Carotenoid content and flesh color of selected banana cultivars growing in Australia.

Background: The problems of vitamin A deficiency and chronic diseases have emerged in recent years in some countries in the Micronesian region. These problems are associated with the dietary shift towards imported processed foods and lifestyle changes. Research in the Federated States of Micronesia indicates that yellow- and orange-fleshed banana cultivars contain significant levels of provitamin A carotenoids. Objective: To identify further banana cultivars that may be promoted to alleviate vitamin A deficiency among children and women and chronic disease problems among adults. Methods: Ripe fruit of banana cultivars growing in Australia (sourced mostly from a field research collection) were assessed for carotenoid content and flesh color. Ten cultivars with yellow or yellow/orange flesh color (including common cultivars of Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands) were selected and compared with two cream-fleshed cultivars, including Williams, of the Cavendish group, the most commonly marketed banana worldwide. Carotenoid content was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Flesh color was analyzed by HunterLab colorimetry. Results: The yellow/orange-fleshed Asupina (a Fe'i banana) contained the highest level (1,412 μg/100 g) of trans β-carotene, the most important provitamin A carotenoid, a level more than 20 times higher than that of Williams. All 10 yellow or yellow/orange-fleshed cultivars (Asupina, Kirkirnan, Pisang Raja, Horn Plantain, Pacific Plantain, Kluai Khai Bonng, Wain, Red Dacca, Lakatan, and Sucrier) had significant carotenoid levels, potentially meeting half or all of the estimated vitamin A requirements for a nonpregnant, nonlactating adult woman within normal consumption patterns. All were acceptable for taste and other attributes. The cream-fleshed cultivars had minimal carotenoid levels. There was a positive significant correlation between carotenoid content and deeper yellow/orange coloration indicators. Conclusions: These yellow- or yellow/orange-fleshed carotenoid-rich banana cultivars should be considered for promotion in order to alleviate vitamin A deficiency and chronic disease in susceptible target communities and to provide variety and enjoyment as exotic fruits in both developing and industrialized countries.

Sustaining productivity of a Vertosol at Warra, Queensland, with fertilisers, no-tillage or legumes. 9. Production and nitrogen benefits from mixed grass and legume pastures in rotation with wheat

Reduced supplies of nitrogen (N) in many soils of southern Queensland that were cropped exhaustively with cereals over many decades have been the focus of much research to avoid declines in profitability and sustainability of farming systems. A 45-month period of mixed grass (purple pigeon grass, Setaria incrassata Stapf; Rhodes grass, Chloris gayana Kunth.) and legume (lucerne, Medicago sativa L.; annual medics, M. scutellata L. Mill. and M. truncatula Gaertn.) pasture was one of several options that were compared at a fertility-depleted Vertosol at Warra, southern Queensland, to improve grain yields or increase grain protein concentration of subsequent wheat crops. Objectives of the study were to measure the productivity of a mixed grass and legume pasture grown over 45 months (cut and removed over 36 months) and its effects on yield and protein concentrations of the following wheat crops. Pasture production (DM t/ha) and aboveground plant N yield (kg/ha) for grass, legume (including a small amount of weeds) and total components of pasture responded linearly to total rainfall over the duration of each of 3 pastures sown in 1986, 1987 and 1988. Averaged over the 3 pastures, each 100 mm of rainfall resulted in 0.52 t/ha of grass, 0.44 t/ha of legume and 0.97 t/ha of total pasture DM, there being little variation between the 3 pastures. Aboveground plant N yield of the 3 pastures ranged from 17.2 to 20.5 kg/ha per 100 mm rainfall. Aboveground legume N in response to total rainfall was similar (10.6 - 13.2 kg/ha. 100 mm rainfall) across the 3 pastures in spite of very different populations of legumes and grasses at establishment. Aboveground grass N yield was 5.2 - 7.0 kg/ha per 100mm rainfall. In most wheat crops following pasture, wheat yields were similar to that of unfertilised wheat except in 1990 and 1994, when grain yields were significantly higher but similar to that for continuous wheat fertilised with 75 kg N/ha. In contrast, grain protein concentrations of most wheat crops following pasture responded positively, being substantially higher than unfertilised wheat but similar to that of wheat fertilised with 75 kg N/ha. Grain protein averaged over all years of assay was increased by 25 - 40% compared with that of unfertilised wheat. Stored water supplies after pasture were < 134mm (< 55% of plant available water capacity); for most assay crops water storages were 67 - 110 mm, an equivalent wet soil depth of only 0.3 - 0.45 m. Thus, the crop assays of pasture benefits were limited by low water supply to wheat crops. Moreover, the severity of common root rot in wheat crop was not reduced by pasture - wheat rotation.

