Molecular Breeding for Complex Adaptive Traits: How Integrating Crop Ecophysiology and Modelling Can Enhance Efficiency

Progress in crop improvement is limited by the ability to identify favourable combinations of genotypes (G) and management practices (M) in relevant target environments (E) given the resources available to search among the myriad of possible combinations. To underpin yield advance we require prediction of phenotype based on genotype. In plant breeding, traditional phenotypic selection methods have involved measuring phenotypic performance of large segregating populations in multi-environment trials and applying rigorous statistical procedures based on quantitative genetic theory to identify superior individuals. Recent developments in the ability to inexpensively and densely map/sequence genomes have facilitated a shift from the level of the individual (genotype) to the level of the genomic region. Molecular breeding strategies using genome wide prediction and genomic selection approaches have developed rapidly. However, their applicability to complex traits remains constrained by gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, which restrict the predictive power of associations of genomic regions with phenotypic responses. Here it is argued that crop ecophysiology and functional whole plant modelling can provide an effective link between molecular and organism scales and enhance molecular breeding by adding value to genetic prediction approaches. A physiological framework that facilitates dissection and modelling of complex traits can inform phenotyping methods for marker/gene detection and underpin prediction of likely phenotypic consequences of trait and genetic variation in target environments. This approach holds considerable promise for more effectively linking genotype to phenotype for complex adaptive traits. Specific examples focused on drought adaptation are presented to highlight the concepts.

Influence of environmental and instrumental variables on the non-invasive prediction of Brix in pineapple using near infrared spectroscopy

The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.

Phenology of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)in stone fruit orchards as determined by pheromone trapping: Implications for prediction of crop damage

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

NIR model development and robustness in prediction of melon fruit total soluble solids

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

Predicting the response of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to liquid and granular phosphorus fertilisers in Australian soils

Liquid forms of phosphorus (P) have been shown to be more effective than granular P for promoting cereal growth in alkaline soils with high levels of free calcium carbonate on Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. However, the advantage of liquid over granular P forms of fertiliser has not been fully investigated across the wide range of soils used for grain production in Australia. A glasshouse pot experiment tested if liquid P fertilisers were more effective for growing spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) than granular P (monoammonium phosphate) in 28 soils from all over Australia with soil pH (H2O) ranging from 5.2 to 8.9. Application of liquid P resulted in greater shoot biomass, as measured after 4 weeks' growth (mid to late tillering, Feeks growth stage 2-3), than granular P in 3 of the acidic to neutral soils and in 3 alkaline soils. Shoot dry matter responses of spring wheat to applied liquid or granular P were related to soil properties to determine if any of the properties predicted superior yield responses to liquid P. The calcium carbonate content of soil was the only soil property that significantly contributed to predicting when liquid P was more effective than granular P. Five soil P test procedures (Bray, Colwell, resin, isotopically exchangeable P, and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT)) were assessed to determine their ability to measure soil test P on subsamples of soil collected before the experiment started. These soil test values were then related to the dry matter shoot yields to assess their ability to predict wheat yield responses to P applied as liquid or granular P. All 5 soil test procedures provided a reasonable prediction of dry matter responses to applied P as either liquid or granular P, with the resin P test having a slightly greater predictive capacity on the range of soils tested. The findings of this investigation suggest that liquid P fertilisers do have some potential applications in non-calcareous soils and confirm current recommendations for use of liquid P fertiliser to grow cereal crops in highly calcareous soils. Soil P testing procedures require local calibration for response to the P source that is going to be used to amend P deficiency.

Weed management in wide-row cropping systems: a review of current practices and risks for Australian farming systems.

Growing agricultural crops in wide row spacings has been widely adopted to conserve water, to control pests and diseases, and to minimise problems associated with sowing into stubble. The development of herbicide resistance combined with the advent of precision agriculture has resulted in a further reason for wide row spacings to be adopted: weed control. Increased row spacing enables two different methods of weed control to be implemented with non-selective chemical and physical control methods utilised in the wide inter-row zone, with or without selective chemicals used on the on-row only. However, continual application of herbicides and tillage on the inter-row zone brings risks of herbicide resistance, species shifts and/or changes in species dominance, crop damage, increased costs, yield losses, and more expensive weed management technology.

Area-wide management of fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the Central Burnett district of Queensland, Australia.

