Reconfigurable computing for Monte Carlo simulations: results and prospects of the Janus project

We describe Janus, a massively parallel FPGA-based computer optimized for the simulation of spin glasses, theoretical models for the behavior of glassy materials. FPGAs (as compared to GPUs or many-core processors) provide a complementary approach to massively parallel computing. In particular, our model problem is formulated in terms of binary variables, and floating-point operations can be (almost) completely avoided. The FPGA architecture allows us to run many independent threads with almost no latencies in memory access, thus updating up to 1024 spins per cycle. We describe Janus in detail and we summarize the physics results obtained in four years of operation of this machine; we discuss two types of physics applications: long simulations on very large systems (which try to mimic and provide understanding about the experimental non equilibrium dynamics), and low-temperature equilibrium simulations using an artificial parallel tempering dynamics. The time scale of our non-equilibrium simulations spans eleven orders of magnitude (from picoseconds to a tenth of a second). On the other hand, our equilibrium simulations are unprecedented both because of the low temperatures reached and for the large systems that we have brought to equilibrium. A finite-time scaling ansatz emerges from the detailed comparison of the two sets of simulations. Janus has made it possible to perform spin glass simulations that would take several decades on more conventional architectures. The paper ends with an assessment of the potential of possible future versions of the Janus architecture, based on state-of-the-art technology.

A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?

Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.