Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February–April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November–January) for the Zululand site and spring (August–October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents.

Characterization of maize growing environments in eastern and southern Africa using the APSIM model

Maize grown in eastern and southern Africa experiences random occurrences of drought. This uncertainty creates difficulty in developing superior varieties and their agronomy. Characterisation of drought types and their frequencies could help in better defining selection environments for improving resistance to drought. We used the well tested APSIM maize model to characterise major drought stress patterns and their frequencies across six countries of the region including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The database thus generated covered 35 sites, 17 to 86 years of daily climate records, 3 varieties and 3 planting densities from a total of 11,174 simulations. The analysis identified four major drought environment types including those characterised by low-stress which occurred in 42% of the years, mid-season drought occurring in 15% of the years, late-terminal stress which occurred in 22% of the years and early-terminal drought occurring in 21% of the years. These frequencies varied in relation to sites, genotypes and management. The simulations showed that early terminal stress could result in a yield reduction of 70% compared with low-stress environmental types. The study presents the importance of environmental characterization in contributing to maize improvement in eastern and southern Africa.

Distribution and characterization of Poleroviruses affecting food legumes in Central/West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) region and Australia

During the past 15 years, surveys to identify virus diseases affecting cool-season food legume crops in Australia and 11 CWANA countries (Algeria, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Uzbekistan and Yemen) were conducted. More than 20,000 samples were collected and tested for the presence of 14 legume viruses by the tissue-blot immunoassay (TBIA) using a battery of antibodies, including the following Luteovirus monoclonal antibodies (McAbs): a broad-spectrum legume Luteovirus (5G4), BLRV, BWYV, SbDV and CpCSV. A total of 195 Luteovirus samples were selected for further testing by RT-PCR using 7 primers (one is degenerate, and can detect a wide range of Luteoviridae virus species and the other six are species-specific primers) at the Virology Laboratory, QDAF, Australia, during 2014. A total of 145 DNA fragments (represented 105 isolates) were sequenced. The following viruses were characterized based on molecular analysis: BLRV from Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Uzbekistan; SbDV from Australia, Syria and Uzbekistan; BWYV from Algeria, China, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Uzbekistan; CABYV from Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan and Uzbekistan; CpCSV from Algeria, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia, and unknown Luteoviridae species from Algeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Yemen. This study has clearly shown that there are a number of Polerovirus species, in addition to BWYV, all can produce yellowing/stunting symptoms in pulses (e.g. CABYV, CpCSV, and other unknown Polerovirus species). Based on our knowledge this is the first report of CABYV affecting food legumes. Moreover, there was about 95% agreement between results obtained from serological analysis (TBIA) and molecular analysis for the detection of BLRV and SbDV. Whereas, TBIA results were not accurate when using CpCSV and BWYV McAbs . It seems that the McAbs for CpCSV and BWYV used in this study and those available worldwide, are not virus species specific. Both antibodies, reacted with other Polerovirus species (e.g. CABYV, and unknown Polerovirus). This highlights the need for more accurate characterization of existing antibodies and where necessary the development of better, virus-specific antibodies to enable their use for accurate diagnosis of Poleroviruses.