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt), is the most serious pest of the native tephritid species in Australia and a significant market access impediment for fruit commodities from any area where this species is endemic. An area-wide management (AWM) program was implemented in the Central Burnett district of Queensland with the aim of improving fruit fly control and enhancing market access opportunities for citrus and other fruits produced in the district. The primary control measures adopted in the AWM system included bait spraying of commercial and non-commercial hosts and the year-round installation of male annihilation technology (MAT) carriers in both orchards and town areas. The MAT carrier used consisted of a dental wick impregnated with 1 ml cue-lure [4-(4-acetoxyphenol)-2-butanone] and 1 ml Malathion 500 EC in a plastic cup. The application of these control measures from 2003 to 2007 resulted in overall suppression of fruit fly populations across the entire district. Male trap catches at the peak activity time were reduced by 95% and overall fruit fly infestation in untreated backyard fruit of town areas reduced from 60.8% to 21.8%. Our results demonstrate remarkable improvement in fruit fly control and economic benefit to the Central Burnett horticulture. Therefore, commercial growers are continuing the AWM program as a long-term, industry funded activity, to provide an additional layer of phytosanitary security for market access of fruit commodities from this district.

A genome-wide association study of tick burden and milk composition in cattle.

To study the genetic basis of tick burden and milk production and their interrelationship, we collected a sample of 1961 cattle with multiple tick counts from northern Australia of which 973 had dairy production data in the Australian Dairy Herd Information Service database. We calculated heritabilities, genetic and phenotypic correlations for these traits and showed a negative relationship between tick counts and milk and milk component yield. Tests of polymorphisms of four genes associated with milk yield, ABCG2, DGAT1, GHR and PRLR, showed no statistically significant effect on tick burden but highly significant associations to milk component yield in these data and we confirmed separate effects for GHR and PRLR on bovine chromosome 20. To begin to identify some of the molecular genetic bases for these traits, we genotyped a sample of 189 of these cattle for 7397 single nucleotide polymorphisms in a genome-wide association study. Although the allele effects for adjusted milk fat and protein yield were highly correlated (r = 0.66), the correlations of allele effects of these milk component yields and tick burden were small (|r| <= 0.10). These results agree in general with the phenotypic correlations between tick counts and milk component yield and suggest that selection on markers for tick burden or milk component yield may have no undesirable effect on the other trait.

Non-destructive prediction of 'Hass' avocado dry matter via FT-NIR spectroscopy.

BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.

Area Wide Integrated Pest Management for Bundaberg regional production horticulture

Regional implementation of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) in Bundaberg production horticulture providing a unified approach to pest and disease control on an area-wide basis. This is aimed at reducing chemical dependency, increasing sustainability, profitability and enhancing biodiversity through detailed investigations, technology application, coordination, monitoring, communication and education.

Simultaneous prediction of acidity parameters (pH and titratable acidity) in Kefir using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy.

Acidity in terms of pH and titratable acids influences the texture and flavour of fermented dairy products, such as Kefir. However, the methods for determining pH and titratable acidity (TA) are time consuming. Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a non-destructive method, which simultaneously predicts multiple traits from a single scan and can be used to predict pH and TA. The best pH NIR calibration model was obtained with no spectral pre-treatment applied, whereas smoothing was found to be the best pre-treatment to develop the TA calibration model. Using cross-validation, the prediction results were found acceptable for both pH and TA. With external validation, similar results were found for pH and TA, and both models were found to be acceptable for screening purposes.

Rotary veneering of plantation-grown spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata) and Dunn's white gum (Eucalyptus dunnii)