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1 year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.

Responses in carcass lean pH at 24 hours post-mortem in lines of Large White pigs selected for growth rate on a fixed ration over a set time

A restricted maximum likelihood analysis applied to an animal model showed no significant differences (P > 0.05) in pH value of the longissimus dorsi measured at 24 h post-mortem (pH24) between high and low lines of Large White pigs selected over 4 years for post-weaning growth rate on restricted feeding. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between pH24 and production and carcass traits were estimated using all performance testing records combined with the pH24 measurements (5.05-7.02) on slaughtered animals. The estimate of heritability for pH24 was moderate (0.29 ± 0.18). Genetic correlations between pH24 and production or carcass composition traits, except for ultrasonic backfat (UBF), were not significantly different from zero. UBF had a moderate, positive genetic correlation with pH24 (0.24 ± 0.33). These estimates of genetic correlations affirmed that selection for increased growth rate on restricted feeding is likely to result in limited changes in pH24 and pork quality since the selection does not put a high emphasis on reduced fatness.

New annual and short-lived perennial pasture legumes for Australian agriculture--15 years of revolution

Fifteen years ago subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) and annual medics (Medicago spp.) dominated annual pasture legume sowings in southern Australia, while limited pasture legume options existed for cropping areas of subtropical Australia. Since then a number of sustainability and economic challenges to existing farming systems have emerged, exposing shortcomings in these species and the lack of legume biodiversity. Public breeding institutions have responded to these challenges by developing 58 new annual and short-lived perennial pasture legumes with adaptation to both existing and new farming systems. This has involved commercialisation of new species and overcoming deficiencies in traditional species. Traits incorporated in legumes of Mediterranean Basin origin for the Mediterranean, temperate and southern subtropical climates of Australia include deeper root systems, protection from false breaks (germination-inducing rainfall events followed by death from drought), a range of hardseed levels, acid-soil tolerant root nodule symbioses, tolerance to pests and diseases and provision of lower cost seed through ease of seed harvesting and processing. Ten new species, French serradella (Ornithopus sativus), biserrula (Biserrula pelecinus), sulla (Hedysarum coronarium), gland (Trifolium glanduliferum), arrowleaf (Trifolium vesiculosum), eastern star (Trifolium dasyurum) and crimson (Trifolium incarnatum) clovers and sphere (Medicago sphaerocarpos), button (Medicago orbicularis) and hybrid disc (Medicago tornata x Medicago littoralis) medics have been commercialised. Improved cultivars have also been developed of subterranean (T. subterraneum), balansa (Trifolium michelianum), rose (Trifolium hirtum), Persian (Trifolium resupinatum) and purple (Trifolium purpureum) clovers, burr (Medicago polymorpha), strand (M. littoralis), snail (Medicago scutellata) and barrel (Medicago truncatula) medics and yellow serradella (Ornithopus compressus). New tropical legumes for pasture phases in subtropical cropping areas include butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea), burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum) and perennial lablab (Lablab purpureus). Other species and cultivars of Mediterranean species are likely to be released soon. The contributions of genetic resources, rhizobiology, pasture ecology and agronomy, plant pathology, entomology, plant chemistry and animal science have been paramount to this success. A farmer survey in Western Australia has shown widespread adoption of the new pasture legumes, while adoption of new tropical legumes has also been high in cropping areas of the subtropics. This trend is likely to increase due to the increasing cost of inorganic nitrogen, the need to combat herbicide-resistant crop weeds and improved livestock prices. Mixtures of these legumes allows for more robust pastures buffered against variable seasons, soils, pests, diseases and management decisions. This paper discusses development of the new pasture legumes, their potential use and deficiencies in the current suite. 'Ground–breaking Stuff’- Proceedings of the 13th Australian Society of Agronomy Conference, 10-14 September 2006, Perth, Western Australia.

