On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Discovery of "Warm Dust" galaxies in clusters at z ~ 0.3: evidence for stripping of cool dust in the dense environment?

Using far-infrared imaging from the "Herschel Lensing Survey," we derive dust properties of spectroscopically confirmed cluster member galaxies within two massive systems at z ~ 0.3: the merging Bullet Cluster and the more relaxed MS2137.3-2353. Most star-forming cluster sources (~90%) have characteristic dust temperatures similar to local field galaxies of comparable infrared (IR) luminosity (T_dust ~ 30 K). Several sub-luminous infrared galaxy (LIRG; L_IR < 10^11 L_☉) Bullet Cluster members are much warmer (T_dust > 37 K) with far-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) shapes resembling LIRG-type local templates. X-ray and mid-infrared data suggest that obscured active galactic nuclei do not contribute significantly to the infrared flux of these "warm dust" galaxies. Sources of comparable IR luminosity and dust temperature are not observed in the relaxed cluster MS2137, although the significance is too low to speculate on an origin involving recent cluster merging. "Warm dust" galaxies are, however, statistically rarer in field samples (>3σ), indicating that the responsible mechanism may relate to the dense environment. The spatial distribution of these sources is similar to the whole far-infrared bright population, i.e., preferentially located in the cluster periphery, although the galaxy hosts tend toward lower stellar masses (M_* < 10^10 M_☉). We propose dust stripping and heating processes which could be responsible for the unusually warm characteristic dust temperatures. A normal star-forming galaxy would need 30%-50% of its dust removed (preferentially stripped from the outer reaches, where dust is typically cooler) to recover an SED similar to a "warm dust" galaxy. These progenitors would not require a higher IR luminosity or dust mass than the currently observed normal star-forming population.

Measuring star formation in high-z massive galaxies: a mid-infrared to submillimetre study of the GOODS NICMOS Survey sample

We present measurements of the mean mid-infrared to submillimetre flux densities of massive (M_*≳ 10^11 M_⊙) galaxies at redshifts 1.7 < z < 2.9, obtained by stacking positions of known objects taken from the GOODS NICMOS Survey (GNS) catalogue on maps at 24 μm (Spitzer/MIPS); 70, 100 and 160 μm (Herschel/PACS); 250, 350 and 500 μm (BLAST); and 870 μm (LABOCA). A modified blackbody spectrum fit to the stacked flux densities indicates a median [interquartile] star formation rate (SFR) of SFR = 63[48, 81] M_⊙ yr^−1. We note that not properly accounting for correlations between bands when fitting stacked data can significantly bias the result. The galaxies are divided into two groups, disc-like and spheroid-like, according to their Sérsic indices, n. We find evidence that most of the star formation is occurring in n≤ 2 (disc-like) galaxies, with median [interquartile] SFR = 122[100, 150] M_⊙ yr^−1, while there are indications that the n > 2 (spheroid-like) population may be forming stars at a median [interquartile] SFR = 14[9, 20] M_⊙ yr^−1, if at all. Finally, we show that star formation is a plausible mechanism for size evolution in this population as a whole, but find only marginal evidence that it is what drives the expansion of the spheroid-like galaxies.

The SCUBA HAlf degree extragalactic survey - III. Identification of radio and mid-infrared counterparts to submillimetre galaxies

Determining an accurate position for a submillimetre (submm) galaxy (SMG) is the crucial step that enables us to move from the basic properties of an SMG sample - source counts and 2D clustering - to an assessment of their detailed, multiwavelength properties, their contribution to the history of cosmic star formation and their links with present-day galaxy populations. In this paper, we identify robust radio and/or infrared (IR) counterparts, and hence accurate positions, for over two-thirds of the SCUBA HAlf-Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES) Source Catalogue, presenting optical, 24-μm and radio images of each SMG. Observed trends in identification rate have given no strong rationale for pruning the sample. Uncertainties in submm position are found to be consistent with theoretical expectations, with no evidence for significant additional sources of error. Employing the submm/radio redshift indicator, via a parametrization appropriate for radio-identified SMGs with spectroscopic redshifts, yields a median redshift of 2.8 for the radio-identified subset of SHADES, somewhat higher than the median spectroscopic redshift. We present a diagnostic colour-colour plot, exploiting Spitzer photometry, in which we identify regions commensurate with SMGs at very high redshift. Finally, we find that significantly more SMGs have multiple robust counterparts than would be expected by chance, indicative of physical associations. These multiple systems are most common amongst the brightest SMGs and are typically separated by 2-6 arcsec, similar to 15-20/sin i kpc at z~ 2, consistent with early bursts seen in merger simulations.