This report evaluates the wood and veneer properties of plantation-grown spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata, or CCV) and Dunn's white gum (Eucalyptus dunnii), grown at different stockings, in thinning trials near Ellangowan in north-east New South Wales (mean annual rainfall 1050 mm) and Kingaroy in south-east Queensland (mean annual rainfall 873 mm). Thinning trials were established at age seven years. Both species showed a significant increase in stem diameter growth of the dominant trees in response to thinning. At age 10 years, trees from the unthinned (950–1270 stems ha-1) and 300 stems ha-1 treatments were selected for veneering. Five dominant trees were felled from each combination of species x sites x thinning treatment. Diameter at breast height over bark of the selected trees ranged from 20 cm to 27 cm at Ellangowan, and 19 cm to 26 cm at Kingaroy. From each tree, 1.5 m long billets were removed at two positions: a butt billet from 0.3–1.8 m above ground and a top billet from approximately 5.5–7.0 m. Log end splitting was assessed 24 hours after harvesting and again after steaming, approximately four days after harvesting. Disks from just above both billets were collected for assessment of wood properties. Billets were peeled on a spindleless veneer lathe to produce a full veneer ribbon with a target green thickness of 2.8 to 3.0 mm. The 1.55 m wide (tangential dimension) veneer sheets were dried and graded according to AS/NZ Standard 2269:2008, which describes four veneer grades. Veneer samples taken along the length of the veneer ribbon, at regular intervals of 1.55 m, were tested for stiffness, shrinkage and density. Veneer length measurements were used to calculate the radial distance of each sample from the central axis of the billet. Overall veneer gross recoveries ranged from 50% to 70%. They were significantly lower at the Kingaroy site, for both species. The veneer recoveries achieved were 2–3 times higher than typical green off saw recoveries from small plantation hardwood logs of similar diameter. Most of the veneer recovered was classified as D-grade. CCV trees from the Ellangowan site yielded up to 38% of the better C-grade and higher grade veneers. The main limiting factors that prevented veneer from meeting higher grades were the presence of kino defects and encased knots. Splits in E. dunnii veneer also contributed to reduced grade quality. Log end splits were higher for E. dunnii than for CCV, and logs from Ellangowan exhibited more severe splitting. Split index was generally higher for top than for butt billets. Split index was strongly correlated with the average veneer grade from corresponding billets. The Ellangowan site, where rainfall was higher and trees grew faster, yielded significantly denser and stiffer veneers than did the drier sites near Kingaroy, where tree growth was slower. The difference was more pronounced for E. dunnii than for CCV. Differences in measured wood properties between thinned and unthinned treatments were generally small and not significant. On average, 10% of billet volume was lost during the peeling rounding-up process. Much of the wood laid down following thinning was removed during rounding-up, meaning the effect of thinning on veneer properties could not be effectively assessed. CCV was confirmed as having high veneer density and very good veneer stiffness, exceeding 15 GPa, making it very suitable for structural products. E. dunnii also demonstrated good potential as a useful structural plywood resource, achieving stiffness above 10 GPa. Veneer stiffness and density in CCV increased from pith to bark at both sites, while for E. dunnii there was a radial increase in these properties at the Ellangowan site only. At the drier Kingaroy site, veneer stiffness and density declined from mid-radius to the log periphery. This may be associated with prolonged drought from 2005 to 2009, corresponding to the later years of tree growth at the Kingaroy site. CCV appeared to be less sensitive to drought conditions. Standing tree acoustic velocity, determined by the Fakopp time-of-flight method, provided a reliable prediction of average veneer stiffness for both species (R2=0.78 for CCV and R2=0.90 for E. dunnii) suggesting that the Fakopp method may be a useful indicator of tree and stand quality, in terms of veneer stiffness in standing trees.

Liveweight prediction from hip height, condition score, fetal age and breed in tropical female cattle

Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.

Effects of seasonal variability on FT-NIR prediction of dry matter content for whole Hass avocado fruit

Fourier Transform (FT)-near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated as a non-invasive technique for estimating percentage (%) dry matter of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares (PLS) calibration models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict % dry matter, taking into account effects of seasonal variation. It is found that seasonal variability has a significant effect on model predictive performance for dry matter in avocados. The robustness of the calibration model, which in general limits the application for the technique, was found to increase across years (seasons) when more seasonal variability was included in the calibration set. The R-v(2) and RMSEP for the single season prediction models predicting on an independent season ranged from 0.09 to 0.61 and 2.63 to 5.00, respectively, while for the two season models predicting on the third independent season, they ranged from 0.34 to 0.79 and 2.18 to 2.50, respectively. The bias for single season models predicting an independent season was as high as 4.429 but <= 1.417 for the two season combined models. The calibration model encompassing fruit from three consecutive years yielded predictive statistics of R-v(2) = 0.89, RMSEP = 1.43% dry matter with a bias of -0.021 in the range 16.1-39.7% dry matter for the validation population encompassing independent fruit from the three consecutive years. Relevant spectral information for all calibration models was obtained primarily from oil, carbohydrate and water absorbance bands clustered in the 890-980, 1005-1050, 1330-1380 and 1700-1790 nm regions. These results indicate the potential of FT-NIRS, in diffuse reflectance mode, to non-invasively predict the % dry matter of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit and the importance of the development of a calibration model that incorporates seasonal variation. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of breeding values for average fruit weight in mango using a multivariate individual mixed model

Mango is an important horticultural fruit crop and breeding is a key strategy to improve ongoing sustainability. Knowledge of breeding values of potential parents is important for maximising progress from breeding. This study successfully employed a mixed linear model methods incorporating a pedigree to predict breeding values for average fruit weight from highly unbalanced data for genotypes planted over three field trials and assessed over several harvest seasons. Average fruit weight was found to be under strong additive genetic control. There was high correlation between hybrids propagated as seedlings and hybrids propagated as scions grafted onto rootstocks. Estimates of additive genetic correlation among trials ranged from 0.69 to 0.88 with correlations among harvest seasons within trials greater than 0.96. These results suggest that progress from selection for broad adaptation can be achieved, particularly as no repeatable environmental factor that could be used to predict G x E could be identified. Predicted breeding values for 35 known cultivars are presented for use in ongoing breeding programs.