treatments were compared to a free range area with no enrichment. Aggressive feather pecking was only observed on a few occasions in all of the trials due to the low bird numbers housed. Enriching the free range environment attracted more birds into the range. Shaded areas were used by 18% of the hens with a tendency (p = 0.07) for more hens to be in the paddock. When forage was provided in paddocks more control birds (55%) were observed in the range in morning than in the afternoon (30%) while for the forage treatments 45% of the birds were in the range both during the morning and afternoon. When shelterbelts were provided there was a significantly (p<0.05) higher % of birds in the range (43% vs. 24%) and greater numbers of birds were observed in areas further away from the poultry house. The results from the on-farm trials mirrored the research trials. Overall 3 times more hens used the shaded areas than the non shaded areas, with slightly more using the shade in the morning than in the afternoon. As the environmental temperature increased the number of birds using the outdoor shade also increased. Overall 17 times more hens used the shelterbelt areas than the control areas, with slightly more using the shelterbelts in the afternoon than in the morning. Approximately 17 times more birds used the forage areas compared to the control area in the corresponding range. There were 8 times more birds using a hay bale enriched area compared to the area with no hay bales. The use of forage sources (including hay bales) were the most successful method on-farm to attract birds into the range followed by shelterbelts and artificial shade. Free range egg farmers are encouraged to provide pasture, shaded areas and shelterbelts to attract birds into the free range.

Hoop pine - Araucaria (plantations)

Hoop pine is a native species and a well-established commercial plantation tree in Queensland that produces a premium grade, quality tropical softwood. It is valued for uniform, knot-free timber with exceptional quality, and used for many commercially important wood products. Hoop pine has a well-established market and is in demand both nationally and internationally. High-grade sawn hoop pine serves the upper end of the domestic market, taking advantage of long lengths of clear wood, and exports include sawn wood and woodchip.

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Wheat biomass and yield increased when populations of the root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) were reduced through sequential rotation of partially resistant winter and summer crops

The root-lesion nematode, Pratylenchus thornei, can reduce wheat yields by >50%. Although this nematode has a broad host range, crop rotation can be an effective tool for its management if the host status of crops and cultivars is known. The summer crops grown in the northern grain region of Australia are poorly characterised for their resistance to P. thornei and their role in crop sequencing to improve wheat yields. In a 4-year field experiment, we prepared plots with high or low populations of P. thornei by growing susceptible wheat or partially resistant canaryseed (Phalaris canariensis); after an 11-month, weed-free fallow, several cultivars of eight summer crops were grown. Following another 15-month, weed-free fallow, P. thornei-intolerant wheat cv. Strzelecki was grown. Populations of P. thornei were determined to 150 cm soil depth throughout the experiment. When two partially resistant crops were grown in succession, e.g. canaryseed followed by panicum (Setaria italica), P. thornei populations were <739/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were 3245 kg/ha. In contrast, after two susceptible crops, e.g. wheat followed by soybean, P. thornei populations were 10 850/kg soil and subsequent wheat yields were just 1383 kg/ha. Regression analysis showed a linear, negative response of wheat biomass and grain yield with increasing P. thornei populations and a predicted loss of 77% for biomass and 62% for grain yield. The best predictor of wheat yield loss was P. thornei populations at 0-90 cm soil depth. Crop rotation can be used to reduce P. thornei populations and increase wheat yield, with greatest gains being made following two partially resistant crops grown sequentially.

Measuring free ellagic acid: influence of extraction conditions on recovery by studying solubility and UV-Visible spectra

Recent investigations into plant tissues have indicated that the free form of the natural polyphenolic antioxidant, ellagic acid (EA), is much more plentiful than first envisaged; consequently a re-assessment of solvent systems for the extraction of this water-insoluble form is needed. As EA solubility and its UV-Vis spectrum, commonly used for detection and quantification, are both governed by pH, an understanding of this dependence is vital if accurate EA measurements are to be achieved. After evaluating the pH effects on the solubility and UV-Vis spectra of commercial EA, an extraction protocol was devised that promoted similar pH conditions for both standard solutions and plant tissue extracts. The extraction so devised followed by HPLC with photodiode-array detection (DAD) provided a simple, sensitive and validated methodology that determined free EA in a variety of plant extracts. The use of 100 % methanol or a triethanolamine-based mixture as the standard dissolving solvents were the best choices, while these higher pH-generating solvents were more efficient in extracting EA from the plants tested with the final choice allied to the plants’ natural acidity. Two of the native Australian plants anise myrtle (Syzygium anisatum) and Kakadu plum (Terminalia ferdinandiana) exhibited high concentrations of free EA. Furthermore, the dual approach to measuring EA UV-Vis spectra made possible an assessment of the effect of acidified eluent on EA spectra when the DAD was employed.