A systems evaluation of high-input management using fortified molasses for beef production in Australia's dry tropics

The potential of beef producers to profitably produce 500-kg steers at 2.5 years of age in northern Australia's dry tropics to meet specifications of high-value markets, using a high-input management (HIM) system was examined. HIM included targeted high levels of fortified molasses supplementation, short seasonal mating and the use of growth promotants. Using herds of 300-400 females plus steer progeny at three sites, HIM was compared at a business level to prevailing best-practice, strategic low-input management (SLIM) in which there is a relatively low usage of energy concentrates to supplement pasture intake. The data presented for each breeding-age cohort within management system at each site includes: annual pregnancy rates (range: 14-99%), time of conception, mortalities (range: 0-10%), progeny losses between confirmed pregnancy and weaning (range: 0-29%), and weaning rates (range: 14-92%) over the 2-year observation. Annual changes in weight and relative net worth were calculated for all breeding and non-breeding cohorts. Reasons for outcomes are discussed. Compared with SLIM herds, both weaning weights and annual growth were >= 30 kg higher, enabling 86-100% of HIM steers to exceed 500 kg at 2.5 years of age. Very few contemporary SLIM steers reached this target. HIM was most profitably applied to steers. Where HIM was able to achieve high pregnancy rates in yearlings, its application was recommended in females. Well managed, appropriate HIM systems increased profits by around $15/adult equivalent at prevailing beef and supplement prices. However, a 20% supplement price rise without a commensurate increase in values for young slaughter steers would generally eliminate this advantage. This study demonstrated the complexity of pro. table application of research outcomes to commercial business, even when component research suggests that specific strategies may increase growth and reproductive efficiency and/or be more pro. table. Because of the higher level of management required, higher costs and returns, and higher susceptibility to market changes and disease, HIM systems should only be applied after SLIM systems are well developed. To increase profitability, any strategy must ultimately either increase steer growth and sale values and/or enable a shift to high pregnancy rates in yearling heifers.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

The effects of high stocking rates on milk production from dryland and irrigated Mediterranean pastures

An experiment using herds of similar to 20 cows (farmlets) assessed the effects of high stocking rates on production and profitability of feeding systems based on dryland and irrigated perennial ryegrass-based pastures in a Mediterranean environment in South Australia over 4 years. A target level of milk production of 7000 L/cow.year was set, based on predicted intakes of 2.7 t DM/cow.year as concentrates, pasture intakes from 1.5 to 2.7 t/cow.year and purchased fodder. In years 1 and 2, up to 1.5 t DM/cow.year of purchased fodder was used and in years 3 and 4 the amounts were increased if necessary to enable levels of milk production per cow to be maintained at target levels. Cows in dryland farmlets calved in March to May inclusive and were stocked at 2.5, 2.9, 3.3, 3.6 and 4.1 cows/ha, while those in irrigated farmlets calved in August to October inclusive and were stocked at 4.1, 5.2, 6.3 and 7.4 cows/ha. In the first 2 years, when inputs of purchased fodder were limited, milk production per cow was reduced with higher stocking rates (P < 0.01), but in years 3 and 4 there were no differences. Mean production was 7149 kg/cow.year in years 1 and 2, and 8162 kg/cow.year in years 3 and 4. Production per hectare was very closely related to stocking rate in all years (P < 0.01), increasing from 18 to 34 t milk/ha.year for dryland farmlets (1300 to 2200 kg milk solids/ha) and from 30 to 60 t milk/ha.year for irrigated farmlets (2200 to 4100 kg milk solids/ha). Almost all of these increases were attributed to the increases in grain and purchased fodder inputs associated with the increases in stocking rate. Net pasture accumulation rates and pasture harvest were generally not altered with stocking rate, though as stocking rate increased there was a change to more of the pasture being grazed and less conserved in both dryland and irrigated farmlets. Total pasture harvest averaged similar to 8 and 14 t DM/ha.year for dryland and irrigated pastures, respectively. An exception was at the highest stocking rate under irrigation, where pugging during winter was associated with a 14% reduction in annual pasture growth. There were several indications that these high stocking rates may not be sustainable without substantial changes in management practice. There were large and positive nutrient balances and associated increases in soil mineral content (P < 0.01), especially for phosphorus and nitrate nitrogen, with both stocking rate and succeeding years. Levels under irrigation were considerably higher (up to 90 and 240 mg/kg of soil for nitrate nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively) than under dryland pastures (60 and 140 mg/kg, respectively). Soil organic carbon levels did not change with stocking rate, indicating a high level of utilisation of forage grown. Weed ingress was also high (to 22% DM) in all treatments and especially in heavily stocked irrigated pastures during winter. It was concluded the higher stocking rates used exceeded those that are feasible for Mediterranean pastures in this environment and upper levels of stocking are suggested to be 2.5 cows/ha for dryland pastures and 5.2 cows/ha for irrigated pastures. To sustain these suggested stocking rates will require further development of management practices to avoid large increases in soil minerals and weed invasion of pastures.

Are we focussing wild dog control the wrong time of the year and going about it the wrong way?

