Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

First report of Cotton leafroll dwarf virus in Thailand using a species-specific PCR validated with isolates from Brazil

Partial virus genome sequence with high nucleotide identity to Cotton leafroll dwarf virus (CLRDV) was identified from two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) samples from Thailand displaying typical cotton leaf roll disease symptoms. We developed and validated a PCR assay for the detection of CLRDV isolates from Thailand and Brazil.

Effect of added nitrogen on plant litter decomposition depends on initial soil carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry

Increasing organic carbon inputs to agricultural soils through the use of pastures or crop residues has been suggested as a means of restoring soil organic carbon lost via anthropogenic activities, such as land use change. However, the decomposition and retention of different plant residues in soil, and how these processes are affected by soil properties and nitrogen fertiliser application, is not fully understood. We evaluated the rate and extent of decomposition of 13C-pulse labelled plant material in response to nitrogen addition in four pasture soils of varying physico-chemical characteristics. Microbial respiration of buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) residues was monitored over 365-days. A double exponential model fitted to the data suggested that microbial respiration occurred as an early rapid and a late slow stage. A weighted three-compartment mixing model estimated the decomposition of both soluble and insoluble plant 13C (mg C kg−1 soil). Total plant material decomposition followed the alkyl C: O-alkyl C ratio of plant material, as determined by solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Urea-N addition increased the decomposition of insoluble plant 13C in some soils (≤0.1% total nitrogen) but not others (0.3% total nitrogen). Principal components regression analysis indicated that 26% of the variability of plant material decomposition was explained by soil physico-chemical characteristics (P = 0.001), which was primarily described by the C:N ratio. We conclude that plant species with increasing alkyl C: O-alkyl C ratio are better retained as soil organic matter, and that the C:N stoichiometry of soils determines whether N addition leads to increases in soil organic carbon stocks.

Fungus-feeding Thysanoptera: Phlaeothripinae of the Idiothrips genus-group in Australia, with nine new species

In a group of fungus-feeding Phlaeothripinae characterized by complex body sculpture, identification keys are provided to three genera and 15 species from Australia, including nine new species. In the genus Azaleothrips one new species is described, and one Asian species is newly recorded from Australia. The genus Stictothrips is recorded from Australia for the first time, with two new species. Within the genus Strepterothrips considerable structural diversity is recorded including three new species in which antennal segment III is greatly reduced and bears no sense cones. Some species in this genus exhibit the unusual condition of having several setae on the pelta, the first abdominal tergite. Problems in the production of generic diagnoses within the Phlaeothripinae are discussed.

Otolith morphology of four mackerel species (Scomberomorus spp.) in Australia: Species differentiation and prediction for fisheries monitoring and assessment

Four species of large mackerels (Scomberomorus spp.) co-occur in the waters off northern Australia and are important to fisheries in the region. State fisheries agencies monitor these species for fisheries assessment; however, data inaccuracies may exist due to difficulties with identification of these closely related species, particularly when specimens are incomplete from fish processing. This study examined the efficacy of using otolith morphometrics to differentiate and predict among the four mackerel species off northeastern Australia. Seven otolith measurements and five shape indices were recorded from 555 mackerel specimens. Multivariate modelling including linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and support vector machines, successfully differentiated among the four species based on otolith morphometrics. Cross validation determined a predictive accuracy of at least 96% for both models. An optimum predictive model for the four mackerel species was an LDA model that included fork length, feret length, feret width, perimeter, area, roundness, form factor and rectangularity as explanatory variables. This analysis may improve the accuracy of fisheries monitoring, the estimates based on this monitoring (i.e. mortality rate) and the overall management of mackerel species in Australia.

The upper respiratory tract is a natural reservoir of haemolytic Mannheimia species associated with ovine mastitis

Lamb suckling has been suggested to be an important way of infecting a ewe's udder with different bacteria, including Mannheimia haemolytica. To test the potential role of lambs in transferring Mannheimia species to the ewe’s udder, the restriction endonuclease cleavage patterns of isolates obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs were compared with those obtained from cases of mastitis. Sterile cotton swabs were used to collect nasopharyngeal samples from 50 ewes and 36 lambs from three flocks. M. haemolytica and Mannheimia glucosida as well as haemolytic Mannheimia ruminalis-like organisms were detected in the upper respiratory tract of lambs and ewes. Comparison of the restriction endonuclease cleavage patterns of the isolates suggested that the M. haemolytica isolates obtained from different milk samples from ewes with mastitis were more clonal than those obtained from the nasal swabs. However, some nasal isolates within both Mannheimia species had restriction endonuclease cleavage patterns identical to those obtained from milk samples from ewes with mastitis, indicating that lambs may have a role in transferring these organisms to the udder. More clonality was observed between the M. glucosida isolates than between M. haemolytica isolates.

