45 resultados para Size-Ramsey numbers


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Abstract of Macbeth, G. M., Broderick, D., Buckworth, R. & Ovenden, J. R. (In press, Feb 2013). Linkage disequilibrium estimation of effective population size with immigrants from divergent populations: a case study on Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). G3: Genes, Genomes and Genetics. Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. But, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large, as estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes around 5000. This was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest standard deviation of Ne estimates occurred when low frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or non-breeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were above 24,000.

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NeEstimator v2 is a completely revised and updated implementation of software that produces estimates of contemporary effective population size, using several different methods and a single input file. NeEstimator v2 includes three single-sample estimators (updated versions of the linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote-excess methods, and a new method based on molecular coancestry), as well as the two-sample (moment-based temporal) method. New features include the following: (i) an improved method for accounting for missing data; (ii) options for screening out rare alleles; (iii) confidence intervals for all methods; (iv) the ability to analyse data sets with large numbers of genetic markers (10000 or more); (v) options for batch processing large numbers of different data sets, which will facilitate cross-method comparisons using simulated data; and (vi) correction for temporal estimates when individuals sampled are not removed from the population (Plan I sampling). The user is given considerable control over input data and composition, and format of output files. The freely available software has a new JAVA interface and runs under MacOS, Linux and Windows.

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Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.

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Petrifilm(R) (6410) was used directly on lamb carcasses to enumerate coliforms. 10 sites on 30 carcasses were sampled at each of 4 separate meat processing establishments (works). Coliform counts obtained by this technique were statistically analysed using analysis of variance (ANOVA) to select the optimum sampling sites on the carcass and to assess contamination of the carcass by gut flora at a particular establishment. There was a large variation between sites and between works. In general, works 3 and 4 produced cleaner carcasses than works 2, which in turn was cleaner than works 1. Works 1, 2 and 4 used conventional dressing techniques and works 3 used the inverted dressing method, therefore, the coliform counts found at works 3 and 4 are achievable regardless of dressing technique. Coliform bacteria were most concentrated around the posterior pelvic rim and less prevalent at the carcass extremities. The posterior pelvic rim (sites 3 and 4) had higher (P < 0.05) coliform counts than the exterior ventral flank area (sites 5, 6, 7 and 8), which in turn had higher (P < 0.05) counts than the proximal hind and proximal fore limbs (sites 1, 2, 9 and 10) across all works. With in-line routine testing it is recommended that the majority of carcasses sampled should give coliform counts of <50 cfu/20 cm2 for sites 4 and 8. Reprinted with permission from Journal of Food Protection. Copyright held by the International Association of Food Protection, Des Moines, Iowa, USA. Authors affifiation. J.A.Guthrie & K.J.Dunlop International Food Institute of Queensland, Department of Primary Industries, Rockhampton and G.A.Saunders Veterinary Public Health Division, Livestock and Meat Authority of Queensland, Emerald.

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The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) populations were measured in a subset of treatments contained within an extensive grazing study conducted between 1990 and 1996 in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland. This subset included 2 landscape positions and 3 stocking rates in both native pasture and legume-oversown native pasture. Severe drought conditions throughout much of the study necessitated ongoing adjustments to the original stocking rates and, as a result, drought was the major influence on the dynamics of H. contortus populations. Plant density and basal area in the silver-leaved ironbark landscape were consistently higher than those in the narrow-leaved ironbark landscape. There was limited evidence of any impact by either light or moderate stocking rate but there was evidence of an impact at the heaviest stocking rate. There was minimal impact of legume oversowing. Relatively large fluctuations in plant density occurred during this study resulting from the death of existing plants, due mainly to drought, and seedling recruitment. Similarly, there were relatively large fluctuations in basal area caused mainly by changes in plant size. Rates for turnover of plant numbers were relatively high whereas plant turnover rates of basal areas were relatively low. Regular seedling recruitment appeared necessary to ensure the persistence of this species. Despite the high turnover, populations were maintained at reasonable levels indicating the overall resilience of H. contortus.

