Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Stenosis triggers spread of helical Pseudomonas biofilms in cylindrical flow systems

Biofilms are multicellular bacterial structures that adhere to surfaces and often endow the bacterial population with tolerance to antibiotics and other environmental insults. Biofilms frequently colonize the tubing of medical devices through mechanisms that are poorly understood. Here we studied the helicoidal spread of Pseudomonas putida biofilms through cylindrical conduits of varied diameters in slow laminar flow regimes. Numerical simulations of such flows reveal vortical motion at stenoses and junctions, which enhances bacterial adhesion and fosters formation of filamentous structures. Formation of long, downstream-flowing bacterial threads that stem from narrowings and connections was detected experimentally, as predicted by our model. Accumulation of bacterial biomass makes the resulting filaments undergo a helical instability. These incipient helices then coarsened until constrained by the tubing walls, and spread along the whole tube length without obstructing the flow. A three-dimensional discrete filament model supports this coarsening mechanism and yields simulations of helix dynamics in accordance with our experimental observations. These findings describe an unanticipated mechanism for bacterial spreading in tubing networks which might be involved in some hospital-acquired infections and bacterial contamination of catheters.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BACKGROUND The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. RESULTS The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). CONCLUSIONS The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

Large-scale screening of a targeted Enterococcus faecalis mutant library identifies envelope fitness factors

Spread of antibiotic resistance among bacteria responsible for nosocomial and community-acquired infections urges for novel therapeutic or prophylactic targets and for innovative pathogen-specific antibacterial compounds. Major challenges are posed by opportunistic pathogens belonging to the low GC% gram-positive bacteria. Among those, Enterococcus faecalis is a leading cause of hospital-acquired infections associated with life-threatening issues and increased hospital costs. To better understand the molecular properties of enterococci that may be required for virulence, and that may explain the emergence of these bacteria in nosocomial infections, we performed the first large-scale functional analysis of E. faecalis V583, the first vancomycin-resistant isolate from a human bloodstream infection. E. faecalis V583 is within the high-risk clonal complex 2 group, which comprises mostly isolates derived from hospital infections worldwide. We conducted broad-range screenings of candidate genes likely involved in host adaptation (e.g., colonization and/or virulence). For this purpose, a library was constructed of targeted insertion mutations in 177 genes encoding putative surface or stress-response factors. Individual mutants were subsequently tested for their i) resistance to oxidative stress, ii) antibiotic resistance, iii) resistance to opsonophagocytosis, iv) adherence to the human colon carcinoma Caco-2 epithelial cells and v) virulence in a surrogate insect model. Our results identified a number of factors that are involved in the interaction between enterococci and their host environments. Their predicted functions highlight the importance of cell envelope glycopolymers in E. faecalis host adaptation. This study provides a valuable genetic database for understanding the steps leading E. faecalis to opportunistic virulence.

Prevalence of SOS-mediated control of integron integrase expression as an adaptive trait of chromosomal and mobile integrons

BACKGROUND Integrons are found in hundreds of environmental bacterial species, but are mainly known as the agents responsible for the capture and spread of antibiotic-resistance determinants between Gram-negative pathogens. The SOS response is a regulatory network under control of the repressor protein LexA targeted at addressing DNA damage, thus promoting genetic variation in times of stress. We recently reported a direct link between the SOS response and the expression of integron integrases in Vibrio cholerae and a plasmid-borne class 1 mobile integron. SOS regulation enhances cassette swapping and capture in stressful conditions, while freezing the integron in steady environments. We conducted a systematic study of available integron integrase promoter sequences to analyze the extent of this relationship across the Bacteria domain. RESULTS Our results showed that LexA controls the expression of a large fraction of integron integrases by binding to Escherichia coli-like LexA binding sites. In addition, the results provide experimental validation of LexA control of the integrase gene for another Vibrio chromosomal integron and for a multiresistance plasmid harboring two integrons. There was a significant correlation between lack of LexA control and predicted inactivation of integrase genes, even though experimental evidence also indicates that LexA regulation may be lost to enhance expression of integron cassettes. CONCLUSIONS Ancestral-state reconstruction on an integron integrase phylogeny led us to conclude that the ancestral integron was already regulated by LexA. The data also indicated that SOS regulation has been actively preserved in mobile integrons and large chromosomal integrons, suggesting that unregulated integrase activity is selected against. Nonetheless, additional adaptations have probably arisen to cope with unregulated integrase activity. Identifying them may be fundamental in deciphering the uneven distribution of integrons in the Bacteria domain.

