32 resultados para 010401 Applied Statistics


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Grass (monocots) and non-grass (dicots) proportions in ruminant diets are important nutritionally because the non-grasses are usually higher in nutritive value, particularly protein, than the grasses, especially in tropical pastures. For ruminants grazing tropical pastures where the grasses are C-4 species and most non-grasses are C-3 species, the ratio of C-13/C-12 in diet and faeces, measured as delta C-13 parts per thousand, is proportional to dietary non-grass%. This paper describes the development of a faecal near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibration equation for predicting faecal delta C-13 from which dietary grass and non-grass proportions can be calculated. Calibration development used cattle faeces derived from diets containing only C-3 non-grass and C-4 grass components, and a series of expansion and validation steps was employed to develop robustness and predictive reliability. The final calibration equation contained 1637 samples and faecal delta C-13 range (parts per thousand) of [12.27]-[27.65]. Calibration statistics were: standard error of calibration (SEC) of 0.78, standard error of cross-validation (SECV) of 0.80, standard deviation (SD) of reference values of 3.11 and R-2 of 0.94. Validation statistics for the final calibration equation applied to 60 samples were: standard error of prediction (SEP) of 0.87, bias of -0.15, R-2 of 0.92 and RPD of 3.16. The calibration equation was also tested on faeces from diets containing C-4 non-grass species or temperate C-3 grass species. Faecal delta C-13 predictions indicated that the spectral basis of the calibration was not related to C-13/C-12 ratios per se but to consistent differences between grasses and non-grasses in chemical composition and that the differences were modified by photosynthetic pathway. Thus, although the calibration equation could not be used to make valid faecal delta C-13 predictions when the diet contained either C-3 grass or C-4 non-grass, it could be used to make useful estimates of dietary non-grass proportions. It could also be ut :sed to make useful estimates of non-grass in mixed C-3 grass/non-grass diets by applying a modified formula to calculate non-grass from predicted faecal delta C-13. The development of a robust faecal-NIR calibration equation for estimating non-grass proportions in the diets of grazing cattle demonstrated a novel and useful application of NIR spectroscopy in agriculture.

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Numerous tests have been used to measure beef cattle temperament, but limited research has addressed the relationship between such tests and whether temperament can be modified. One-hundred-and-forty-four steers were given one of three human handling and yarding experiences on six occasions during a 12-month grazing period post-weaning (backgrounding): Good handling/yarding, Poor handling/yarding and Minimal handling/yarding. At the end of this phase the cattle were lot-fed for 78 days, with no handling/yarding treatments imposed, before being transported for commercial slaughter. Temperament was assessed at the start of the experiment, during backgrounding and lot-feeding by flight speed (FS) and a fear of humans test, which measured the proximity to a stimulus person (zone average; ZA), the closest approach to the person (CA) and the amount the cattle moved around the test arena (total transitions; TT). During backgrounding, FS decreased for all treatments and at the end of backgrounding there was no difference between them. The rate of decline, however, was greatest in the Good group, smallest in the Minimal group with the Poor intermediate. In contrast, ZA was affected by treatment, with a greater reduction for the Good group than the others (P = 0.012). During lot-feeding, treatment did not affect FS, but all groups showed a decrease in ZA, with the greatest change in the Poor group, the least in the Good and the Minimal intermediate (P = 0.052). CA was positively correlated with ZA (r = 0.18 to 0.66) and negatively with TT (r = -0.180 to -0.659). FS was consistently correlated with TT only (r = 0.17 to 0.49). These findings suggest that FS and TT measure a similar characteristic, as do ZA and CA, but that these characteristics are different from one another, indicating that temperament is not a unitary trait, but has different facets. FS and TT measure one facet that we suggest is general agitation, whilst ZA and CA measure fear of people. Thus, the cattle became less agitated during backgrounding, but the effect was not permanently influenced by the quantity and quality of handling/yarding. However, Good handling/yarding reduced fearfulness of people. Fear of people was also reduced during lot-feeding, probably as a consequence of frequent exposure to humans in a situation that was neutral or positive for the cattle.

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This project aims to use simulatiion modelling to improve our understanding of the genetics and physiology of complex traits with a view to increasing the rate of genetic gain in plant breeding programs.