Our evaluation of the predation of calves by wild dogs in the 1990s found that the number of calves killed and frequency of years that calf losses occurred, is higher in baited areas compared to adjoining, non-baited areas of similar size. Calf losses were highest with poor seasonal conditions, low prey numbers and where baited areas were re-colonised by wild dogs soon after baiting. We monitored wild dog “activity” before and after 35 baiting programs in southwest, central west and far north Queensland between 1994 and 2006 and found change in activity depends on the timing of the baiting. Baiting programs conducted between October and April show an increase in dog activity post-baiting (average increase of 219.1%, SEM 100.9, n=9, for programs conducted in October and November; an increase of 82.5%, SEM 54.5, n=7 for programs conducted in March and April; and a decrease in activity of 46.5%, SEM 10.2, n=19 for programs conducted between May and September). We monitored the seasonal activity and dispersal of wild dogs fitted with satellite transmitters 2006 to present. We have found that: • Activity of breeding males and females, whilst rearing and nurturing pups, is focussed around the den between July to September and away from areas of human activity. Activity of breeding groups appears to avoid locations of human activity until juveniles become independent (around late November). • While independent and solitary yearlings often have unstable, elliptically-shaped territories in less favourable areas, members of breeding groups have territories that appear seasonally stable and circular located in more favourable habitats. • Extra-territorial forays of solitary yearlings can be huge, in excess of 200 km. The largest forays we have monitored have occurred when the activity of pack members is focussed around rearing pups and juveniles (August to November). • Where wild dogs have dispersed or had significant territorial expansion, it has occurred within days of baiting programs and onto recently baited properties. • The wild dogs we have tracked have followed netting barrier fences for hundreds of kilometres and lived adjacent to or bypassed numerous grids in the barrier. Based on these studies, we conclude that a proportion of the perceived decline in dog activity between May and September, post baiting, is due to a decline in dog activity in areas associated with human activity. The increase in dog activity post-baiting between October and May (and increased calf predation on baited properties) is likely caused by wild dogs dispersing (juveniles and yearlings) or expanding (adults) their territory into baited, now ‘vacant’, areas. We hypothesise that baiting programs should be focussed in summer and autumn commencing late November as soon as juveniles become independent of adults. We also hypothesise that instead of large, annual or semi-annual baiting programs, laying the same number of baits over 4-6 weeks may be more effective. These hypotheses need to be tested through an adaptive management project.

Biocontrol of Chromolaena odorata in Papua New Guinea

The status of biocontrol of Chromolaena odorata, a weed of significant agricultural importance in Papua New Guinea, is assessed. Chromolaena is confirmed present in 391 sites in 12 of the 20 provinces of PNG. A collaborative project on the biocontrol of chromolaena involving the PNG National Agricultural Research Institute and the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries began in1998, with funding from ACIAR. Three agents, the moth Pareuchaetes pseudoinsulata, which has established only in Morobe Province, the stem-galling fly Cecidochares connexa, which has established in all 12 provinces and the leaf mining fly Calycomyza eupatorivora, which is currently being monitored for establishment, have been introduced. Cecidochares connexa has been the most effective of the agents so far and it has spread more than 100 km in five years from some release sites. Preliminary field data have shown that the numbers of galls per plant have increased, coupled with a decrease in plant height and percent plant cover. In parts of New Ireland and Sandaun provinces, C. connexa has controlled chromolaena, resulting in the regeneration of natural vegetation. In addition, some food gardens have been re-established where chromolaena had once taken over. Consequently, food production has increased and income generated from selling agricultural produce has increased two fold. There is also less time spent in clearing chromolaena from food gardens and plantations. The effectiveness of C. connexa has brought relief to many communities, which are helping in the distribution of the gall fly to other areas affected by chromolaena.

Suppression of populations of Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), with a novel blowfly trap

The Australian sheep blowfly, Lucilia cuprina initiates more than 85% of fly strikes on sheep in Australia with an estimated average annual cost of A$280 million to the Australian wool industry. LuciTrap® is a commercially available, selective trap for L. cuprina consisting of a plastic bucket with multiple fly entry cones and a synthetic attractant. The impact of LuciTrap on populations of L. cuprina on sheep properties in five Australian states was evaluated by comparing L. cuprina populations on paired properties with and without LuciTraps over seasons when significant fly populations could be expected. Twenty-four comparisons (trials) were conducted over four years. During times of ‘higher fly density’ (when the 48 h geometric mean of trap catches on the control property was greater than five L. cuprina), the overall geometric mean trap catches for control and trapped properties differed significantly (P<0.001) with mean trap catches of 19.4 and 7.74 L. cuprina respectively. The selectivity of the LuciTrap was confirmed with 59% of all trapped flies being L. cuprina. Chrysomya spp. and Calliphora spp. constituted 9.3% and 1.1% of the catches with a variety of other flies (mainly Sarcophagidae and Muscidae) providing the remainder (31%). L. sericata was only trapped in Tasmania and made up 7.7% of the Lucilia spp. catch in this State. Seventy-two percent of the trapped L. cuprina were female. The deployment of LuciTrap on sheep properties at one trap per 100 sheep from the beginning of the anticipated fly season suppressed the populations of L. cuprina by 60% compared to matched control properties. The LuciTrap is a selective and easy to use fly trap and constitutes an effective, non-insecticidal tool for use in integrated management programs for L. cuprina.