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The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

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The size of the soil microbial biomass carbon (SMBC) has been proposed as a sensitive indicator for measuring the adverse effects of contaminants on the soil microbial community. In this study of Australian agricultural systems, we demonstrated that field variability of SMBC measured using the fumigation-extraction procedure limited its use as a robust ecotoxicological endpoint. The SMBC varied up to 4-fold across control samples collected from a single field site, due to small-scale spatial heterogeneity in the soil physicochemical environment. Power analysis revealed that large numbers of replicates (3-93) were required to identify 20% or 50% decreases in the size of the SMBC of contaminated soil samples relative to their uncontaminated control samples at the 0.05% level of statistical significance. We question the value of the routine measurement of SMBC as an ecotoxicological endpoint at the field scale, and suggest more robust and predictive microbiological indicators.

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In this study, 120–144 commercial varieties and breeding lines were assessed for grain size attributes including plump grain (>2.8 mm) and retention (>2.5 mm+>2.8 mm). Grain samples were produced from replicated trials at 25 sites across four years. Climatic conditions varied between years as well as between sites. Several of the trial sites were irrigated while the remaining were produced under dryland conditions. A number of the dryland sites suffered severe drought stress. The grain size data was analysed for genetic (G), environmental (E) and genotype by environment (G×E) interactions. All analyses included maturity as a covariate. The genetic effect on grain size was greater than environmental or maturity effects despite some sites suffering terminal moisture stress. The model was used to calculate heritability values for each site used in the study. These values ranged from 89 to 98% for plump grain and 88 to 96% for retention. The results demonstrated that removing the sources of non-heritable variation, such as maturity and field effects, can improve genetic estimates of the retention and plump grain fractions. By partitioning all variance components, and thereby having more robust estimates of genetic differences, plant breeders can have greater confidence in selecting barley genotypes which maintain large, stable grain size across a range of environments.

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Although migration patterns for various life history stages of the chokka squid (Loligo reynaudii) have been previously presented, there has been limited comparison of spatial variation in biological parameters. Based on data from research surveys; size ranges of juveniles, subadults and adults on the Agulhas Bank were estimated and presented spatially. The bulk of the results appear to largely support the current acceptance of the life cycle with an annual pattern of squid hatching in the east, migrating westwards to offshore feeding grounds on the Central and Western Agulhas Bank and the west coast and subsequent return migration to the eastern inshore areas to spawn. The number of adult animals in deeper water, particularly in autumn in the central study area probably represents squid spawning in deeper waters and over a greater area than is currently targeted by the fishery. The distribution of life history stages and different feeding areas does not rule out the possibility that discrete populations of L. reynaudii with different biological characteristics inhabit the western and eastern regions of the Agulhas Bank. In this hypothesis, some mixing of the populations does occur but generally squid from the western Agulhas Bank may occur in smaller numbers, grow more slowly and mature at a larger size. Spawning occurs on the western portion of the Agulhas Bank, and juveniles grow and mature on the west coast and the central Agulhas Bank. Future research requirements include the elucidation of the age structure of chokka squid both spatially and temporally, and a comparison of the statolith chemistry and genetic characterisation between adults from different spawning areas across the Agulhas Bank.

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This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