Multiresistance in Pasteurella multocida is mediated by coexistence of small plasmids

In most gram-negative bacteria, acquired multiresistance is conferred by large plasmids compiling numerous antimicrobial resistance genes. Here, we show an evolutionary alternative strategy used by Pasteurella multocida to become resistant to multiple clinically relevant antibiotics. Thirteen beta-lactam-resistant clinical isolates, concomitantly resistant to tetracyclines and/or streptomycin as well as to sulfonamides, were studied. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis analysis revealed different profiles among the isolates, showing that clonal dissemination was not the sole event responsible for the spread of multiresistance. Each P. multocida strain carried two or three small plasmids between 4 and 6 kb in size. A direct association between resistance profile and plasmid content was found. Complete nucleotide sequencing of all plasmids revealed seven different replicons, six of them belonging to the ColE1 superfamily. All plasmids carried one, or a maximum of two, antimicrobial resistance determinants. Plasmids pB1000 and pB1002 bore bla(ROB-1), pB1001 carried tet(B), pB1003 and pB1005 carried sul2 and strA, pB1006 harbored tet(O), and p9956 bore the tet(H) gene. All plasmids except pB1002 and pB1006 were successfully transformed into Escherichia coli. pB1000, also involved in beta-lactam resistance in Haemophilus parasuis (A. San Millan et al., Antimicrob. Agents Chemother. 51:2260-2264, 2007), was mobilized in E. coli using the conjugation machinery of an IncP plasmid. Stability experiments proved that pB1000 was stable in P. multocida but highly unstable in E. coli. In conclusion, bla(ROB-1) is responsible for beta-lactam resistance in P. multocida in Spain. Coexistence and the spread of small plasmids are used by P. multocida to become multiresistant.

Spatial and Functional Organization of Pig Trade in Different European Production Systems: Implications for Disease Prevention and Control

Understanding the complexity of live pig trade organization is a key factor to predict and control major infectious diseases, such as classical swine fever (CSF) or African swine fever (ASF). Whereas the organization of pig trade has been described in several European countries with indoor commercial production systems, little information is available on this organization in other systems, such as outdoor or small-scale systems. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the spatial and functional organization of live pig trade in different European countries and different production systems. Data on premise characteristics and pig movements between premises were collected during 2011 from Bulgaria, France, Italy, and Spain, which swine industry is representative of most of the production systems in Europe (i.e., commercial vs. small-scale and outdoor vs. indoor). Trade communities were identified in each country using the Walktrap algorithm. Several descriptive and network metrics were generated at country and community levels. Pig trade organization showed heterogeneous spatial and functional organization. Trade communities mostly composed of indoor commercial premises were identified in western France, northern Italy, northern Spain, and north-western Bulgaria. They covered large distances, overlapped in space, demonstrated both scale-free and small-world properties, with a role of trade operators and multipliers as key premises. Trade communities involving outdoor commercial premises were identified in western Spain, south-western and central France. They were more spatially clustered, demonstrated scale-free properties, with multipliers as key premises. Small-scale communities involved the majority of premises in Bulgaria and in central and Southern Italy. They were spatially clustered and had scale-free properties, with key premises usually being commercial production premises. These results indicate that a disease might spread very differently according to the production system and that key premises could be targeted to more cost-effectively control diseases. This study provides useful epidemiological information and parameters that could be used to design risk-based surveillance strategies or to more accurately model the risk of introduction or spread of devastating swine diseases, such as ASF, CSF, or foot-and-mouth disease.