Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S. madagascariensis).

The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Top-predator control-induced trophic cascades: an alternative hypothesis to the conclusion of Colman et al.

Recently argued that observed positive relationships between dingoes and small mammals were a result of top-down processes whereby lethal dingo control reduced dingoes and increased mesopredators and herbivores, which then suppressed small mammals. Here, I show that the prerequisite negative effects of dingo control on dingoes were not shown, and that the same positive relationships observed may simply represent well-known bottom-up processes whereby more generalist predators are found in places with more of their preferred prey. Identification of top-predator controlinduced trophic cascades first requires demonstration of some actual effect of control on predators, typically possible only through manipulative experiments with the ability to identify cause and effect.

Nocturnal Perching of Scarabaeine Dung Beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in an Australian Tropical Rain Forest

Wongabel, a northeastern Queensland tropical, wet, evergreen forest, contains 22 species of Scarabaeinae dung beetles. Five of these species were observed to perch commonly on leaves at night. Length of the beetle and the height of its perch were recorded for each of 56 1 specimens. Unlike the New World tropical dung beetle perchers, no clear evidence was found that small species perched closer to the ground than larger species. The evidence gathered, at least for the four most common perchers, supports the hypothesis that perching is one type of foraging strategy. The similarities and differences between the Australian and New World perchers are discussed.

Recruitment and loss of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on contaminant plants in chickpea crops

The hypothesis that contaminant plants growing amongst chickpea serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting oviposition pressure away from the main crop was tested under field conditions. Gain (recruitment) and loss (presumed mortality) of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. on contaminant faba bean and wheat plants growing in chickpea plots were quantified on a daily basis over a 12-d period. The possibility of posteclosion movement of larvae from the contaminants to the surrounding chickpea crop was examined. Estimated total loss of the census population varied from 80 to 84% across plots and rows. The loss of brown eggs (40–47%) contributed most to the overall loss estimate, followed by loss of white eggs (27–35%) and larvae (6–9%). The cumulative number of individuals entering the white and brown egg and larval stages over the census period ranged from 15 to 58, 10–48 and 1–6 per m row, respectively. The corresponding estimates of mean stage-specific loss, expressed as a percentage of individuals entering the stage, ranged from 52 to 57% for white eggs, 87–108% for brown eggs and 71–87% for first-instar larvae. Mean larval density on chickpea plants in close proximity to the contaminant plants did not exceed the baseline larval density on chickpea further away from the contaminants across rows and plots. The results support the hypothesis that contaminant plants in chickpea plots serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting egg pressure from the main crop and elevating mortality of juvenile stages. Deliberate contamination of chickpea crops with other plant species merits further investigation as a cultural pest management strategy for Helicoverpa spp.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Seasonal resource availability and use by an endangered tropical mycophagous marsupial

This study highlights the importance of considering how seasonality of rainfall affects availability of resources and consequently species distributions within tropical ecosystems. The endangered northern bettong, Bettongia tropica Wakefield is thought to be restricted to habitats where seasonal availability of hypogeous fungi, their principal food resource, remains high. To test this hypothesis fungal abundance was quantified in the early wet, late wet, early dry and late dry seasons within known bettong habitat. A relationship was found between precipitation and fungal availability, with the abundance of hypogeous fungi being significantly lower in the late dry season. Fungal availability correlated strongly with the seasonal rainfall pattern determined from 74-year monthly means. This contrasts with a previous study where mycophagy, measured by faecal analysis, remained high across seasons presumably because of aseasonal rainfall during that study period. Alloteropsis semialata R.Br. (cockatoo grass) use by bettongs increased significantly during the period of low fungal availability. This suggests that the importance of cockatoo grass as an alternative food resource during annual and extended dry periods has previously been underestimated. With the frequency and intensity of drought expected to increase with global climate change, these findings have significant implications for bettong management. The important and possibly equivalent dependence of B. tropica on both hypogeous fungi and A. semialata helps to explain their habitat preference and identifies this species as a true ecotonal specialist.

Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: An integrated modelling approach in maize.

Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.