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The sciaenid Protonibea diacanthus is a large, long-lived predatory fish of inshore northern Australian waters, which forms annual aggregations that are fished extensively by traditional (subsistence) and recreational fishers. There are now widespread concerns that the resource is being overexploited. Indigenous fishers of the Cape York Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) relate that large adult fish (up to 1500 mm total length (TL)) made up the bulk of the catch from the sciaenid aggregations until about 1994. In contrast, sexually mature P. diacanthus comprised only a small component (12 fish out of 270=4.4%) examined in a 1999–2000 sampling programme that was biased towards the largest individuals available. At 790 mm TL, the minimum size at first maturity for female P. diacanthus in this study is much smaller than the 920 mm TL reported previously in Queensland waters. Developing ovaries were observed in specimens sampled from sciaenid aggregations which formed in NPA waters between May and September 2000. However, no fish with ripe or spent gonads were found in the study, so the current timing and location of the spawning season for P. diacanthus in the region remain unknown. Food items observed in the analysis of the diet of P. diacanthus from the NPA included a variety of teleosts and invertebrates. The range of animal taxa represented in the prey items support the description of an ‘opportunistic predator’ attributed to the species. In our sampling, the stomach contents of fish caught during the time of the aggregation events did not differ from those observed at other times of the year. A total of 114 P. diacanthus were tagged and released at aggregation sites during the study period, and 3 fish (2.6%) were subsequently recaptured. The low rate of tag returns from the wild stock tagging programme, both in this study (2.6%) and from recreational fisher tag/release programmes for the sciaenid elsewhere in Queensland (6.5%), were not explained by tag loss nor mortality, given the high retention rate of tags and the zero mortality seen in tank trials. In response to the biological findings from this study, indigenous community councils of the NPA imposed a 2-year fishing moratorium for P. diacanthus. Surveys at aggregation sites in 2002 and 2003 established that much larger fish (mean size 103.5 cm TL) were again present on the grounds, albeit in very low numbers. These recent preliminary results highlight the critical need for continued monitoring and management of the P. diacanthus fishery in the NPA, if prospects for resource recovery are to be realised. The NPA initiative has provided a rare opportunity to negotiate a co-management strategy, based on scientific data and traditional knowledge, for the recovery of a cultural and economically significant fished resource.

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The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

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Our evaluation of the predation of calves by wild dogs in the 1990s found that the number of calves killed and frequency of years that calf losses occurred, is higher in baited areas compared to adjoining, non-baited areas of similar size. Calf losses were highest with poor seasonal conditions, low prey numbers and where baited areas were re-colonised by wild dogs soon after baiting. We monitored wild dog “activity” before and after 35 baiting programs in southwest, central west and far north Queensland between 1994 and 2006 and found change in activity depends on the timing of the baiting. Baiting programs conducted between October and April show an increase in dog activity post-baiting (average increase of 219.1%, SEM 100.9, n=9, for programs conducted in October and November; an increase of 82.5%, SEM 54.5, n=7 for programs conducted in March and April; and a decrease in activity of 46.5%, SEM 10.2, n=19 for programs conducted between May and September). We monitored the seasonal activity and dispersal of wild dogs fitted with satellite transmitters 2006 to present. We have found that: • Activity of breeding males and females, whilst rearing and nurturing pups, is focussed around the den between July to September and away from areas of human activity. Activity of breeding groups appears to avoid locations of human activity until juveniles become independent (around late November). • While independent and solitary yearlings often have unstable, elliptically-shaped territories in less favourable areas, members of breeding groups have territories that appear seasonally stable and circular located in more favourable habitats. • Extra-territorial forays of solitary yearlings can be huge, in excess of 200 km. The largest forays we have monitored have occurred when the activity of pack members is focussed around rearing pups and juveniles (August to November). • Where wild dogs have dispersed or had significant territorial expansion, it has occurred within days of baiting programs and onto recently baited properties. • The wild dogs we have tracked have followed netting barrier fences for hundreds of kilometres and lived adjacent to or bypassed numerous grids in the barrier. Based on these studies, we conclude that a proportion of the perceived decline in dog activity between May and September, post baiting, is due to a decline in dog activity in areas associated with human activity. The increase in dog activity post-baiting between October and May (and increased calf predation on baited properties) is likely caused by wild dogs dispersing (juveniles and yearlings) or expanding (adults) their territory into baited, now ‘vacant’, areas. We hypothesise that baiting programs should be focussed in summer and autumn commencing late November as soon as juveniles become independent of adults. We also hypothesise that instead of large, annual or semi-annual baiting programs, laying the same number of baits over 4-6 weeks may be more effective. These hypotheses need to be tested through an adaptive management project.

