56 resultados para Astronautics in meteorology.
Resumo:
Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.
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Environmental heat can reduce conception rates (the proportion of services that result in pregnancy) in lactating dairy cows. The study objectives were to identify periods of exposure relative to the service date in which environmental heat is most closely associated with conception rates, and to assess whether the total time cows are exposed to high environmental heat within each 24-h period is more closely associated with conception rates than is the maximum environmental heat for each 24-h period. A retrospective observational study was conducted in 25 predominantly Holstein-Friesian commercial dairy herds located in Australia. Associations between weather and conception rates were assessed using 16,878 services performed over a 21-mo period. Services were classified as successful based on rectal palpation. Two measures of heat load were defined for each 24-h period: the maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) for the period, and the number of hours in the 24-h period when the THI was >72. Conception rates were reduced when cows were exposed to a high heat load from the day of service to 6 d after service, and in wk -1. Heat loads in wk -3 to -5 were also associated with reduced conception rates. Thus, management interventions to ameliorate the effects of heat load on conception rates should be implemented at least 5 wk before anticipated service and should continue until at least 1 wk after service. High autocorrelations existed between successive daily values in both measures, and associations between day of heat load relative to service day and conception rates differed substantially when ridge regression was used to account for this autocorrelation. This indicates that when assessing the effects of heat load on conception rates, the autocorrelation in heat load between days should be accounted for in analyses. The results suggest that either weekly averages or totals summarizing the daily heat load are adequate to describe heat load when assessing effects on conception rates in lactating dairy cows.
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This paper reports on a purposive survey study which aimed to identify needs for the development, delivery and evaluation of applied climate education for targeted groups, to improve knowledge and skills to better manage under variable climatic conditions. The survey sample consisted of 80 producers and other industry stakeholders in Australia (including representatives from consulting, agricultural extension and agricultural education sectors), with a 58% response rate to the survey. The survey included an assessment of (i) knowledge levels of the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures, and (ii) skill and ability in interpreting weather and climate parameters. Results showed that despite many of the respondents having more than 20 years experience in their industry, the only formal climate education or training undertaken by most was a 1-day workshop. Over 80% of the applied climate skills listed in the survey were regarded by respondents as essential or important, but only 42% of educators, 30% of consultants and 28% of producers rated themselves as competent in applying such skills. Essential skills were deemed as those that would enable respondents or their clients to be better prepared for the next extended wet or dry meteorological event, and improved capability in identifying and capitalising on key decision points from climate information and a seasonal climate outlook. The complex issue of forecast accuracy is a confounding obstacle for many in the application of climate information and forecasts in management. Addressing this problem by describing forecast 'limitations and skill' can help to overcome this problem. The survey also highlighted specific climatic tactical and strategic information collated from grazing, cropping and agribusiness enterprises, and showed the value of such information from a users perspective.
Resumo:
In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.
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We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.
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This paper is the first of a series that investigates whether new cropping systems with permanent raised beds (PRBs) or Flat land could be successfully used to increase farmers' incomes from rainfed crops in Lombok in Eastern Indonesia. This paper discusses the rice phase of the cropping system. Low grain yields of dry-seeded rice (Oryza sativa) grown on Flat land on Vertisols in the rainfed region of southern Lombok, Eastern Indonesia, are probably mainly due to (a) erratic rainfall (870-1220 mm/yr), with water often limiting at sensitive growth stages, (b) consistently high temperatures (average maximum - 31 C), and (c) low solar radiation. Farmers are therefore poor, and labour is hard and costly, as all operations are manual. Two replicated field experiments were run at Wakan (annual rainfall = 868 mm) and Kawo (1215 mm) for 3 years (2001/2002 to 2003/2004) on Vertisols in southern Lombok. Dry-seeded rice was grown in 4 treatments with or without manual tillage on (a) PRBs, 1.2 m wide, 200 mm high, separated by furrows 300 mm wide, 200 mill deep, with no rice sown in the well-graded furrows, and (b) well-graded Flat land. Excess surface water was harvested from each treatment and used for irrigation after the vegetative stage of the rice. All operations were manual. There were no differences between treatments in grain yield of rice (mean grain yield = 681 g/m(2)) which could be partly explained by total number of tillers/hill and mean panicle length, but not number of productive tillers/hill, plant height or weight of 1000 grains. When the data from both treatments on PRBs and from both treatments on Flat land, each year at each site were analysed, there were also no differences in grain yield of rice (g/m(2)). When rainfall in the wet season up to harvest was over 1000 mm (Year 2; Wakan, Kawo), or plants were water-stressed during crop establishment (Year 1; Wakan) or during grain-fill (Year 3: Kawo), there were significant differences in grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) between treatments; generally the grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) on PRBs with or without tillage was less than that on Flat land with or without tillage. However, when the data from both treatments on PRBs and from both treatments on Flat land, each year at each site, were analysed, the greater grain yield of dry-seeded rice on Flat land (mean yield 1 092 g/1.5 m(2)) than that on PRBs (mean 815 g/1.5 m(2)) was mainly because there were 25% more plants on Flat land. Overall when the data in the 2 outer rows and the 2 inner rows on PRBs were each combined, there was a higher number of productive tillers in the combined outer rows (mean 20.7 tillers/hill) compared with that in the combined inner rows on each PRB (mean 18.2 tillers/hill). However, there were no differences in grain yield between combined rows (mean 142 g/m row). Hence with a gap of 500 mm (the distance between the outer rows of plants on adjacent raised beds), plants did not compensate in grain yield for missing plants in furrows. This suggests that rice (a) also sown in furrows, or (b) sown in 7 rows with narrower row-spacing, or (c) sown in 6 rows with slightly wider row-spacing, and narrower gap between outer rows on adjacent beds, may further increase grain yield (g/1.5 m(2)) in this system of PRBs. The growth and the grain yield (y in g/m(2)) of rainfed rice (with rainfall on-site the only source of water for irrigation) depended mainly on the rainfall (x in mm) in the wet season up to harvest (due either to site or year) with y = 1. 1x -308; r(2) = 0.54; p < 0.005. However, 280 mm (i.e. 32%) of the rainfall was not directly used to produce grain (i.e. when y = 0 g/m(2)). Manual tillage did not affect growth and grain yield of rice (g/m(2); g/1.5 m(2)), either on PRB or on Flat land.
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Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.
Resumo:
Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.
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Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.
Resumo:
Time to first root in cuttings varies under different environmental conditions and understanding these differences is critical for optimizing propagation of commercial forestry species. Temperature environment (15, 25, 30 or 352C) had no effect on the cellular stages in root formation of the Slash * Caribbean Pine hybrid over 16 weeks as determined by histology. Initially callus cells formed in the cortex, then tracheids developed and formed primordia leading to external roots. However, speed of development followed a growth curve with the fastest development occurring at 25C and slowest at 15C with rooting percentages at week 12 of 80 and 0% respectively. Cutting survival was good in the three cooler temperature regimes (>80%) but reduced to 59% at 35C. Root formation appeared to be dependant on the initiation of tracheids because all un-rooted cuttings had callus tissue but no tracheids, irrespective of temperature treatment and clone.
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Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable management in semi-arid rangelands. We present empirical evidence from a large, long-term grazing trial in northern Australia on the relative performance of constant heavy stocking, moderate stocking at long-term carrying capacity and variable stocking in coping with climate variability over a range of rainfall years. Moderate stocking gave good economic returns, maintained pasture condition and minimised soil loss and runoff. Heavy stocking was neither sustainable nor profitable in the long term. Variable stocking generally performed well but suffered economic loss and some decline in pasture condition in the transition from good to poor years. Importantly, our results show that sustainable and profitable management are compatible in semi-arid rangelands.