Spatial patterns in the biology of the chokka squid, Loligo reynaudii on the Agulhas Bank, South Africa

Although migration patterns for various life history stages of the chokka squid (Loligo reynaudii) have been previously presented, there has been limited comparison of spatial variation in biological parameters. Based on data from research surveys; size ranges of juveniles, subadults and adults on the Agulhas Bank were estimated and presented spatially. The bulk of the results appear to largely support the current acceptance of the life cycle with an annual pattern of squid hatching in the east, migrating westwards to offshore feeding grounds on the Central and Western Agulhas Bank and the west coast and subsequent return migration to the eastern inshore areas to spawn. The number of adult animals in deeper water, particularly in autumn in the central study area probably represents squid spawning in deeper waters and over a greater area than is currently targeted by the fishery. The distribution of life history stages and different feeding areas does not rule out the possibility that discrete populations of L. reynaudii with different biological characteristics inhabit the western and eastern regions of the Agulhas Bank. In this hypothesis, some mixing of the populations does occur but generally squid from the western Agulhas Bank may occur in smaller numbers, grow more slowly and mature at a larger size. Spawning occurs on the western portion of the Agulhas Bank, and juveniles grow and mature on the west coast and the central Agulhas Bank. Future research requirements include the elucidation of the age structure of chokka squid both spatially and temporally, and a comparison of the statolith chemistry and genetic characterisation between adults from different spawning areas across the Agulhas Bank.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): Exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Φ = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Variable growth rates of the tropical estuarine fish barramundi Lates calcarifer (Bloch) under different freshwater flow conditions

Relationships between freshwater flows and growth rates of the opportunistic predatory finfish barramundi Lates calcarifer in a dry tropical estuary were examined using data from a long-term tag-recapture programme. Lagged effects were not investigated. After accounting for length at release, time at liberty and seasonal variation (e.g. winter, spring, summer and autumn), growth rates were significantly and positively related to fresh water flowing to the estuary. Effects were present at relatively low levels of freshwater flow (i.e. 2.15 m3 s-1, the 5th percentile of the mean flow rate experienced by fish in the study during time at liberty). The analysis, although correlative, provides quantitative evidence to support the hypothesis that freshwater flows are important in driving the productivity of estuaries and can improve growth of species high in the trophic chain.

Diet quality and liveweight gain of steers grazing Leucaena-grass pasture estimated with faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (F.NIRS)

Three drafts of Bos indicus cross steers (initially 178-216 kg) grazed Leucaena-grass pasture [Leucaena leucocephala subspecies glabrata cv. Cunningham with green panic (Panicum maximum cv. trichoglume)] from late winter through to autumn during three consecutive years in the Burnett region of south-east Queensland. Measured daily weight gain (DWGActual) of the steers was generally 0.7-1.1 kg/day during the summer months. Estimated intakes of metabolisable energy and dry matter (DM) were calculated from feeding standards as the intakes required by the steers to grow at the DWGActual. Diet attributes were predicted from near infrared reflectance spectroscopy spectra of faeces (F.NIRS) using established calibration equations appropriate for northern Australian forages. Inclusion of some additional reference samples from cattle consuming Leucaena diets into F.NIRS calibrations based on grass and herbaceous legume-grass pastures improved prediction of the proportion of Leucaena in the diet. Mahalanobis distance values supported the hypothesis that the F.NIRS predictions of diet crude protein concentration and DM digestibility (DMD) were acceptable. F.NIRS indicated that the percentage of Leucaena in the diet varied widely (10-99%). Diet crude protein concentration and DMD were usually high, averaging 12.4 and 62%, respectively, and were related asymptotically to the percentage of Leucaena in the diet (R2 = 0.48 and 0.33, respectively). F.NIRS calibrations for DWG were not satisfactory to predict this variable from an individual faecal sample since the s.e. of prediction were 0.33-0.40 kg/day. Cumulative steer liveweight (LW) predicted from F.NIRS DWG calibrations, which had been previously developed with tropical grass and grass-herbaceous legume pastures, greatly overestimated the measured steer LW; therefore, these calibrations were not useful. Cumulative steer LW predicted from a modified F.NIRS DWG calibration, which included data from the present study, was strongly correlated (R2 = 0.95) with steer LW but overestimated LW by 19-31 kg after 8 months. Additional reference data are needed to develop robust F.NIRS calibrations to encompass the diversity of Leucaena pastures of northern Australia. In conclusion, the experiment demonstrated that F.NIRS could improve understanding of diet quality and nutrient intake of cattle grazing Leucaena-grass pasture, and the relationships between nutrient supply and cattle growth.