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The response of soybean (Glycine max) and dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) to feeding by Helicoverpa armigera during the pod-fill stage was studied in irrigated field cages over three seasons to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. H. armigera intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the dry bean experiment, yield loss occurred at a rate 6.00 ± 1.29 g/HIE while the rates of loss in the three soybean experiments were 4.39 ± 0.96 g/HIE, 3.70 ± 1.21 g/HIE and 2.12 ± 0.71 g/HIE. These three slopes were not statistically different (P > 0.05) and the pooled estimate of the rate of yield loss was 3.21 ± 0.55 g/HIE. The first soybean experiment also showed a split-line form of damage curve with a rate of yield loss of 26.27 ± 2.92 g/HIE beyond 8.0 HIE and a rapid decline to zero yield. In dry bean, H. armigera feeding reduced total and undamaged pod numbers by 4.10 ± 1.18 pods/HIE and 12.88 ± 1.57 pods/HIE respectively, while undamaged seed numbers were reduced by 35.64 ± 7.25 seeds/HIE. In soybean, total pod numbers were not affected by H. armigera infestation (out to 8.23 HIE in Experiment 1) but seed numbers (in Experiments 1 and 2) and the number of seeds/pod (in all experiments) were adversely affected. Seed size increased with increases in H. armigera density in two of the three soybean experiments, indicating plant compensatory responses to H. armigera feeding. Analysis of canopy pod profiles indicated that loss of pods occurred from the top of the plant downwards, but with an increase in pod numbers close to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Based on these results, the economic injury levels for H. armigera on dry bean and soybean are approximately 0.74 HIE and 2.31 HIE/m2, respectively (0.67 and 2.1 HIE/row-m for 91 cm rows).

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The response of vegetative soybean (Glycine max) to Helicoverpa armigera feeding was studied in irrigated field cages over three years in eastern Australia to determine the relationship between larval density and yield loss, and to develop economic injury levels. Rather than using artificial defoliation techniques, plants were infested with either eggs or larvae of H. armigera, and larvae allowed to feed until death or pupation. Larvae were counted and sized regularly and infestation intensity was calculated in Helicoverpa injury equivalent (HIE) units, where 1 HIE was the consumption of one larva from the start of the infestation period to pupation. In the two experiments where yield loss occurred, the upper threshold for zero yield loss was 7.51 ± 0.21 HIEs and 6.43 ± 1.08 HIEs respectively. In the third experiment, infestation intensity was lower and no loss of seed yield was detected up to 7.0 HIEs. The rate of yield loss/HIE beyond the zero yield loss threshold varied between Experiments 1 and 2 (-9.44 ± 0.80 g and -23.17 ± 3.18 g, respectively). H. armigera infestation also affected plant height and various yield components (including pod and seed numbers and seeds/pod) but did not affect seed size in any experiment. Leaf area loss of plants averaged 841 and 1025 cm2/larva in the two experiments compared to 214 and 302 cm2/larva for cohort larvae feeding on detached leaves at the same time, making clear that artificial defoliation techniques are unsuitable for determining H. armigera economic injury levels on vegetative soybean. Analysis of canopy leaf area and pod profiles indicated that leaf and pod loss occurred from the top of the plant downwards. However, there was an increase in pod numbers closer to the ground at higher pest densities as the plant attempted to compensate for damage. Defoliation at the damage threshold was 18.6 and 28.0% in Experiments 1 and 2, indicating that yield loss from H. armigera feeding occurred at much lower levels of defoliation than previously indicated by artificial defoliation studies. Based on these results, the economic injury level for H. armigera on vegetative soybean is approximately 7.3 HIEs/row-metre in 91 cm rows or 8.0 HIEs/m2.