On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Optical and ultraviolet observations of a strong flare in the young, single K2 dwarf LQ Hya

We present high-resolution optical echelle spectra and IUE observations during a strong flare on 1993 December 22 in the very active, young, rapidly rotating, single K2 dwarf LQ Hya. The initial impulsive phase of the flare, which started sometime between 2:42 ut and 4:07 ut, was characterized by strong optical continuum enhancement and blueshifted emission lines with broad wings. The optical chromospheric lines reached their maximum intensity at ≈ 5:31 ut, by which time the blueshift vanished and the optical continuum enhancement had sharply decreased. Thereafter, the line emission slowly decreased and the lines redshift in a gradual phase that lasted at least two more hours. The Mg II lines behaved similarly. Quiescent C IV flux levels were not recovered until 21 h later, though a data gap and a possible second flare make the interpretation uncertain. In addition to the typically flare-enhanced emission lines (e.g., H α and H β), we observe He I D_3 going into emission, plus excess emission (after subtraction of the quiescent spectrum) in other He I and several strong neutral metal lines (e.g., Mg I b). Flare enhancement of the far-ultraviolet continuum generally agrees with an Si I recombination model. We estimate the total flare energy, and discuss the broad components, asymmetries and Doppler shifts seen in some of the emission lines.