Microbial ecology of the equine hindgut during oligofructose-induced laminitis

Alimentary carbohydrate overload is a significant cause of laminitis in horses and is correlated with drastic shifts in the composition of hindgut microbiota. Equine hindgut streptococcal species (EHSS), predominantly Streptococcus lutetiensis, have been shown to be the most common microorganisms culturable from the equine caecum prior to the onset of laminitis. However, the inherent biases of culture-based methods are estimated to preclude up to 70% of the normal caecal microbiota. The objective of this study was to evaluate bacterial population shifts occurring in the equine caecum throughout the course of oligofructose-induced laminitis using several culture-independent techniques and to correlate these with caecal lactate, volatile fatty acid and degrees of polymerization 3-7 fructo-oligosaccharide concentrations. Our data conclusively show that of the total microbiota present in the equine hindgut, the EHSS S. lutetiensis is the predominant microorganism that proliferates prior to the onset of laminitis, utilizing oligofructose to produce large quantities of lactate. Population shifts in lactobacilli and Escherichia coli subpopulations occur secondarily to the EHSS population shifts, thus confirming that lactobacilli and coliforms have no role in laminitis. A large, curved, Gram-negative rod previously observed during the early phases of laminitis induction was most closely related to the Anaerovibrio genus and most likely represents a new, yet to be cultured, genus and species. Correlation of fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR results provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that laminitis is associated with the death en masse and rapid cell lysis of EHSS. If EHSS are lysed, liberated cellular components may initiate laminitis.

Long-term assessment of efficacy of permeable pond covers for odour reduction

Three anaerobic ponds used to store and treat piggery wastes were fully covered with permeable materials manufactured from polypropylene geofabric, polyethylene shade cloth and supported straw. The covers were assessed in terms of efficacy in reducing odour emission rates over a 40-month period. Odour samples were collected from the surface of the covers, the surface of the exposed liquor and from the surface of an uncovered (control) pond at one of the piggeries. Relative to the emission rate of the exposed liquor at each pond, the polypropylene, shade cloth and straw covers reduced average emission rates by 76%, 69% and 66%, respectively. At the piggery with an uncovered control pond, the polypropylene covers reduced average odour emission rates by 50% and 41%, respectively. A plausible hypothesis, consistent with likely mechanisms for the odour reduction and the olfactometric method used to quantifying the efficacy of the covers, is offered.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Patterns in the distribution and abundance of female eastern king prawns, Melicertus plebejus (Hess, 1865), capable of spawning and reproductive potential in waters off

Linear mixed models were used to test the null hypothesis that there were no differences between seasons and locations in the reproductive potential of female eastern king prawns, Melicertus plebejus along the east coast of Australia. Three samples were collected in each season between autumn 1991 and winter 1992 (inclusive). Females capable of spawning were found at all locations but proportions were greater in lower than higher latitudes. Females capable of spawning were not found at the southern (highest latitude) most location in all seasons. There was a significant interaction in reproductive potential between seasons and locations suggesting that patterns among seasons differed between locations and vice versa. Reproductive potential was greatest amongst the northern (lower latitudes) most locations and was greatest in autumn at these locations. Seasonal patterns were less pronounced further south (higher latitudes). The length composition of females in catches differed between locations with more larger prawns found in samples from northern locations. The challenge that remains is to quantify the oceanic sources of larvae that contribute to recruitment in each nursery area and the estuarine sources of juveniles that contribute adults back to the effective spawning stock. Maintaining the effective spawning stock and important nursery areas are crucial to the sustainability of this resource.