Domestication for Conservation of an Endangered Species: The Case of the Wollemi Pine

A small population of tall slender conifers was discovered in 1994 in a deep rainforest canyon of the Wollemi National Park, New SouthWales, Australia. The living trees closely resembled fossils that were more than 65 million years old, and this ‘living fossil’ was recognised as a third extant genus in the Araucariaceae (Araucaria, Agathis and now Wollemia). The species was named the Wollemi pine (W. nobilis). Extensive searches uncovered very few populations, with the total number of adult trees being less than 100. Ex situ collections were quickly established in Sydney as part of the Wollemi Pine Recovery Plan. The majority of the ex situ population was later transferred to our custom-built facility in Queensland for commercial multiplication. Domestication has relied very heavily on the species’ amenability to vegetative propagation because seed collection from the natural populations is dangerous, expensive, and undesirable for conservation reasons. Early propagation success was poor, with only about 25% of cuttings producing roots. However, small increases in propagation success have a very large impact on a domestication program because plant production can be modelled on an exponential curve where each rooted cutting develops into a mother plant that, in turn, provides more rooted cuttings. An extensive research program elevated rooting percentages to greater than 80% and also provided in vitro methods for plant multiplication. These successes have enabled international release of the Wollemi pine as a new and attractive species for ornamental horticulture.

A review of Australian classical biological control of weeds programs and research activities over the past 12 years

Considerable progress has been made towards the successful classical biological control of many of Australia’s exotic weeds over the past decade. Some 43 new arthropod or pathogen agents were released in 19 projects. Effective biological control was achieved in several projects with the outstanding successes being the control of rubber vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, and bridal creeper, Asparagus asparagoides. Significant developments also occurred in target prioritization, procedures for target and agent approval, funding, infrastructure and cooperation between agencies. Scientific developments included greater emphasis on climate matching, plant and agent phylogeny, molecular diagnostics, agent prioritization and agent evaluation.

Sugarcane smut after three years: a policy retrospective.

The detection of sugarcane smut disease (Ustilago scitaminea) in the Bundaberg-Childers region of eastern Australia in 2006 triggered a comprehensive and united response from BSES Limited, Queensland Government and CANEGROWERS. The response to sugarcane smut in the Bundaberg-Childers area was the first test for the Emergency Plant Pest Response Deed, an agreement between Australian governments and plant industries to facilitate a response to a plant pest incursion. As part of this response and the subsequent inquiry, economic models of the likely pattern of spread and cost of the smut epidemic were prepared. This paper reviews the predictions of those models in the light of the subsequent three years' experience. It examines reasons for divergence from the modelled outcomes, some of which were good approximations of actual experience.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient transport from cropping systems on Red Ferrosols in tropical northern Australia.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss were assessed on a Red Ferrosol in tropical Australia over 3 years. The experiment was conducted using bounded, 100-m(2) field plots cropped to peanuts, maize, or grass. A bare plot, without cover or crop, was also instigated as an extreme treatment. Results showed the importance of cover in reducing runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss from these soils. Runoff ranged from 13% of incident rainfall for the conventional cultivation to 29% under bare conditions during the highest rainfall year, and was well correlated with event rainfall and rainfall energy. Soil loss ranged from 30 t/ha. year under bare conditions to <6 t/ha. year under cropping. Nutrient losses of 35 kg N and 35 kg P/ha. year under bare conditions and 17 kg N and 11 kg P/ha. year under cropping were measured. Soil carbon analyses showed a relationship with treatment runoff, suggesting that soil properties influenced the rainfall runoff response. The cropping systems model PERFECT was calibrated using runoff, soil loss, and soil water data. Runoff and soil loss showed good agreement with observed data in the calibration, and soil water and yield had reasonable agreement. Longterm runs using historical weather data showed the episodic nature of runoff and soil loss events in this region and emphasise the need to manage land using protective measures such as conservation cropping practices. Farmers involved in related, action-learning activities wished to incorporate conservation cropping findings into their systems but also needed clear production benefits to hasten practice change.