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Developing best practices in Central Queensland to (a) manage difficult to control weeds; (b) improve herbicide efficacy under adverse conditions, and (c) manage weeds in wide-row crop systems.

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Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

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The effectiveness of pre-plant dips of crowns in potassium phosphonate and phosphorous acid was investigated in a systematic manner to develop an effective strategy for the control of root and heart rot diseases caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in the pineapple hybrids 'MD2' and '73-50' and cultivar Smooth Cayenne. Our results clearly indicate that a high volume spray at planting was much less effective when compared to a pre-plant dip. 'Smooth Cayenne' was found to be more resistant to heart rot than 'MD2' and '73-50', and 'Smooth Cayenne' to be more responsive to treatment with potassium phosphonate. Based on cumulative heart rot incidence over time 'MD2' was more susceptible to heart rot than '73-50' and was more responsive to an application of phosphorous acid. The highest levels of phosphonate in roots were reached one month after planting and levels declined during the next two months. Pre-plant dipping of crowns prior to planting is highly effective to control root and heart rot in the first few months but is not sufficient to maintain health of the mother plant root system up until plant crop harvest when weather conditions continue to favour infection.

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There are two key types of selection in a plant breeding program, namely selection of hybrids for potential commercial use and the selection of parents for use in future breeding. Oakey et al. (in Theoretical and Applied Genetics 113, 809-819, 2006) showed how both of these aims could be achieved using pedigree information in a mixed model analysis in order to partition genetic effects into additive and non-additive effects. Their approach was developed for field trial data subject to spatial variation. In this paper we extend the approach for data from trials subject to interplot competition. We show how the approach may be used to obtain predictions of pure stand additive and non-additive effects. We develop the methodology in the context of a single field trial using an example from an Australian sorghum breeding program.

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One major benefit of land application of biosolids is to supply nitrogen (N) for agricultural crops, and understanding mineralisation processes is the key for better N-management strategies. Field studies were conducted to investigate the process of mineralisation of three biosolids products (aerobic, anaerobic, and thermally dried biosolids) incorporated into four different soils at rates of 7-90 wet t/ha in subtropical Queensland. Two of these studies also examined mineralisation rates of commonly used organic amendments (composts, manures, and sugarcane mill muds). Organic N in all biosolids products mineralised very rapidly under ambient conditions in subtropical Queensland, with rates much faster than from other common amendments. Biosolids mineralisation rates ranged from 30 to 80% of applied N during periods ranging from 3.5 to 18 months after biosolids application; these rates were much higher than those suggested in the biosolids land application guidelines established by the NSW EPA (15% for anaerobic and 25% for aerobic biosolids). There was no consistently significant difference in mineralisation rate between aerobic and anaerobic biosolids in our studies. When applied at similar rates of N addition, other organic amendments supplied much less N to the soil mineral N and plant N pools during the crop season. A significant proportion of the applied biosolids total N (up to 60%) was unaccounted for at the end of the observation period. High rates of N addition in calculated Nitrogen Limited Biosolids Application Rates (850-1250 kg N/ha) resulted in excessive accumulation of mineral N in the soil profile, which increases the environmental risks due to leaching, runoff, or gaseous N losses. Moreover, the rapid mineralisation of the biosolids organic N in these subtropical environments suggests that biosolids should be applied at lower rates than in temperate areas, and that care must be taken with the timing to maximise plant uptake and minimise possible leaching, runoff, or denitrification losses of mineralised N.

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* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

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Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

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AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