Resumo:
We compared daily net radiation (Rn) estimates from 19 methods with the ASCE-EWRI Rn estimates in two climates: Clay Center, Nebraska (sub-humid) and Davis, California (semi-arid) for the calendar year. The performances of all 20 methods, including the ASCE-EWRI Rn method, were then evaluated against Rn data measured over a non-stressed maize canopy during two growing seasons in 2005 and 2006 at Clay Center. Methods differ in terms of inputs, structure, and equation intricacy. Most methods differ in estimating the cloudiness factor, emissivity (e), and calculating net longwave radiation (Rnl). All methods use albedo (a) of 0.23 for a reference grass/alfalfa surface. When comparing the performance of all 20 Rn methods with measured Rn, we hypothesized that the a values for grass/alfalfa and non-stressed maize canopy were similar enough to only cause minor differences in Rn and grass- and alfalfa-reference evapotranspiration (ETo and ETr) estimates. The measured seasonal average a for the maize canopy was 0.19 in both years. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 resulted in 6% overestimation of Rn. Using a = 0.19 instead of a = 0.23 for ETo and ETr estimations, the 6% difference in Rn translated to only 4% and 3% differences in ETo and ETr, respectively, supporting the validity of our hypothesis. Most methods had good correlations with the ASCE-EWRI Rn (r2 > 0.95). The root mean square difference (RMSD) was less than 2 MJ m-2 d-1 between 12 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Clay Center and between 14 methods and the ASCE-EWRI Rn at Davis. The performance of some methods showed variations between the two climates. In general, r2 values were higher for the semi-arid climate than for the sub-humid climate. Methods that use dynamic e as a function of mean air temperature performed better in both climates than those that calculate e using actual vapor pressure. The ASCE-EWRI-estimated Rn values had one of the best agreements with the measured Rn (r2 = 0.93, RMSD = 1.44 MJ m-2 d-1), and estimates were within 7% of the measured Rn. The Rn estimates from six methods, including the ASCE-EWRI, were not significantly different from measured Rn. Most methods underestimated measured Rn by 6% to 23%. Some of the differences between measured and estimated Rn were attributed to the poor estimation of Rnl. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of Rnl on Rn, ETo, and ETr. The Rnl effect on Rn was linear and strong, but its effect on ETo and ETr was subsidiary. Results suggest that the Rn data measured over green vegetation (e.g., irrigated maize canopy) can be an alternative Rn data source for ET estimations when measured Rn data over the reference surface are not available. In the absence of measured Rn, another alternative would be using one of the Rn models that we analyzed when all the input variables are not available to solve the ASCE-EWRI Rn equation. Our results can be used to provide practical information on which method to select based on data availability for reliable estimates of daily Rn in climates similar to Clay Center and Davis.
Resumo:
Genotype-environment interactions (GEI) limit genetic gain for complex traits such as tolerance to drought. Characterization of the crop environment is an important step in understanding GEI. A modelling approach is proposed here to characterize broadly (large geographic area, long-term period) and locally (field experiment) drought-related environmental stresses, which enables breeders to analyse their experimental trials with regard to the broad population of environments that they target. Water-deficit patterns experienced by wheat crops were determined for drought-prone north-eastern Australia, using the APSIM crop model to account for the interactions of crops with their environment (e.g. feedback of plant growth on water depletion). Simulations based on more than 100 years of historical climate data were conducted for representative locations, soils, and management systems, for a check cultivar, Hartog. The three main environment types identified differed in their patterns of simulated water stress around flowering and during grain-filling. Over the entire region, the terminal drought-stress pattern was most common (50% of production environments) followed by a flowering stress (24%), although the frequencies of occurrence of the three types varied greatly across regions, years, and management. This environment classification was applied to 16 trials relevant to late stages testing of a breeding programme. The incorporation of the independently-determined environment types in a statistical analysis assisted interpretation of the GEI for yield among the 18 representative genotypes by reducing the relative effect of GEI compared with genotypic variance, and helped to identify opportunities to improve breeding and germplasm-testing strategies for this region.
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Project Objectives: 1. Improving yield and water use efficiency of the wheat crop, the backbone of the Australia grains industry, by better matching management, variety, soil and climate. The aim is thus increasing kg grain/ha per mm evapotranspiration and kg grain/ha per mm rain. 2. Improving land and water productivity and profit by better arrangement of the components of the cropping system. This involves better allocation of farm resources (land, water, machinery, labour) and identifying strategies that account for trade-offs between profit and risk. The aim is thus improving $/ha per year and mm rain in a risk framework.
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Increasing the productivity of irrigation water use and reducing energy use in rural irrigation within the Central Highlands and Dawson-Callide irrigation districts.