Non-target species interaction with sodium fluoroacetate (1080) meat bait for controlling feral pigs (Sus scrofa)

Fresh meat baits containing sodium fluoroacetate (1080) are widely used for controlling feral pigs in Queensland, but there is a potential poisoning risk to non-target species. This study investigated the non-target species interactions with meat bait by comparing the time until first approach, investigation, sample and consumption, and whether dying bait green would reduce interactions. A trial assessing species interactions with undyed bait was completed at Culgoa Floodplain National Park, Queensland. Meat baits were monitored for 79 consecutive days with camera traps. Of 40 baits, 100% were approached, 35% investigated (moved) and 25% sampled, and 25% consumed. Monitors approached (P < 0.05) and investigated (P < 0.05) the bait more rapidly than pigs or birds, but the median time until first sampling was not significantly different (P > 0.05), and did not consume any entire bait. A trial was conducted at Whetstone State Forest, southern Queensland, with green-dyed and undyed baits monitored for eight consecutive days with cameras. Of 60 baits, 92% were approached and also investigated by one or more non-target species. Most (85%) were sampled and 57% were consumed, with monitors having slightly more interaction with undyed baits than with green-dyed baits. Mean time until first approach and sample differed significantly between species groups (P = 0.038 and 0.007 respectively) with birds approaching sooner (P < 0.05) and monitors sampling later (P < 0.05) than other (unknown) species (P > 0.05). Undyed bait was sampled earlier (mean 2.19 days) than green-dyed bait (2.7 days) (P = 0.003). Data from the two trials demonstrate that many non-target species regularly visit and sample baits. The use of green-dyed baits may help reduce non-target uptake, but testing is required to determine the effect on attractiveness to feral pigs. Further research is recommended to quantify the benefits of potential strategies to reduce the non-target uptake of meat baits to help improve the availability of bait to feral pigs.

Sirex woodwasp range expansion in Australia: performance and parasitism on two commercial pine species

Sirex woodwasp was detected in Queensland in 2009 and rapidly established in softwood plantations (Pinus radiata and P. taeda) in southern border regions. Biocontrol inoculations of Deladenus siricidicola began soon after, and adults were monitored to assess the success of the programme. Wasp size, sex ratios, emergence phenology and nematode parasitism rates were recorded, along with the assessment of wild-caught females. Patterns varied within and among seasons, but overall, P. taeda appeared to be a less suitable host than P. radiata, producing smaller adults, lower fat body content and fewer females. Sirex emerging from P. taeda also showed lower levels of nematode parasitism, possibly due to interactions with the more abundant blue-stain fungus in this host. Sirex adults generally emerged between November and March, with distinct peaks in January and March, separated by a marked drop in emergence in early February. Temperature provided the best correlate of seasonal emergence, with fortnights with higher mean minimum temperatures having higher numbers of Sirex emerging. This has implications for the anticipated northward spread of Sirex into sub-tropical coastal plantation regions. Following four seasons of inundative release of nematodes in Queensland, parasitism rates remain low and have resulted in only partial sterilization of infected females.

Responses of fruit flies (Tephritidae: Dacinae) to novel male attractants in north Queensland, Australia, and improved lures for some pest species

Male fruit fly attractants, cue-lure and methyl eugenol (ME), have been successfully used for the last 50 years in the monitoring and control of Dacini fruit flies (Bactrocera and Dacus species). However, over 50% of Dacini are non-responsive to either lure, including some pest species. A new lure, zingerone, has been found to weakly attract cue- and ME-responsive species in Malaysia. In Australia it attracted a weakly cue-responsive minor pest Bactrocera jarvisi (Tryon) and three non-responsive' species. Similar compounds were tested in Queensland and attracted cue- and ME-responsive species and two non-responsive' species. In this study, 14 novel compounds, including raspberry ketone formate (RKF) (Melolure) and zingerone, were field tested in comparison with cue-lure and ME at 17 sites in north Queensland. The most attractive novel lures were isoeugenol, methyl-isoeugenol, dihydroeugenol and zingerone. Several non-responsive' species responded to the new lures: Bactrocera halfordiae (Tryon), a species of some market access concern, was most attracted to isoeugenol; B.barringtoniae (Tryon), B.bidentata (May) and B.murrayi (Perkins) responded to isoeugenol, methyl-isoeugenol and dihydroeugenol; two new species of Dacus responded to zingerone. Bactrocera kraussi (Hardy), a cue-responsive minor pest in north Queensland, was significantly more attracted to isoeugenol than cue-lure. The cue-responsive D.absonifacies (May) and D.secamoneaeDrew were significantly more attracted to zingerone than cue-lure. Bactrocera yorkensisDrew & Hancock, a ME-responsive species was significantly more attracted to isoeugenol, methyl-isoeugenol and dihydroeugenol than ME. The preferential response to RKF or cue-lure was species specific. Six species were significantly more attracted to RKF, including the pests B.tryoni (Froggatt), B.frauenfeldi (Schiner) and minor pest B.bryoniae (Tryon); eight species were significantly more attracted to cue-lure including the pest B.neohumeralis (Hardy). These findings have significance in the search for optimal male lures for pest species elsewhere in the world.

