Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

The Sound of the Digital Global City

Madrid has been the center of Spanish musical scene and industry since the 80s, when “la movida” becomes the metaphor for the new colorful, young and cosmopolitan country established with the arrival of democracy. The city, in this way, is basically a place. But this sense of place started to crash with the arrival of digital music. In the new paradigm, intermediaries were supposed to disappear and music was something contained in networks and computers. The question now is how to integrate digital music, a nonphysical, individual experience, with the way in which the city of Madrid is lived through in musical terms. With the advent of digital music, concerts became the primary source of income for musicians. The centrality of the gig can be understood as the confirmation that we are living in an economy of experience. This centrality also reorganized the way in which music is produced and consumed: now, records are produced in order to create the opportunity of a musical event (band promote their tour as presentation of their latest recordings) that can be promoted in social networks and media; concerts are the places where musicians construct their fans’ communities and are the places were records are sold, not a way to know the band but to demonstrate both the support for the band and the status of the listeners. To study the place of music in the process of metropolization in Madrid we need to understand music as a field of tension