Evaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy

This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

Occurrence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis across host species and European countries with evidence for transmission between wildlife and domestic ruminants

BACKGROUND Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map) causes an infectious chronic enteritis (paratuberculosis or Johne's disease) principally of ruminants. The epidemiology of Map is poorly understood, particularly with respect to the role of wildlife reservoirs and the controversial issue of zoonotic potential (Crohn's disease). Genotypic discrimination of Map isolates is pivotal to descriptive epidemiology and resolving these issues. This study was undertaken to determine the genetic diversity of Map, enhance our understanding of the host range and distribution and assess the potential for interspecies transmission. RESULTS 164 Map isolates from seven European countries representing 19 different host species were genotyped by standardized IS900--restriction fragment length polymorphism (IS900-RFLP), pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) and mycobacterial interspersed repeat unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analyses. Six PstI and 17 BstEII IS900-RFLP, 31 multiplex [SnaBI-SpeI] PFGE profiles and 23 MIRU-VNTR profiles were detected. AFLP gave insufficient discrimination of isolates for meaningful genetic analysis. Point estimates for Simpson's index of diversity calculated for the individual typing techniques were in the range of 0.636 to 0.664 but a combination of all three methods increased the discriminating power to 0.879, sufficient for investigating transmission dynamics. Two predominant strain types were detected across Europe with all three typing techniques. Evidence for interspecies transmission between wildlife and domestic ruminants on the same property was demonstrated in four cases, between wildlife species on the same property in two cases and between different species of domestic livestock on one property. CONCLUSION The results of this study showed that it is necessary to use multiple genotyping techniques targeting different sources of genetic variation to obtain the level of discrimination necessary to investigate transmission dynamics and trace the source of Map infections. Furthermore, the combination of genotyping techniques may depend on the geographical location of the population to be tested. Identical genotypes were obtained from Map isolated from different host species co-habiting on the same property strongly suggesting that interspecies transmission occurs. Interspecies transmission of Map between wildlife species and domestic livestock on the same property provides further evidence to support a role for wildlife reservoirs of infection.