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Nitrous oxide is the foremost greenhouse gas (GHG)generated by land-applied manures and chemical fertilisers (Australian Government 2013). This research project was part of the National Agricultural Manure Management Program and investigated the potential for sorbers (i.e. specific naturally-occurring minerals) to decrease GHG emissions from spent piggery litter (as well as other manures)applied to soils. The sorbers investigated in this research were vermiculite and bentonite. Both are clays with high cation exchange capacities, of approximately 100–150 cmol/kg Faure 1998). The hypothesis tested in this study was that the sorbers bind ammonium in soil solution thereby suppressing ammonia (NH3)volatilisation and in doing so, slowing the kinetics of nitrate formation and associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. A series of laboratory, glasshouse and field experiments were conducted to assess the sorbers’ effectiveness. The laboratory experiments comprised 64 vessels containing manure and sorber/manure ratios ranging from 1 : 10 to 1 : 1 incorporated into a sandy Sodosol via mixing. The glasshouse trial involved 240 pots comprising manure/sorber incubations placed 5 cm below the soil surface, two soil types (sandy Sodosol and Ferrosol) and two different nitrogen (N) application rates (50 kg N/ha and 150 kg N/ha) with a model plant (kikuyu grass). The field trial consisted of 96, 2 m · 2 m plots on a Ferrosol site with digit grass used as a model plant. Manure/ sorber mixtures were applied in trenches (5 cm below surface) to these plots at increasing sorber levels at anNloading rate of 200 kg/ha. Gas produced in all experiments was plumbed into a purpose-built automated gas analysis (N2O, NH3, CH4, CO2) system. In the laboratory experiments, the sorbers showed strong capacity to decreaseNH3 emissions (up to 80% decrease). Ammonia emissions were close to the detection limit in all treatments in the glasshouse and field trial. In all experiments, considerable N2O decreases (>40%) were achieved by the sorbers. As an example, mean N2O emission decreases from the field trial phase of the project are shown in Fig. 1a. The decrease inGHGemissions brought about by the clays did not negatively impact agronomic performance. Both vermiculite and bentonite resulted in a significant increase in dry matter yields in the field trial (Fig. 1b). Continuing work will optimise the sorber technology for improved environmental and agronomic performance across a range of soils (Vertosol, Dermosol in addition to Ferrosol and Sodosols) and environmental parameters (moisture, temperature, porosity, pH).

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With potential to accumulate substantial amounts of above-ground biomass, at maturity an irrigated cotton crop can have taken up more than 20 kg/ha phosphorus and often more than 200 kg/ha of potassium. Despite the size of plant accumulation of P and K, recovery of applied P and K fertilisers by the crop in our field experiment program has poor. Processing large amounts of mature cotton plant material to provide a representative sample for chemical analysis has not been without its challenges, but the questions regarding mechanism of where, how and when the plant is acquiring immobile nutrients remain. Dry matter measured early in the growing season (squaring, first white flower) have demonstrated a 50% increase in crop biomass to applied P (in particular), but it represents only 20% of the total P accumulation by the plant. By first open boll (and onwards), no response in dry matter or P concentration could be detected to P application. A glasshouse study indicated P recovery was greater (to FOB) where it was completely mixed through a profile as opposed to a banded application method suggesting cotton prefers a more diffuse distribution. The relative effects of root morphology, mycorrhizal fungi infection, seasonal growth patterns and how irrigation is applied are areas for future investigation on how, when and where cotton acquires immobile nutrients.

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Clays could underpin a viable agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technology given their affinity for nitrogen and carbon compounds. We provide the first investigation into the efficacy of clays to decrease agricultural nitrogen GHG emissions (i.e., N2O and NH3). Via laboratory experiments using an automated closed-vessel analysis system, we tested the capacity of two clays (vermiculite and bentonite) to decrease N2O and NH3 emissions and organic carbon losses from livestock manures (beef, pig, poultry, and egg layer) incorporated into an agricultural soil. Clay addition levels varied, with a maximum of 1:1 to manure (dry weight). Cumulative gas emissions were modeled using the biological logistic function, with 15 of 16 treatments successfully fitted (P < 0.05) by this model. When assessing all of the manures together, NH3 emissions were lower (×2) at the highest clay addition level compared with no clay addition, but this difference was not significant (P = 0.17). Nitrous oxide emissions were significantly lower (×3; P < 0.05) at the highest clay addition level compared with no clay addition. When assessing manures individually, we observed generally decreasing trends in NH3 and N2O emissions with increasing clay addition, albeit with widely varying statistical significance between manure types. Most of the treatments also showed strong evidence of increased C retention with increasing clay additions, with up to 10 times more carbon retained in treatments containing clay compared with treatments containing no clay. This preliminary assessment of the efficacy of clays to mitigate agricultural GHG emissions indicates strong promise.