Documentary sources to investigate multidecadal variability of droughts

Droughts are probably the natural hazard with the highest socioeconomic impact. Simultaneously, they are a very complex phenomenon; they are triggered by a diversity of physical factors and occur at a variety of time scales. Consequently, the instrumental record currently available is too short and the characterization of its multidecadal variability requires the use of natural proxies (tree rings, sedimentary records) or documentary sources. In this paper we analyse three documentary sources with potential to analyse the long-term variability of droughts: chapter acts, logbooks and chronicles. The chapter acts recorded discussions and decisions made during the assemblies of the local authorities and provide continuous and direct evidence on drought impacts. They are especially useful to study droughts between the 15th and the 19th centuries in Europe and the 17th to 18th in the former colonies. Logbooks recorded the meteorological conditions and the incidents occurred during navigation. They provide indirect information through the circulation indices that can be very helpful to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections associated to droughts. Finally, the chronicles are historiographical documents describing political and social events. They are secondary sources and the references to climatic events are discontinuous, thus their analysis must be extremely careful, but they are especially useful to study specific drought events especially prior to 15th century when no other sources are available.

Pathways to quiescence: SHARDS view on the star formation histories of massive quiescent galaxies at 1.0 < z < 1.5

We present star formation histories (SFHs) for a sample of 104 massive (stellar mass M > 10^10 M_⊙) quiescent galaxies (MQGs) at z = 1.0–1.5 from the analysis of spectrophotometric data from the Survey for High-z Absorption Red and Dead Sources (SHARDS) and HST/WFC3 G102 and G141 surveys of the GOODS-North field, jointly with broad-band observations from ultraviolet (UV) to far-infrared (far-IR). The sample is constructed on the basis of rest-frame UVJ colours and specific star formation rates (sSFRs = SFR/Mass). The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of each galaxy are compared to models assuming a delayed exponentially declining SFH. A Monte Carlo algorithm characterizes the degeneracies, which we are able to break taking advantage of the SHARDS data resolution, by measuring indices such as MgUV and D4000. The population of MQGs shows a duality in their properties. The sample is dominated (85 per cent) by galaxies with young mass-weighted ages, t_M t_M < 2 Gyr, short star formation time-scales, 〈τ〉 ∼ 60–200 Myr, and masses log(M/M_⊙) ∼ 10.5. There is an older population (15 per cent) with t_M t_M = 2–4 Gyr, longer star formation time-scales, 〈τ〉∼ 400 Myr, and larger masses, log(M/M_⊙) ∼ 10.7. The SFHs of our MQGs are consistent with the slope and the location of the main sequence of star-forming galaxies at z > 1.0, when our galaxies were 0.5–1.0 Gyr old. According to these SFHs, all the MQGs experienced a luminous infrared galaxy phase that lasts for ∼500 Myr, and half of them an ultraluminous infrared galaxy phase for ∼100 Myr. We find that the MQG population is almost assembled at z ∼ 1, and continues evolving passively with few additions to the population.

Nonequilibrium spin glass dynamics with Janus

The out of equilibrium evolution for an Edwards‐Anderson spin glass is followed for a tenth of a second, a long enough time to let us make safe predictions about the behaviour at experimental scales. This work has been made possible by Janus, an FPGA based special purpose computer. We have thoroughly studied the spin glass correlation functions and the growth of the coherence length for L = 80 lattices in 3D. Our main conclusion is that these spin glasses follow noncoarsening dynamics, at least up to the experimentally relevant time scales.

Stars and brown dwarfs in the σ Orionis cluster (Research Note) III. OSIRIS/GTC low-resolution spectroscopy of variable sources

Context. Although many studies have been performed so far, there are still dozens of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs in the young σ Orionis open cluster without detailed spectroscopic characterisation. Aims. We look for unknown strong accretors and disc hosts that were undetected in previous surveys. Methods. We collected low-resolution spectroscopy (R ~ 700) of ten low-mass stars and brown dwarfs in σ Orionis with OSIRIS at the Gran Telescopio Canarias under very poor weather conditions. These objects display variability in the optical, infrared, Hα, and/or X-rays on time scales of hours to years. We complemented our spectra with optical and near-/mid-infrared photometry. Results. For seven targets, we detected lithium in absorption, identified Hα, the calcium doublet, and forbidden lines in emission, and/or determined spectral types for the first time. We characterise in detail a faint, T Tauri-like brown dwarf with an 18 h-period variability in the optical and a large Hα equivalent width of –125  ±  15 Å, as well as two M1-type, X-ray-flaring, low-mass stars, one with a warm disc and forbidden emission lines, the other with a previously unknown cold disc with a large inner hole. Conclusions. New unrevealed strong accretors and disc hosts, even below the substellar limit, await discovery among the list of known σ Orionis stars and brown dwarfs that are variable in the optical and have no detailed spectroscopic characterisation yet.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

The Westerly Index as complementary indicator of the North Atlantic oscillation in explaining drought variability across Europe

This paper analyses the influence of different atmospheric circulation indices on the multi-scalar drought variability across Europe by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The monthly circulation indices used in this study include the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA), the Scandinavian (SCAN) and the East Atlantic-Western Russia (EA-WR) patterns, as well as the recently published Westerly Index (WI), defined as the persistence of westerly winds over the eastern north Atlantic region. The results indicate that European drought variability is better explained by the station-based NAO index and the WI than by any other combination of circulation indices. In northern and central Europe the variability of drought severity for different seasons and time-scales is strongly associated with the WI. On the contrary, the influence of the NAO on southern Europe droughts is stronger than that exerted by the WI. The correlation patterns of the NAO and WI with the SPEI show a spatial complementarity in shaping drought variability across Europe. Lagged correlations of the NAO and WI with the SPEI also indicate enough skill of both indices to anticipate drought severity several months in advance. As long as instrumental series of the NAO and WI are available, their combined use would allow inferring European drought variability for the last two centuries and improve the calibration and interpretation of paleoclimatic proxies associated with drought.