Species of Lissothrips and Williamsiella from mosses and lichens in Australia and New Zealand (Thysanoptera, Phlaeothripinae)

Species of Lissothrips and Williamsiella live in association with mosses and lichens. Their gut contents are commonly blue-green, suggesting that they possibly feed on blue-green algae. Three species of Lissothrips are known from New Zealand, of which two are here recorded from Australia together with six new species. Williamsiella is recorded from Australia for the first time, with one new species.

Inventories and significance of the genetic resources of an African mahogany species (Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss.) assembled and further developed in Australia.

The forest tree species Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss. occurs in a belt across 20 African countries from Senegal-Guinea to Sudan-Uganda where it is a highly important resource. However, it is listed as Vulnerable (IUCN 2015-3). Since introduction in northern Australia around 1959, the species has been planted widely, yielding high-value products. The total area of plantations of the species in Australia exceeds 15,000 ha, mostly planted in the Northern Territory since 2006, and includes substantial areas across 60-70 woodlots and industrial plantations established in north-eastern Queensland since the early-1990s and during 2005-2007 respectively. Collaborative conservation and tree improvement by governments began in the Northern Territory and Queensland in 2001 based on provenance and other trials of the 1960s-1970s. This work has developed a broad base of germplasm in clonal seed orchards, hedge gardens and trials (clone and progeny). Several of the trials were established collaboratively on private land. Since the mid-2000s, commercial growers have introduced large numbers of provenance-bulk and individual-tree seedlots to establish industrial plantations and trials, several of the latter in collaboration with the Queensland Government. Provenance bulks (>140) and families (>400) from 17 African countries are established in Australia, considered the largest genetic base of the species in a single country outside Africa. Recently the annual rate of industrial planting of the species in Australia has declined, and R&D has been suspended by governments and reduced by the private sector. However, new commercial plantings in the Northern Territory and Queensland are proposed. In domesticating a species, the strategic importance of a broad genetic base is well known. The wide range of first- and advanced-generation germplasm of the species established in northern Australia and documented in this paper provides a sound basis for further domestication and industrial plantation and woodlot expansion, when investment conditions are favourable

Plants of Central Queensland: Identification and Uses of Native and Introduced Species

Conservation and sustainable productivity are vital issues for Australia. In order to manage vegetation well from an agricultural, recreational or conservation point of view, an understanding of individual plant species is important. Plants of Central Queensland provides a guide for identifying and understanding the plants of the region so that pastoralists and others can be better equipped to manage the vegetation resource of our grazing lands. Central Queensland straddles the Tropic of Capricorn, although many of the plants in the book will also be found outside this area, as shown by their distribution maps. The book provides information on the habit, distribution, foliage and fruits of 525 plant species. Informative notes highlighting declared, poisonous, weed and medicinal plants are included, and plants useful for bees and bush tucker are also noted. These are the most important plants you might see if you live in or travel through central Queensland. This book has an easy-to-read, non-botanical format, with helpful photographs and distribution maps that greatly aid anyone interested in the vegetation of central Queensland. It is based on a previous work of the same title but is greatly expanded, incorporating information on an additional 285 plant species.

The mating system of the true fruit fly Bactrocera tryoniand its sister-species,Bactrocera neohumeralis

The frugivorous ‘true’ fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Queensland fruit fly), is presumed to have a non-resourced-based lek mating system. This is largely untested, and contrary data exists to suggest Bactrocera tryoni may have a resource-based mating system focused on fruiting host plants. We tested the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni, and its close sibling Bactrocera neohumeralis, in large field cages using laboratory reared flies. We used observational experiments that allowed us to determine if: (i) mating pairs were aggregated or non-aggregated; (ii) mating system was resource or non-resource based; (iii) flies utilised possible landmarks (tall trees over short) as mate-rendezvous sites; and (iv) males called females from male-dominated leks. We recorded nearly 250 Bactrocera tryoni mating pairs across all experiments, revealing that: (i) mating pairs were aggregated; (ii) mating nearly always occurred in tall trees over short; (iii) mating was non-resource based; and (iv) that males and females arrived at the mate-rendezvous site together with no evidence that males preceded females. Bactrocera neohumeralis copulations were much more infrequent (only 30 mating pairs in total), but for those pairs there was a similar preference for tall trees and no evidence of a resource-based mating system. Some aspects of Bactrocera tryoni mating behaviour align with theoretical expectations of a lekking system, but others do not. Until evidence for unequivocal female choice can be provided (as predicted under a true lek), the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni is best described as a non-resource based, aggregation system for which we also have evidence that land-marking may be involved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved